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> The british economy will collapse completely, they are by far not that important globally.

The UK has the worlds fifth largest economy by GDP and the second largest economy in the EU (Germany is larger, France is smaller) [1]. To claim that they're 'not that important globally' is, frankly, asinine. Do you really think that the EU won't also get hurt by the UK leaving? If you think it won't then it's worth asking why EUR/USD has also gone sharply down today...

[1] http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/index....

Sixth, as of this morning. Thanks Boris.

UK benefits mostly from the financial industry afaik. Does anyone really think that this sector will stay 100% in this situation? Bankers are already planning the migration to Frankfurt. This might as well lead to a spiral. We'll see.

And yes, France is now a bigger economy than britain, and it's just been a few hours now.

What is the reason for moving banking to Frankfurt? Is there regulatory issues?

People do not just moving businesses for purely political reasons, there has to be concrete economic reasons.

I actually think that the UK may be less regulated than EU exchanges and that may stay in order to keep the UK more attractive.

If you do not list any real economic reasons, I think this is just scare talk.

> What is the reason for moving banking to Frankfurt?

Stability plus the fact that Frankfurt is already a major financial hub, and that Germany is a major driver of the EU economy.

The only thing that has changed as of this vote of the three things you listed is the "stability" aspect. Maybe that is sufficient to cause an exodus, but I am not sure.

The perception of London being the doorstep of the EU has just changed to London being outside of the EU, it would make zero sense for the EU financial center to be technically outside of it.

> What is the reason for moving banking to Frankfurt? Is there regulatory issues?

London is one of the biggest (or rather the biggest) hub for EUR-denominated trading and AFAIK they're only allowed to do so because they're EU member. There's also the practice called passporting: Bonds, Insurances etc that are regulated in one EU country are allowed to be sold in all EU countries. The UK had the most favorable regulations for those bonds, so a lot of them moved to London. Now that London might soon not be part of the EU any more, the banks at least need a residence in a EU member state. Some might consider to substantially reduce their London operations.

>Is there regulatory issues?

lack of a free trade agreement with europe comes to mind.

As another commenter already noted, the common market covers goods, people and services, including financial services. So in order to sell financial services, you need to be located in the EU. That just changed in the case of London, with obvious consequences:

— Ben Thompson (@BBCBenThompson) June 24, 2016

Sources at Morgan Stanley tell BBC it's already begun process of moving 2,000 London based investment banking staff to Dublin or Frankfurt

I think in the same direction. Not much will change.

Funny how the leave voters of fear and spite are now here talking about punishing the uk out of spite :)

"Britain slips from 5th largest economy to 6th (behind growth-less France) in the space of five hours" - Channel 4 journalist Jon Snow

>Jon Snow

He knows nothing....

Sorry couldn't resist.

We slipped, yes, but the FTSE100 is close to 80% recovered from this morning whilst the GBP to USD exchange rate is currently where it was at in February of this year.

Our televised news hosts like to dramatise, it seems.

Meanwhile, the Spanish market is down is down 11%, Belgian one is down 5.5%, France down 7%, Germany down 6%.

It's looking like Europe is hurting more from this announcement than Britain at the moment.

UK has a high debt load and is now more isolated than it was. Those are problematic when they are tied together. But I think that what is a major bonus for the UK is that they control their own currency and possibly their debt is issued in UK Pounds (is it?) -- that could be very useful in making their exports attractive if shit hits the fan.

If their debt is not in UK Pounds, it will limit their economic flexibility severely, and I think could lead to a default if things go bad (which we are currently quite far away from right now.)

Thus is the UK debt in UK Pounds? Or is it mostly denominated in Euros, Yen or USD?

The UK national debt is all in Pounds.

But whether or not that is an advantage is hard to establish, that all depends on how much of an export position the UK will have post brexit.

The UK can inflate its debt away, that is always a nice option to have. Greece couldn't do that, and that was a major reason why it was being crushed.

They would not just devaluate the debt but the domestic assets as well.

It really depends at which point in time you're observing. France and the UK have been neck to neck for decades.

