Bill Gates talks about why artificial intelligence is nearly here

recode.net

11 points·jonbaer··5 comments

"The first is, it will eliminate a lot of existing types of jobs. Gates said that creates a need for a lot of retraining but notes that until schools have class sizes under 10 and people can retire at a reasonable age and take ample vacation, he isn't worried about a lack of need for human labor."

Almost one hundred years ago Keynes predicted drastic cuts to the average worker's labor time, down to 15 hours or so a week. He expected living standards in developed countries would be between four and eight times higher and this would leave people far more leisure time.

Many countries have experienced massive productivity and standards of living increases in the last 100 years, and hours worked has not significantly declined. What makes anyone believe, 'this time is different'?

I think when leisure time becomes cheaper this prediction becomes true. Leisure still depends somewhat on others working while you don't

Yes, Keynes thought increased productivity would allow workers more free time--namely, to pursue leisurely activities.

Little did he realize workers would just channel that free time right back into their work.

People don't just happen to channel their free time back into their work. A full time job is still 40 hours a week. Depending on what you do, that might be exhausting, you may not have the energy to pursue leisure activities.

I doubt this is going to change any time soon. What incentive does a company have to reduce working hours? Declare that a full week of work is 32 hours instead of 40?

Happier, more productive employees?

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