Germany Runs Up Against the Limits of Renewables
technologyreview.com
technologyreview.com
If energy is free or even profitable to consume you'd make money pumping water uphill during the day and using that potential energy later to produce power through conventional hydro-electric means. This is completely insane if you have to pay for power at conventional rates, but we're entering a new era where time of day costs might go all over the place without arbitrage like this to even things out.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludington_Pumped_Storage_Power...
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/pump-up-the-stor...
That said, for reliable baseline energy, you're not going to beat nuclear for a while. Modern nuclear "waste" is usable as fuel in Breeder type reactors (LFTR, Traveling Wave reactors) and the waste from those is containable with modern technology.
You're going beyond advocacy into sheer lunacy. Nuclear power plants do not take longer to build than the WWI, WWII (including incidentally the entire Manhattan project), and the Korean, Vietnemese, Iraqi, and Afghanistan wars combined. And I could probably jam some more things in there, since I'm not really looking up the time frames and just eyeballing it... because that's how stupid your claim is.
I don't know whether to hope that you realize the degree of BS you're spouting and that you're being deliberately mendacious, or to hope that you actually believe it and are at least being honest to what you think about the world.
It doesn't matter that it takes far less than 49 years to actually construct the physical manifestation of a nuclear power plant.
What matters is why it took so long to build.
You can't solve those problems by insulting people.
http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-pro...
There are also a bunch of companies working on small modular reactors built in factories and shipped to the install site, which I think would qualify as "shortcuts in the offing." Some of this work is supported by the DOE.
Between perpetually 10 years' away jesus-tech grid-scale batteries and letting the invisible hand catch up and fix the demand side of fluctuating supply, I'd bet on the latter, personally.
Especially since it's already happening (c.f. aluminum smelters time shifting electricity demand).
Even MIT outlets don't bother to explain why this is a bad thing, just stating that a price is negative is enough to demonstrate there's a problem.
Transforming renewable energy in electricity is anyway pretty ... stupid (lot of loss) and counter productive (handling surge, storing, grid complexification, poor capacity planning that requires even more fossil energy in high power mode to adapt to peak in demand)
The real solution maybe to adapt our lives to the seasonality, and maybe to use wind power ... well to make wind mill for instance. Mechanic to mechanic energy transformation is not stupid.
Right now, renewable energy is a big scam that can not sustain and that is used by thieves to still tax money in the name of good intentions.
What are you even talking about? Have you invented a new mechanic energy transmission process with no losses? If we are calling names, I'd say that mechanic energy transmission is even more "stupid". If your mechanic energy collection gizmo is not right where you want it, then you'll have tremendous losses transmitting it.
Not that it matters too much in case of renewables. You just need a bigger collecting system.
Also, electric energy is fungible. You can convert it into almost anything you need, including mechanical power. Good luck posting to hacker news with your mechanical energy.
The solution is not going back to medieval era. It is to figure out better solutions. Renewable energy is not a scam. The market may be heavily subsidized (not everywhere), but that's how you jump-start an industry. Market forces may prevent development, but that's a different problem.
Not to mention that everything is subsidized in some way. Coal power plants should be paying for the pollutants (including radiation) that they are releasing in the atmosphere. In fact, all current power plants (including hydro) are subsidized. If not by money directly, by the law.
I assume the reason is that these "negative prices" are just fictions, only available to a few select existing customers, ie artifacts of regulation.
But the article is actually too vague for me to understand what the actual regulatory and political constraints of the situation are.
They seem pretty press-shy about it though - possibly because this is serving as a kind of covert subsidy that wouldn't look too good under WTO rules.
[0]http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1595235...
[1]https://www.epa.gov/coalash/coal-ash-basics
[2]http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-r...
[3]http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/as-u-s-shutte...
And all the while we are the only sane people in our own eyes.
This is so wrong I don't know if you're pushing some sort of agenda or just trolling.
Read the facts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Germany
In 2015, the total power generation in Germany was 559 TWh. Renewables amount to about 121 TWh, i.e. about 22%. [0]
Newbuild house prices have increased by 40% in the last ten years
That sounds like a lot. From what I can find, construction prices have increased by about 20% since 2005 -- that goes for virtually all kinds of construction, including road construction[1][2]. Must be all the heat exchangers in those new roads... I'm not sure if that figure is corrected for overall inflation, it doesn't appear to be (cumulative inflation in Germany since 2005 is about 15%[3]).