From what I was reading during the last Scottish independence vote, if Scotland goes independent then they take almost all of the UK's oil and gas industries and a surprising amount of the economy with them. If Scotland goes independent and joins the EU, it definitely sounds like Britain's economy could collapse under the pressure of British companies having to spend EU market fees to trade with their subsidiaries that lease Scottish oil fields, alone.

We are living in interesting times, it would seem.

    > this may be good news for the EU, even when we
    > sacrifice a generation of UK citizens for our benefit.

As a British citizen, I'm appalled by the sentiment expressed here. It flies in the face of the ideas and values upon which the EU was founded. I'm not going to say anything beyond that.

As an Irish citizen I have to say that I certainly don't see it as a hood thing for Europe. It's influence will be sorely missed for what it's worth.

It's very unfortunate that you won't be going with them. You are close to them and have the same language. It just makes sense, but sadly the old disputes over religion (looking silly now) have led to today's lack of unified islands.

What doesn't make sense is having a commonwealth/fiveeyes country bolted on the side of the EU.

Mate if you're talking about Ireland then with respect you don't know what you're on about. For starters Ireland is neither a commonwealth country or (as far as I know) a five eyes country. Secondly Ireland is one of the countries with the highest EU approval ratings. And for good reason, the EU has been overwhelmingly good for Ireland. There is literally not a chance in hell of us leaving. Although the relationship between Ireland and Britain is strong, and certainly much better than it use to be, I think most people would be wary of becoming to dependent on them without the EU as a counterbalance given our history.

I mean the UK. The UK is a commonwealth country and a fiveeyes country. It makes no sense for the UK to be in the EU.

The fact that Ireland has high EU approval ratings is immaterial to the fact that it's not logical to have it be apart from the UK. This is a tragic artifact of history. Ideally this would be fixed, but I agree it isn't likely to happen.

You wouldn't need a counterbalance if things were done right, which is to have the larger chunks (today's England, Scotland, Republic of Ireland) be split into more similar-sized chunks. Having a couple dozen chunks (called what you like: parish, county, state, province...) is probably sane.

And let's not forget that about half of the Brits wanted to stay.

there's such a thing like "tyranny of the masses".

Yeah. No idea why he said that. Also, why does he think "we" are sacrificing anything? Last time I checked "we" didn't get a vote on this one.

non-native english. Of course I do not mean that bloody stuff like in ancient times. More in terms of a strategic move for which I don't know a better wording.

I don't know where you're from, but here in Germany we generally try to avoid sacrificing people (both literally and figuratively).

Yes. Every divorce here in germany is basically love and flowers and based on constructive respect. Sure.

We do not actively "sacrifice" them. They voted for themselves to go out, they believe it's better to them. Okay. But why should the EU not do what it can the make the best of the situation? Do not answer with european spirit, the vote was against this, for the hope of a little better financial situation (aka: selfishness).

I really support everyone who needs help whenever I can, but I can't stand this behaviour, expecting mercy for their own selfishness. And as it seems, we have more important problems where real lifes are on stake, syrian immigrants for example.

But it's a common sentiment across the EU.

There are a lot of people across the EU who are essentially totalitarian in nature. They believe remaking Europe into a new EU country is civilisation itself, and relish the prospect of a trade war with the UK which they are convinced they will win.

essentially, yes. I think i'm in that camp, too.

I believe this has to do with the globalization and the problem it brings for local people. To be relevant in the world, one should be strong, united and of reasonable size (economically, ...). If the EU would collapse now into individual states, each of them (esp eastern europe) would suffer greatly and maybe has to deal with russia. How much of a help the NATO is? just ask ukraine.

Who gives a shit about "relevance" in the world? Politicians care about "relevance", ordinary people care about quality of life. And there are plenty of small countries outside the EU or other large trading blocs that have high quality of life.

As an American what shocks me is the accusations of racism, the anger, and the outright attacks on the British. Talk about fair-weather friends.

