Cheers.
Furthermore, we are at full employment, with unemployment at 4.7%.
So we certainly could see the end of this business cycle soon. That alone is not a cause for concern, but I am worried about the general lack of ammunition available to central banks in the eventurbine they need to stimulate the economy.
That being said, it is a problem that the Fed can't cut interest rates any more, and Congress is vehemently opposed to any fiscal stimulus. I believe our only hope is "helicopter money," ie a UBI executed by the Fed. If the Fed gave out $2000 to everyone (or maybe just the bottom 20% of the income bracket), that could work. It would significantly help the most vulnerable and wouldn't just drive up prices on financial assets. I really think the Fed should start setting up the infrastructure for this now.
I don't disagree, my comment was purely empirical. According to the historically observed frequency of recessions in the USA, we have gone longer than is typical.
That said, the debt to GDP ratio of most developed countries is at some of the highest levels ever seen. That could be an issue but am not sure if it's big enough to cause a recession.