[0] https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_de.htm [1] https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikationen/Thematisch/Preise/B... [2] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baupreisindex#/media/File:Baup... [3] http://www.zinsen-berechnen.de/inflationsrechner.php
http://m.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article156130737/Energie...
Primary energy is 3704 TWh[0], so 3% jives with the numbers I gave (so you were off by a factor of 3). 27% of that is heating, 39% transportation. The key to reducing those is gains in efficiency, ie. things like insulation, combined heat and power, renewable heat on the one hand, more efficient cars and more public transportation on the other hand.
[0] https://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/E/energiestatistiken-...
It was a, if not the major topic in the first federal election I was allowed to vote in.
There were no deaths directly attributable to radiation exposure (although 300 Tepco workers were exposed to above lifetime legal limit radiation). WHO estimated life time risk of thyroid cancer for infants in the immediate area increased by 0.5 per cent, relying on the linear no threshold hypothesis (an untested hypothesis that the UN has recently backed away from).
More generally, the IPCC calculated nuclear fission to be the second safest form of power generation in human morbidity and mortality terms end to end, mining to waste disposal (the first being hydro electric). The stupidity of the German decision makes me want to scream.
And most German plants are like that.
Then add the fact that German inspections are a corrupt business regarding nuclear plants, and that the nuclear waste storage was a huge disaster polluting tap water for a large area, and you can see where the problems come from.
One of our largest nuclear waste storages, and it’s all leaking into the ground water.
At any rate, shutting down all German nuke plants because of something like this is akin to shutting down all coal mines because someone held a BBQ and accidentally started a fire.
It was Angela Merkel's decision. She's a physicist.
Heck, as long as it was properly guarded, you could store the waste in my backyard shed without any health issues arising.
They're like the kids in high school who decided they were avowed communists, except now all grown up.
I do not think relying so much on nuclear energy was a bad move but it should have been a transitional thing (to renewable energy, fusion, anything else?). And it requires good forward thinking, commitment and the kind of leader we have not had for decades.
Finally, the EPR looks more and more like a big mistake. Smaller designs might have been more successful and offered more agility in time of crisis.
The continual leaking of nuclear waste into the ground water at the Asse II underground nuclear waste storage site is a huge issue.
And so, already in '98, the Energiewende was started.
In the early 2000s Merkel tried to roll back the Energiewende, but was forced to roll back the rolling back when Fukushima happened, and people realized we had plants of the same construction type, where continually the emergency generators failed, and everyone said "nothing wrong, even if the generators fail, it can never go up".
German nuclear controls are just as much of a joke as nuclear controls in Japan or the US, and in most countries, they’re even worse.
One nuclear plant in Germany has bribed regulators for years to just sign it off, despite it violating regulations. Then there’s the plant in Belgium, where construction workers drilled through the containment vessel to screw a holder for a fire extinguisher on it.
Holes stayed open for many years.
Nuclear is a nice concept in theory, but in any capitalistic society, it can not work, because greed will end up with companies trying to save money, and if bribes are cheaper than following the laws, they will do that. If lobbying is cheaper, they’ll do that. If they can just leave the country and can’t be held liable, they’ll just do that.
You can talk about possibilities all you want, but the fact is that as they are done coal waste is a lot more dangerous. So it's weird to put so much emphasis on closing nuclear plants first.
Filter all the pollutants out, and use Compressed Carbon Storage for the CO2. We already are enforcing the first on all existing plants, and working on the second.
But long-term, renewables are the only solution.
Also, how do you store the pollutants, and why doesn't that technique work for nuclear waste? I'm guessing that storing the pollutants consists of putting it in good, strong containers, which works fine for nuclear waste too. It's not perfect, but it doesn't really make much of a difference whether it's mercury or uranium leaking.
For instance, wind power: http://i.imgur.com/xHyOoc9.jpg
This picture was taken just prior to these two engineers jumping to their deaths rather than being burnt alive. I assume the turbine spontaneously catching fire is not an intentional design feature, but rather the result of inadequate quality control during manufacturing?
Why do you think regulations around coal generation are any easier to enforce than regulations around nuclear generation?
Sounds like they need to encourage EV acquisition so that the extra supply of energy can go to EVs, while the pollution is reduced by taking diesel and petrol cars off the roads. They could also make use of batteries for storage so they can retire coal plants and better handle the variability of energy use.