I'm from Eastern Europe, have lots of friends who live and work in the UK. To see how important the anti-immigrant, anti-Eastern European discourse was as part of the "Leave" campaign was a real kick in the balls, so to speak. Hence the "the accusations of racism, the anger, and the outright attacks on the British"

They never seemed to be really interested in the EU, often wanting their "own" thing, like keeping the Pound instead of adopting the Euro.

Also, I found countries keeping rich royals around a bit suspicious to begin with.

Yes, the outright attacks are not ok but if you look at the more vocal parts of the British Brexit voters a lot clearly have racist motivations. People I considered almost friends posted on Facebook about throwing all Muslims out after brexit, blaming foreigners in general for a lot that is wrong. Things like: 'it has gone too far, I feel like I live in Islamabad here! OUT!'. These people voted for the Brexit to refuse and throw out foreigners. In their minds anyway. So it is not strange as that is what people see.

There are many who voted for other reasons but those are far less vocal.

It was expected that racists would vote for brexit loudly anyway. The problem is why everyone else, and especially what you would consider moderate people voted against EU (which is not really a vote against immigration; and it will barely stop it)

Racism was one of the major drivers of the 'brexit' camp, as well as a whole pile of fearmongering.

The attacks on the 'British' are just as dumb, since a lot of people (50%, plus a majority of the Scots and the Irish) are being dragged into this.

It's dumb beyond understanding, but it's a nice insight in how much of the lessons learned during the last two world wars have been forgotten.

> It's dumb beyond understanding, but it's a nice insight in how much of the lessons learned during the last two world wars have been forgotten.

It's a cycle - every 3 generations like clockwork. The generation that goes to war comes back swearing "never again", their children grow up hearing war stories, but everything is going well around them as they grow up. Their children's' children have long forgotten the lessons of conflict, and proceed to uproot the trees their grandparent planted. Rinse and repeat.

> Talk about fair-weather friends.

To be fair, we continental Europeans have been at the butt end of patronizing hogwash and armchair economical and ethical advise from our Imperial friends from the island, so a bit of a role reversal is appropriate.

As an american you should realize that nationalist sentiments are stronger in europe. It's like baptists or racists or antifeminists lashing out against others in america. The problem is that nationalist sentiments are a lot more dangerous. The saddest of all is that there was barely any talk of talking out a deal instead of separation.

OTOH i think most europeans do not consider britain racist relative to some continental countries.

Unfortunately, unintelligent & selfish people to put it kindly are quite more vocal; that's probably a reason why extreme options can seem more attractive to some. Anyway, please ignore.

As a citizen of another EU country, it pains me to she what's happening, some people just want to blame all their problems to a common "enemy" and at that point, demagogues use that for their own gain, I've seen it and keep seeing it on my country in a grand scale.

My hope is that somehow a good deal between UK & EU comes off that which the least amount of change, but I'm probably wishfully thinking.

Which is unlikely. If UK walks out of all this, with all the perks it asks for and even less responsibility, just for kindness, then EU will inch towards to be a bigger failure.

Of course things are going to change. As a good outcome, changes should be neutral, not punishment, but noticeable. So in other words, still hurts.

> As a British citizen, I'm appalled by the sentiment expressed here. It flies in the face of the ideas and values upon which the EU was founded.

Isn't that the point, though? UK just said "no" to half a century of following these principles - making sure there are consequences means protecting EU ideals, not harming them.

Sure, in practice there will be plenty of replacement treaties - but for EU _and_ for those principles it's quite ok if UK ends up 6th or 7th economy instead of 5th. We're not talking about bankrupting anybody here.

52% of 70% of the voting population said "No".

The argument could be made that the 30% that did not vote deserve what they have coming for not bothering to take part in such a monumental national decision. Not voting means "I don't care", so you let other people decide and then you live with the consequences.

> As a British citizen, I'm appalled by the sentiment expressed here. It flies in the face of the ideas and values upon which the EU was founded. I'm not going to say anything beyond that.

This is basically a divorce -- and those things generally are filled with hurt feelings, lashing out, clearly competing interests and a scramble for the valuable assets. It is likely going to be more problematic on the weaker party (the UK) than it is on the stronger party (the EU.)

