My biggest fear is another Scottish referendum... the last one was bitter and polarizing.
I have just spent the last 20 minutes drafting letters to my MP and MSP basically telling them I do not want another referendum.
I have just spent the last 20 minutes drafting letters to my MP and MSP basically telling them I do not want another referendum.
Northern Ireland is also going to be one to watch.
Northern Ireland has absolutely no chance of seceding, they can't go it alone as a separate country, and there's absolutely no appetite for unification from either side.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-norther...
The EU train is leaving and governments need to make a decision whether they want to get on or stay off.
Which sides? Sinn Féin politicians have already called for a unification vote...
Scotland is less messy and would separate fairly easily imo (but you never know British nationalism is on the rise so letting them leave could be seen as something to prevent at all costs)
This would be the first time that those who want Irish unity could actually sway a significant number of unionist voters. Violence would ruin that opportunity so I doubt it would happen. This vote has increased the possibility of their goals being achieved politically. If anything I would expect violence to rise on the unionist side if it did look like a border poll was going to take place and not go their way.
There is now. Leaving the EU actually brings the Ireland debate away from typically nationalist/unionist politics to actual real issues. If the Republic has to secure it's border with the North (as I believe countries on the border of Europe are required to do so) consider the impact on people who live in border towns. A lot of people living just within the north side of the border work in the south and vice versa - they would have to go through border control every morning and evening. And what happens to the large number of ROI citizens living and working in NI (and vice versa). This actually opens the debate on unity up and brings it past the typical dividing line politics. It will also likely fuel nationalist support as the democratic will of people in NI (and Scotland) is essentially ignored thanks to people in England. It's a very strange situation. I think it's still highly unlikely but if Irish unification is ever going to happen this will be the catalyst.
It's just not that there would be border control, there's also question would they need visas to get through the border control?
No need to be condescending. Border controls are one issue. I didn't say they were the only one. Today's decision is going to cause many issues for Northern Ireland and if a persons daily life starts to get affected by the decision they might eventually be willing to put to the side their built-in unionist/nationalist mentality and figure out what's actually best for the people. I don't know what that is but ruling out unification or independence would be silly.
But this time I might actually vote for independence because I'm not sure a Britain outside the EU is one I want to live in.
Now the next referendum will be a lot more significant since it'll effectively be a UK vs EU decision. Either you follow the English into isolation or you suddenly have a very real border between England and Scotland with customs&immigrations checkpoints and similar things.
Scotland is part of an existing member state of the EU, but it is not a member state of the EU. Were it to become independent, it would likely have to join the EU as a new member state.
There's perhaps an argument to be made that if the UK broke up, each successor would have a claim to be a successor to the UKs treaty obligations and benefits in general, which might carry some weight (though would be extremely complicated for a treaty arrangement like the EU) if it happened before the UK formally started the process of withdrawing from the EU (if it happened after that, even viewing Scotland as a successor to the breaking-up-UK would leave it a short-term member of the EU in the process of exiting under the Article 50 process, inheriting the exit date that the UK has, and needing to negotiate its own exit agreement if it wanted anything but the default exit terms.)
That being said, I reckon they will have another indy referendum regardless but I also see three potential scenarios that might stop it going ahead:
1. Britain prospers like crazy now we are out of the EU 2. The EU collapses (I think this is likely. Maybe not in the next 2 years but likely!) 3. A bunch of other countries decide to flee the EU as well. This would bring about 2 I reckon.
Imagine if Germany decided to leave! That would kill the EU stone dead I reckon.