World's longest and deepest rail tunnel to open in Switzerland
bbc.com
bbc.com
Only in Switzerland, I guess. :)
I wish there were better write ups of how the planning for this came together and what differs from other somewhat similar huge projects.
It's even better. They are about one year ahead of schedule.
Once the new Berlin airport is finished in about 5-10 years, I'll fly down there to celebrate.
Rather if the new Berlin airport is ever finished...
In other words: If you want to celebrate, rather fly down to Berlin now and celebrate the opening of the Gotthard tunnel in Berlin.
Oh, and just to give an example, the construction of one of our nuclear power plants began in 1984 but was halted in 1986, only to begin where it left off in 2010, to be finished in 2015. Wait, now it is in 2016. Nope, just checked, it should be in 2018. All the while, the cost to maintain the stuff that was already bought or built is around 20 million a year, since 1986. So yeah, this one is on our TOP TEN list. This little swiss tunnel is not.
Obviously this is still a very well executed project overall.
"This rock is too solid to drill through with our machines!" – "Ok, for now let's just drill around it and make it an underground rollercoaster instead of a railway, we can get back to the original design later!"
However, here “ahead of schedule” is used as a, well, I guess compliment and for that it’s important to know the context. That they adjusted the schedule is obviously not at all a problem and, as I said, for a project this big the couple years it took longer aren’t really that relevant even.
The project wasn't with out Problems but because of such strict planning they could be solved. For example one of the TBM's got stuck for months, another issues such as sub contractors delivering fraudulent materials also had to be dealt with. [2]
Although the Swiss part went well there are issues with the connection in Germany and Italy. Some projects in Italy haven't even started yet and one part Switzerland is now paying for just to get the trains through.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotthard_Base_Tunnel [2] http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/wissen/natur/was-die-tunnelbauer...
Security of the workers was strictly controlled. Working temperature for example was not allowed to exceed 28°C, which was achieved through cooling installations.
http://cseligman.com/text/planets/magnetism.htm
The author estimates Mars' core temperature to be 5000-7000F, compared to an estimate of around 14000F for Earth. Obviously, the planets' respective compositions are different, so I'm not sure if one could just scale a temperature estimate linearly---but what the heck, this is the Internet and no one's grading me, right? ;)
So the core temperature ratio is 5/14, and the size ratio is 1/3, so:
(5/14) * (1/3) * 44F = ~5F
That comports with the current consensus regarding subsurface water, because scientists think that it's likely frozen or perhaps a brine (which would depress the solution's freezing point below that of pure water).Tunneling is probably a good idea anyway, because the surrounding rock will protect and insulate the habitat even if the subsurface temperatures aren't enough to warm it.
Edited: Oh for God's sake, I confused degrees Fahrenheit with degrees Celsius.
My more important question is how does catching fraudulent materials have anything to do with strict planning?
If your car engine breaks down you did a bad route planning?
One of the major problems detected was the fact that they had to drill through dolostone, which is a huge technological challenge. When mixed with water it results in a soupy mixture, which is almost impossible to work with in drilling a tunnel.
The did exploration drillings in 1993, but engineers where still pretty worried.
It was only in 2008 that the engineers lost the last of their concerns.
Such a huge project comes with technical uncertainties. What do you want to do about it?
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_City_Line
[2] in Swedish. http://framtidensinfrastruktur.se/artikel/snart-fardigbyggt-...
Norra länken 2.6 Bn SEK under budget (part of circle road around Stockholm). [1][2] Arlandabanan (train service to Stockholm AirPort), on time and on budget. [3]
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norra_länken
[2] https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norra_länken
[3] https://www.arlandaexpress.com/default.aspx?page=88&id=34
Underground?: Yes, Yes
Budget: $2bn, $12bn (or whatever)
On-time?: Yes, Yes
Is a tunnel?: No, Yes
...
One involves carving a 150km tunnel through a granite massif which is the Alps in a scale that never before was done in history of mankind, the other involves drilling a tunnel through alluvium and sedimentary deposits pretty much like any medium-scale tunneling work.
(Speaking as an Edinburgh bloke who lived through the significant disruption down Leith Walk for a tramline that was never built; I'm not bitter. Though nowadays I live abroad. In a city with multiple tram-lines.)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-36...
I'd be interested to see any breakdown of costs or schedule that show "planning" as being 50% of the the work.
What I think you mean is that the grandparent comment strikes you personally as not recognising the efforts of other engineers around the world, and you wish it did. I think that would be a less incendiary and aggressive way to get your point across, and, in most places, more likely to get a useful response.