Really? We just decided to not be part of the EU and now you expect them to treat us with reverence? We just told them that their club was shit so now they are saying “if the club is shit you won't want all these things the club provides and we will now concentrate on looking after out club members at your expense“.

The loss to our economy is going to go some where, manufacturing jobs lost in Sunderland will go to Greece or Lithuania where they will welcome the employment, the same will happen to service industry too. The EU has a responsibility to its member states not to us anymore.

Both sides can be appalled though. Did you not expect bitter feelings? Whatever values the EU was founded on, it's now irrelevant for britain.

Bad news for all EU citizens, even worse news for UK citizens.

We hackernews folks will be OK. As always, the vulnerable will suffer most.

> The british economy will collapse completely

It won't but it will shrink significantly.

> even when we sacrifice a generation of UK citizens for our benefit.

Is the kind of language that has no place here or in any other discussion.

Keep in mind that a good portion of the UK citizens voted 'remain' and that we do not do any sacrificing at all, since that includes me.

You're right. We don't need to sacrifice anyone and it's against EU values.

They have just committed suicide.

Sour grapes!

- The Euro collapses as countries leave

- Spain and Italy leave the EU

- the EU collapses completely within 20 years

Look, we can all make wild claims!

I voted remain, but your list is a farce. It's a list of the absolute worse case scenarios.

Obama's gone, the US isn't going to follow through on that threat. It was just fear mongering because they liked the status quo. It was actually a massive misjudgement of the British psyche by Obama. He threatened us thinking it would help the Remain camp! That's not how Brits think, he probably convinced more people to vote Leave with that threat then anyone else, it was a stupid thing to do.

The EU won't be too crazy as it needs access to the UK's market to keep their own economies afloat. It's in the interests of some EU politicians + bureaucrats, not in the interest of the actual states or companies in those to economically alienate the UK now. There's a lot of anti-EU feeling in a lot of other countries and attacking the UK using the unelected bureaucrats of the EU will fuel that, not reduce it.

NI won't leave as it might start another civil war.

The UK economy won't "collapse completely". Not important globally? The 5th or 6th biggest economy is "not that important globally". That's simply not true.

EDIT: Also, what's actually happening in the EU at the moment? You might argue that they're attacking US companies. Data privacy laws. Google anti-trust laws. And the UK is leaving that? But somehow we'd be at the back of the queue...

It's a ridiculous comment in many ways but there is an interesting glimpse there of how people are thinking about this.

As for Google and Amazon and their datacenters in Ireland, as well as all the tax deals there I think that tax advisors are right now working overtime on how to limit the damage to their Irish clientele.

Maybe a good time to buy land around Frankfurt a/M.

There are 2 Irelands. Northern Ireland is part of the UK, Republic of Ireland is a sovereign nation. The latter is where all those DCs are.

> The latter is where all those DCs are.

Ah, I thought some of them were North of the border. Foresight at work!

not really, more RoI giving massive discounts on tax at work.

Most tech on the island is south of the border due to that.

I can't talk for Spain but Italy leaving is not going to happen. The current government is weak, with a big constitutional referendum planned for September. If they win, they're basically locked into power for another 3 years minimum; if they lose, there won't be new elections right away because everyone agrees the resulting electoral law is not fit for purpose. A temporary executive would never even dream of making things even worse by calling an EU referendum.

Only IF the current government loses in September AND a new electoral law can be agreed AND an euroskeptic party wins a full majority (there is currently only one with a realistic shot at majority) THEN a referendum might be considered, and tbh it would be pretty low on the agenda anyway. The fastest this could happen, realistically, is sometime in 2018, and a lot of things can happen in 2 years.

Besides, Italy was an EU founder and public opinion is strongly pro-EU by tradition, unlike the UK. This position was only dented by the Euro problems, with a couple of fixes (like Eurobonds) things would be totally fine.

>> "NI won't leave as it might start another civil war."

