p.s. please remember the intent of this thread is analysis and not gossip.
Microsoft is interested in acquiring companies in markets they don't have wrapped up-- like the internet. Xobni makes outlook better? Great. Except that it's not about Outlook. It's about Gmail.
That would piss MS off, they might buy them just to kill the Gmail version.
If Microsoft has realized that they have cannibalized a large segment of developers (think plankton in an ecosystem analogy) then they might realize that it's better to have more diversity and encourage independent developers to create quality software such as Xobni.
Microsoft encourages third-party developers to write add-ins for Office. That doesn't mean they have any interest in acquiring (or copying) all of those add-ins.
[1] http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/marketplace/FX100621221033...
I don't agree with the people saying that they wouldn' because they own the market place. This is not true and xobni would be a nice fit with enterprize customers and MS could try and buy them to attract new customers or a value add for existing customers.
I think if they never buy them its because MS having angling Office as a platform for years and a company like this demostrates that it is possible to make money from that platform.
I spent a long old time developing on top of office making business apps and its not a bad platform if you take it for what it is.
Scenario a) Microsoft wants to acquire Xobni, but Xobni does not want to be acquired at its present valuation (whatever Microsoft was offering). However Microsoft also has strong leverage over Xobni as it controls what components work with Outlook. So this scenario of an aggressive Microsoft being rebuffed by a confident startup does not sound plausible.
Scenario b) Microsoft is timing its acquisition. If Xobni is independent, it could possibly integrate its service with other webmail providers. These providers (like Google or AOL) would be very reluctant to let a Microsoft owned Xobni have access to their users. In this case, by delaying the acquisition Microsoft could be hoping to gain leverage over the other email companies once their users are hooked on Xobni. Something along these lines seems much more plausible to me.
A third scenario comes to mind: Microsoft realizes that its history of acquisitions has not been too great, and it thinks Xobni is too important to risk screwing up this way. This seems unlikely just based on everything I've read and heard about the company and its culture.
They're well-funded, so the asking price must be high.
If Xobni was rolled into Outlook, then Microsoft could only charge for Outlook (possibly force an upgrade to a new version). If Xobni was an independent (though Microsoft controlled) entity, every enterprise Xobni user would willingly pay for Xobni and have to still pay for Outlook. Further depending on the utility of Xobni to users, they could charge more than Outlook itself! So maybe Microsoft sees the potential to double its enterprise email revenue and is being patient.
From Xobni's perspective: 1. What is the long term roadmap for Xobni? 2. Will merging with MSFT slow down innovation?
and the most important question
3. What is the right acquisition price for Xobni?
Xobni roughly raised 4.25 million Series A. At that time they probably had a decent prototype to demo at Khosla ventures -- which means that (pure speculation) 20-35% of the company is owned by the VC's. Ideally the VC's would like to make roughly 3-10X of their investment, which means 15 to 45 million.
From Adam and Matt's perspective, they have a winner on their hands, and they would want to maximize their ROI on selling Xobni and make sure they never have to work again:-). The longer they wait, the more users they get. And, clearly their pace of innovation is going to be faster than msft.
[From using Xobni for a few months, I can say that it's a kick ass product]
my 2 cents.
I'd guess MS is waiting to see what sort of traction Xobni gets, and if it's solid they'll consider acquiring and/or implementing some of that functionality into Outlook.
I'm just saying!
Outside of a small core community, Xobni news just isn't that relevant. Please save the Xobni posts for actual Xobni news.