Disrespect occurs with or without intent. The original poster's comment can only be construed in one way: the Swiss do things this way, it is better, and therefore everybody else does it wrong. The claim (50% spent on planning) is clearly and demonstrably wrong. As someone who works in the tunneling industry I take personal offense to the implication that we (Americans, British, Spanish, Italian, Chinese, everyone not Swiss) don't "invest the time up-front in planning and thinking" before we "set the machinery in motion" and that we have a work methodology that isn't "oriented towards reaping long term profits with interest".
And for that kind of thinking alone, I upvote this comment of yours. Kudos and respect to you.
As others I found you somewhat incendiary but I am still surprised by the massive downvoting you seem to have experienced :-/
Most people aren't judged by effort. They're judged by results.
Another way of putting it: the proof of the engineering is in the working.
Simply looking at an isolated example of a project that was on schedule and under budget (for varying definitions of schedule and budget, but that's how it goes in construction - the Seattle SR 99 replacement tunnel project along with the Seawall replacement is currently "on schedule" if you believe the management of those projects) does not provide the data to back up the poster's statement. Without the data we cannot adequately make the determination if the "Swiss system" described by the poster is better than any other system.
There is a saying in the poker community: don't be results oriented.
Understand what I mean when I say "like poker": the poker mindset is a very analytical, statistically oriented approach. The best players never make a bet/call/fold without some form of logical basis for their plays. They have an internal model that tells them "this play will succeed 50% of the time and I stand to win 3x my risked value and so it is profitable". Similarly in engineering, no decision should be made without an internal model where risk can be evaluated - "this structure will fail 5% of the time and kill somebody but it costs $10,000,000 to get more out of it and so it is not profitable".
Engineering - especially tunneling - is a gamble. You cannot design away every risk. All we can do is show up with our belts and suspenders on and hope our pants don't fall down when we're running out of the hole.
Everything else you described about risk is not unique to poker. In engineering, particularly major projects with real safety concerns, it's risk analysis. This component has a 4% chance of failing in this way, so add redundancy to mitigate it. Put in 10 sensors instead of 4, and require a consensus algorithm to reduce the risks from sensor failure or misreporting.
In engineering we do gamble, on a lot of things. But it's not a pure gamble, we aren't just throwing dice. We plan, prepare, rehearse, and execute.
And a bit of a nitpick, but we are just throwing dice. The entire idea of a safety factor is an abstraction to get away from statistics which is why it has been almost completely replaced in structural engineering with LRFD which is based on statistical analyses of component/system failures.
I'm a civil engineer, and I do structural design work for a living.
If you're not trolling and you do mean what you've been saying, you're being very disingenuous and in the process proving to be true and perfectly valid all comments regarding the virtues of the swiss system in contrast with the typical engineering work around the world, the one you so vocally identify yourself with.
Engineering is not poker. It never was. Only bad engineering is like poker, and it shows in their work. You're confusing basic aspects of reliability analysis (the "this structure will fail 5% of the time" comment) with being poker. European structural design standards dictate that the lower failure probability of an engineering work, for its entire design working life, is around 0,05%. This is not poker.
As you've mentioned, the design process is centered on risk analysis and balances the economic impact of safeguarding against risk scenarios, but this is entirely immaterial for the discussion. The discussion is about planning, and the lack thereof. All projects are planned to an extent, but the point is that planning is often insufficient in the sense that important variables are left unknown until breaking ground for any number of reasons, one of which is this mentality that its unacceptable to spend much on risk assessment ("why spend money on non-destructive tests to infer the geotechnical profile and properties of each stratum in the preliminary design stage if we're boring a hole in there and eventually we'll reach that point ourselves?").
Unknowingly or not, you've supported this observation throughout all this discussion by arguing in favor of the virtues of handling a civil engineer project like "poker", and tolerating and accepting the occurrence of surprises associated with unacceptably high risk probabilities that go way up to 5%. This is precisely the problem everyone is pointing out and you've tried to deny but ended up supporting. This is the sole responsible for the typical cost overruns in civil engineering projects, and you inadvertently demonstrated why sadly this still rings true up to this day.
Correct.
> Most people aren't judged by effort. They're judged by results.
Again, correct. And they deliver results, consistently.
The only place where they don't is team sports, but again that has a logical reason behind it, which is that they are very private and individual people, everyone for themselves (not that they don't try, it just doesn't work out). But when it comes to planning, they could very well teach others how it's done, because they excel at it. There is something to learn from every nation, planning and organization is one thing that one can learn from the Swiss.