I think the complete opposite. This gives NI a real debate on independence. We now all face issues bigger than the usual partisan/sectarian nonsense. Border controls will effect a lot of people. That coupled with the many other problems could potentially lead to people putting their usual differences to one side as there are bigger fish to fry. And stop with the 'civil war' hyperbole. We are past that.

How do you mean 'hyperbole'? As far as I know there are still killings and bombs even today. Do you feel a reunification campaign wouldn't escalate into a civil war? You might know better than me, but it sounds like wishful thinking.

The DUP was campaigning for leave and several counties, ones not on the border, returned an overall leave majority.

So I'm surprised you believe the unionists will allow what they've been fighting against for a century to just happen in a peaceful referendum? I'd love to be wrong, I have no insight to how the more extreme elements of each side think these days, are the troubles completely behind the country?

>> "How do you mean 'hyperbole'? As far as I know there are still killings and bombs even today"

There are but on a small scale. Off the top of my head I can think of 1 shooting and 2 or 3 'successful' bombs in the past 5 years targeted at security services. Obviously not common in most countries but nothing on the scale of the past. Shootings tend to be punishment style attacks within communities, usually involving drugs. None of these acts get support from anyone these days.

I think the DUP was the only party out of the 5 or 6 main parties advocating for leave. It's also not great for them that they hold the first minister position, advocated for leave, and within Northern Ireland people voted to remain. Similar position to the one Cameron is left in if you ask me.

>> "So I'm surprised you believe the unionists will allow what they've been fighting against for a century to just happen in a peaceful referendum? I'd love to be wrong, I have no insight to how the more extreme elements of each side think these days, are the troubles completely behind the country?"

The troubles are very much in the past. There are obviously still those who cling to the past but they tend to be concentrated in a few small communities with zero support outside those communities. Even when you look at the average person who would consider themselves nationalist all they really care about is keeping the peace we have. I think overall the climate is there with the people to have a debate about it - with the politicians not so much. When we have tactics in place that allow politicians to say no to even debating some social issues (gay marriage, abortion etc.) it's difficult to imagine them debating an issue as serious as this. I believe there are provisions in the peace agreement for a border poll so if those are met then it doesn't require anyone to allow the debate, it's automatically in the public arena where I believe an honest debate could occur.

> The DUP was campaigning for leave and several counties, ones not on the border, returned an overall leave majority.

fwiw, Northern Ireland consists of just six counties. Only one does not share a border and only it returned an overall leave majority.

> the brexit is a strong signal for the other EU states to get their shit together and fix obvious problems

As a fellow European I thought about this too, as I was trying to see a silver lining in all this. And then I went to read the comments on the French paper's Le Figaro website and got depressed again. Most of the people commenting in there really believed that the EU is to be accused of everything that's been going wrong with the French economy. If we do get a French referendum and if France leaves then the EU will just die. It pains me to put this down in words, but it's a valid possibility.

Well, what will happen in the UK in the next couple of weeks/months/years might just be enough to show by example what the good bits of being a part of the EU are.

The big mistake the brexit voters made is that they thought that the UK as it was before the EU would have been a better place to be in today if the EU had never happened. Contrary to their belief the sum is a lot more than the parts but explaining that to the electorate is a challenge that modern politics (soundbites and tweets) is badly equipped to deal with.

Much easier to push the emotional buttons of xenophobia and economic malaise due to 'others'.

Today's EU is like America prior to the ratification of the US constitution. It's not suitable for long-term functionality.

You probably ought to convince Switzerland (an enclave) and Norway to join. You probably ought to convince Greece to leave. You then need federal taxes, a unified military command, a head of state, a single EU citizenship, and all the other trappings of a real country.

For whatever it's worth, as a European who has some reservations about the EU, even if it brings many good things too. I'll just say that if they start "punishing" the UK for leaving, my support for the EU will drop significantly. The need to keep member states in the union by threats would be a complete joke, and I would rather just call it a day.

Well said. There's a big difference between "want to stay" and "afraid to leave". If the EU isn't working for the people, then it's pretty hard to support.

