Let's Occams Razor this:
Which is more likely?
- Applebaum is an abuser, as widely reported by multiple independent witnesses
- Various three-letter-agencies are orchestrating a conspiracy to defame him
Which is more likely?
- Applebaum is an abuser, as widely reported by multiple independent witnesses
- Various three-letter-agencies are orchestrating a conspiracy to defame him
I (as stated in my post) don't know whether he is an abuser or not. I was only commenting on how I don't think the orchestrated campaign mentioned is helpful to anyone (including the alleged victims).
I also didn't say that three letter agencies are orchestrating anything. I raised the possibility that outside actors might try and exacerbate the situation (on both sides). This is not tin-foil thinking but very possible given the existence of Snowden documents describing these kinds of tactics.[1]
As you said, a false dichotomy.
And who are those witnesses?
"Anonymous" witnesses don't count. If Appelbaum has done harm to you, whether you're a woman or man, come out and say it. You can't just say "we heard from anonymous sources that Obama raped someone" and expect to be taken seriously.
Also, you could use your logic to say:
"Who is right here? Thousands of government employees who say they haven't broken the law and haven't done mass surveillance, or this just one high-school dropout guy who fled to Russia?" (obviously talking about Snowden here).
I don't know if that's how Occam's Razor is supposed to work, but if that's how it works, then it's clearly a pretty flawed theory, that at best can be used as a "guideline" not as as hard rule.
That's all Occam's Razor is, really: A rule of thumb to help decide where to look next.