The fact that [uncertain thing] became a huge, lasting hit doesn't really give us information about [different uncertain thing], except the knowledge that the probability of being a hit is non-zero.
I don't think that's totally accurate. If you consider the popularity of adjacent technologies (games, mobile devices, entertainment), it's logical to predict that a certain technology will also be noteworthy.
More like 3D TV - lots of parallels between the two in terms of hardware limitations (need to wear something on your head), cost, etc.
Or VRML in 1996.
Or Second Life in 2004.
1986. When they had to put over 1000 machines in /etc/hosts.