I 'm afraid it is going to become a common trope to frame everything that happens from now on upon whether it "punishes" the UK or not. The EU is now an economic area that is much more aligned to be honest, and the UK is a competitor. E.g. the euro is now a direct competitor to the GBP. The strong EU countries have greater coordination , and i expect that they will use it to their benefit, with the weaker economies following them, not because they are afraid to leave, but because they believe its success as a more cohesive union.

There is a higher chance of the EU collapsing completely than for the UK economy to collapse and for it to turn into a demolished and isolated state. The general sentiments of your reply are exactly what people used to convince so many UK voters to vote for exit. The UK and the BrExit isn't a sacrificial lamb for you to gloat over.

> The british economy will collapse completely

Unlikely. More likely is that they will remain in the European Economic Area ("the internal market"). This means keeping their trade relations the same as they are, including all the EU regulations, but without a way to influence how the regulations evolve. In return they will save some membership fees (a net amount of about 80 Euros per person per year, IIRC). It's what Norway has done for decades, and what Norway has decided to keep doing in two or three referendums. Seems to be working OK for them.

Of course this doesn't "fix" perceived problems with immigration, because the EEA includes the "four freedoms": free movements of goods, persons, services, and capital. But it seems that even a lot of Leave supporters find the single market more important than xenophobia.

The US did a free trade agreement with my country, Chile. I doubt they find the UK not important enough to try to make a deal.

Agreed. The "back of the queue" comment made by President Obama was merely posturing by the administration and doesn't necessarily reflect the views of Americans as a whole or even American politicians as a whole.

The US has free trade agreements with a lot of South American states due to them being linked by land, but even then it wasn't a fast process. I can certainly believe that the UK isn't high on the priority list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_free_trade_agree...

Be careful what you wish for, something like 20% of German build cars are exported to Britain

The dogma of ever closer EU integration and the creation of a superstate is just as bad as the dogma of those who voted to withdraw from the EU

A "collapsed economy" is fertile ground for fascism and aggression. Be careful about what you're wishing for here.

> A "collapsed economy" is fertile ground for fascism and aggression. Be careful about what you're wishing for here.

Of course, this is the opposite of what Boris Johnson and Farage would want, right? You might be forgetting that no one outside of the UK could have changed this - the UK will reap what it (the majority of voters) has sown.

That's one perverse curiosity question answered for me; the final one will be answered in the US in November! Good luck to the denizens on both sides of the pond.

You wish that the EU will punish the UK.

But that won't happen, partly because we don't want to punish the people living there. Partly because the UK is important after all. Partly because firms want to keep trading with the UK and want to keep there centers there, instead of moving around.

And at the end, they are the ones calling the shots.

>even when we sacrifice a generation of UK citizens for our benefit

Such good news/s

Yes, I also think this is a chance to strengthen the rest of the EU.

It may also be a start of countries leaving, but if the rest of the EU comes together and says "hey, we need to double down on this or else what the hell are we even doing" they may do the former.

Which is a good thing imo, but a lot of people don't think so...

The UK imports a lot of stuff from the mainland, they'll probably end up in the economic area (with all the strings attached) but with no say in the EU... maybe don't let the masses vote next time heh

I read this post coming from a German, since you promoted Frankfurt and Berlin.

As an Englishman, let me tell you somethings from an opposing view.

- International companies won't be moving to ireland/continent. The UK at one point wasn't as integrated and was doing quite well. It will do again.

The financial industry will not leave London. It's not going to happen. There are many reasons why. Keep dreaming.

London is the best startup in Europe currently.

- Sure the EU can be hard as possible, but then so can the UK. There are many EU countries which export to the UK. It's not just a one way thing.

- The British economy will not collapse. How you can think that I have no idea. Yes the pound did go down, it's gone down many times in history. But it will recover again. The Bank of England, already accounted for this. There is no panic.

- The US said the UK is not that important? Says Obama because his dad is from Kenya hates the UK. But in reality it actually is. Germany, Spain, all other countries of EU are not as important as the UK.

- Scotland will most likely want to exit. They are 4 million people after all. But when they do exit. All the British companies currently there, will leave to go to London. They'll join as another country like Estonia or worse off. I don't know if Europe will have them lol.