> The auction system is designed to reduce the rate of new renewable-energy additions and keep Germany from producing too much power. It might seem like an easy way to solve the oversupply issue would be to shut down excess power plants, especially ones that burn coal. But not only are the coal plants used to even out periods when wind and solar aren’t available, they’re also lucrative and thus politically hard to shut down. Because German law requires renewable energy to be used first on the German grid, when Germany exports excess electricity to its European neighbors it primarily comes from coal plants. Last fall, the German subsidiary of the Swedish energy giant Vattenfall started up a 1,600-megwatt coal-fired plant that had been under construction for eight years, defying opposition from politicians, environmental organizations, and citizens who want to see coal plants eliminated.
Okay, that's just stupid. This is nothing but a short term problem that could be easily solved with batteries. Anything else seems to be a political problem, not a technical one.
Easily? The engineering challenges in doing this at utility scale are formidable.
One's (much) filthier than nuclear ( but without the 1950s sci fi horror movie aroma ), the other belongs to Vladimir Putin.
Enjoy. Now don't say fracking,, don't say fracking, don't say fracking....
There are just soo many factors why the 'Energiewende' failed. It's because of the politics made. Eventually we would've running green already but once in a while Angela Merkel just stops a already running process, but then Fukushima happened and she made the decision to go 'all in' into green. But! She didn't actually. Most 'bigger' companies didn't even pay a cent more for the green energy, only the consumers or the main pillar (our middle industry) needed to pay the 'Energiewende'. That was freaking akward since the bigger Companies would've probably paid the biggest pillar of the 'Energiewende'.
The next part is storing energy or producing energy by yourself. Even if you bought a big sun collector you NEED to pay taxes for your energy produced (not just for the collector), also for the energy you will produce and use for your own goods and storing the energy will costs you taxes as well.
While maybe a lot of people can live with that, there was another thing, which is that building energy plants is regulated by our government. If you maybe are a rich guy and want to do something good, you can't since the plants are going through a really painful and akward regulation like a planned economy. Innovation won't win here since the government won't ever shutdown the last coal power plants since there is so much lobby going on when it comes to energy that even if you have a good idea how to solve the last problems (i.e. by innovating into battery grids or some other stuff) you won't succeed. The german government has their own plan, even when they need to raise taxes for all the consumers, they don't even care what happens with the prices on the market since the german consumer market is totally regulated.
So, they own the sun now? Ridiculous.
> In fact, Germany is giving the rest of the world a lesson in just how much can go wrong when you try to reduce carbon emissions solely by installing lots of wind and solar.
Germany did much more than that. But: the purpose of the Energiewende was not to reduce carbon emissions first. The purpose was to get rid of the nuclear power plants asap. Phasing out coal is the next goal. Getting rid of nuclear had several advantages (for example one can stop early investing even more billions into a failed and costly technology. Nuclear is only provided by large monopolistic utilities, which had to get out of the way. The Energiewende is as much an experiment in getting a much more diverse landscape of energy producers and opening up the huge monopolies for competition from companies of all sizes). Getting rid of coal is also politically difficult, since coal production and usage has a long tradition in Germany and it employed a lot of people and local politicians block closing coal production where they can. But the coal phase out is already starting.
So already the description of the goal of the Energiewende is wrong.
> And in Germany, which is phasing out its nuclear plants, those other plants primarily burn dirty coal.
"Is phasing out." But hasn't yet. There are several nuclear power plants running.
> The country is now the world’s largest solar market. Germany’s carbon emissions in 2014 were 27 percent lower than 1990 levels.
Which is already basically half from US carbon emissions per capita.
> Because fossil-fuel power plants cannot easily ramp down generation in response to excess supply on the grid,
Actually fossil fuel plants can. But those who can are not profitable currently.
> on sunny, windy days there is sometimes so much power in the system that the price goes negativ
That's because there is not enough grid capacity to transport the electricity to South Germany. The grid is being expanded to do so, but this is taking time.
> Germany’s Parliament is expected to soon eliminate the government-set subsidy for renewable energy, known as a feed-in tariff, that has largely fueled the growth in wind and solar.
It is expected that local government in Germany will block this.
> But not only are the coal plants used to even out periods when wind and solar aren’t available, they’re also lucrative and thus politically hard to shut down.
Actually coal power plants in Germany are no longer lucrative and many many of them are losing money. Energy companies are threatening to close those. The mentioned Vattenfall coal power plant is a dinosaur planned long ago. It doesn't fit into the current energy landscape and is a very costly investment which looks like a huge failure.
Doesn't look like the author did its homework...