- N. Ireland won't exit. They are deeply patriotic people and see themselves as British.

Sorry. But I really don't think you know what you are talking about!

Well, his post was pretty negative towards the UK, yours is a bit too positive...

IMO

Plenty of companies will move to Ireland/Germany.

I think the EU/UK will reach agreements that are more or less the same as they are now (making Leave a bit pointless).

The economy will not collapse, but it will be worse off short term.

I don't think US cares more about either the EU/UK. Equal for all.

If Scotland goes - why would those companies not move to the EU, since it would be about the same difficulty wise?

Yes, we have deeply opposing views here, obviously. I can clearly see where you're coming from and follow the logic.

Having said that, I strongly disagree, see my initial post. Only the future will tell who will be right (or none of us?). Political Power Play is a gamble, and I bet strongly on a more united europe. Others do different bets, as seen in the brexit vote. All sides contain competent and educated people finally.

> Says Obama because his dad is from Kenya hates the UK.

You lost me here.

> I read this post coming from a German, since you promoted Frankfurt and Berlin.

Probably right.

> International companies won't be moving to ireland/continent. The UK at one point wasn't as integrated and was doing quite well. It will do again.

Yes, but back then the EU was a lot less strong than it is today, even without the UK as a part of it.

> The financial industry will not leave London. It's not going to happen. There are many reasons why. Keep dreaming.

250 Billion worth of capital has already fled judging by the drop of the pound, and more is likely to follow. Yes, the financial hub of Europe will shift its COG to Frankfurt. That's something that a re-entry in the EU of England at a later date will not be able to recover.

> London is the best startup in Europe currently.

I assume you left out 'centre' or 'hub', and it was so until today. But if I were starting a start-up I'd definitely think twice now about whether or not to do this in the UK, and London specifically.

> ure the EU can be hard as possible, but then so can the UK. There are many EU countries which export to the UK. It's not just a one way thing.

The relative sizes of the parties dictate the likely outcome of such negotiations. Already there are some pretty clear lines drawn and those will only become more stark in time. This was an 'own goal' if there ever was one.

> The US said the UK is not that important? Says Obama because his dad is from Kenya hates the UK. But in reality it actually is. Germany, Spain, all other countries of EU are not as important as the UK.

This is mis-informed. The UK is important as a country within the EU. Once the UK leaves (and especially if the UK then breaks up even further) it is no longer that important a country.

> Scotland will most likely want to exit. They are 4 million people after all. But when they do exit. All the British companies currently there, will leave to go to London. They'll join as another country like Estonia or worse off. I don't know if Europe will have them lol.

I'm not sure if 'lol' is something that you'd want to use about anything today. And Scotland is definitely a viable country and would most likely be very welcome in the EU.

And all the British companies there might actually see Scotland as the backdoor to remain in the EU, and I would not be surprised if they more than anything else would push to achieve this.

> N. Ireland won't exit. They are deeply patriotic people and see themselves as British.

That one is a toss-up, but not hugely important for the EU, though it would be hugely important to the UK, if they wish to keep that 'U'.

In other words: the UK has made itself a bit player overnight and chances are that only England will remain at the end of all this, with a substantially reduced economy and a very tiny market to sell into. It will hurt all those who voted 'exit' the hardest, and it will be studied for decades to come as an example of how an electorate can be manipulated to vote against its own interests.

> International companies won't be moving to ireland/continent.

Probably true, but they will certainly strengthen their position on the mainland.

> The financial industry will not leave London.

Also true. The reasons mostly being lack of regulation and corruption :P

> The British economy will not collapse.

True. (I hope.)

> The US said the UK is not that important? Says Obama because his dad is from Kenya hates the UK.

WTF

> Germany, Spain, all other countries of EU are not as important as the UK.

Germany has a higher GDP than the UK. Never mind the combined GDP of some of the bigger EU member states. I'm not sure why you think the UK is that important.

> Scotland will most likely want to exit.

Yup.

> N. Ireland won't exit.

No idea, but it sounds reasonable.