That is correct, in my experience the Swiss way is the best way, and I have yet to work in another country (and I'm international) where they do it better or with more planning and forethought. The only other mentality which comes close to that is that of Japanese. This is obviously anecdotal, but to me it is perfectly understandable why the Swiss managed to do it within time and budget constraints. Everywhere else I've worked, and what I've seen, it was not as good.
I've put the Swiss saying that planning is 50% of the work to the test, and have had great results with it. Again this is anecdotal, but to me, it confirms that their way of thinking is correct, and I appreciate it.
By the way, the article in German mentions multiple times that certain challenges which were met were expected because they were identified during the planning and preparation stage.
But never any plan, never any specification, never anything except maybe a lonely Powerpoint presentation promising castles in the sky. Process? No process, that takes too long. And if there anything resembling a process, it's never formally documented, never enforced, and as soon as the next crisis breaks out, purposely disregarded. "Capability maturity model? Yeah, no, we obviously have no time for that..."
It's been both frustrating and fascinating watching it all these years: always panic, always guerilla style work mode, always no plan whatsoever, always pandemonium, always chaos. Completely the opposite of the Swiss or the Japanese. Different companies, different people, but with the English always the same modus operandi. And then they say that stereotypes are bad and not true at all. I guess at least I appreciate that they are consistent in being chaotic and disorganized (;-))
Political legitimacy, signed off by popular referendum.
When you look north to our German neighbors, with a comparable work ethos and certainly a fair understanding of engineering you see projects go south again and again. Be it Stuttgart 21 (the new train station), or that horrible mess that is the airport Berlin Brandenburg.
Such projects usually require popular support via referendum in Switzerland. That means that if it is voted through this implies that the necessary capital investments are spoken for and that the project is legitimized via public support.
This also means that if the government changes they can't just massage budget positions and siphon funds of such projects for political expedience, or other reasons.
Legitimacy also avoids public resistance against the projects as it happened in Stuttgart and which almost killed the project (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuttgart_21#Debate_and_opposi...).
That's not to say that all big projects in Switzerland work like a charm. But political legimacy and honest budgeting that comes with it seem major factors that such projects are succesful more often than not.
> Political legitimacy, signed off by popular referendum.
Yes, that helps them, a lot. However, that is effect. The root cause of political legitimacy is deeply ingrained in their culture, and it is compromise and consensus seeking, even when divided on an issue. That was a very humbling and instructive experience.
"Switzerland's voting system is unique among modern democratic nations in that Switzerland practices direct democracy in parallel with representative democracy. That's why the Swiss system is called semi-direct democracy.[1] Direct democracy allows any citizen to challenge any law approved by the parliament or, at any time, propose a modification of the federal Constitution.
...
Approximately four times a year, voting occurs over various issues; these include both initiatives and referendums, where policies are directly voted on by people, and elections, where the populace votes for officials. "
On a cantonal level there is (among others) a "finance referendum". This may be mandatory or optional depending on the canton. Optional means the project is only actually put to a referendum if an eligible group demands it. An eligible group may be a political party, a certain number of voters, certain interest groups, etc.
For example in the Canton of Zürich there is an optional referendum on decisions of the Cantonal Council on new non-recurrent expenditure of more than 6 million francs or new recurrent annual expenditures of more than 600'000 francs. To actually put such a decision to a referendum requires either 3000 voters (public referendum), 12 municipalities, the city of Zürich or the city of Winterthur (municipal referendum), or 45 Cantonal Council members (cantonal referendum).
On a federal level there is no "finance referendum". It has been proposed, but most political parties are against it since it could hinder the Federal Council in its freedom of action and delay or even block important investments. But there's a mandatory referendum for all constitutional changes and certain other things like joining supranational communities etc. and a optional referendum for all federal laws and certain other things like international treaties etc. The optional referendum requires 50'000 voters (or eight cantons, but this only actually happened once).
So here's the thing to understand about Swiss government: It never changes. Well at least its executive branch doesn't. Bear with me for a moment.
Swiss government (federal, cantonal and communal) differs from the American model in three ways:
* Power is not concentrated in a single person, but a council (e.g. 7 members on federal level). Decisions (as far as they can go before involving parliament) are made by secret votes inside the council and carried through as a single entity. Council members are supposed to never publicly talk about their individual opinions, only what the council represents as a whole. They're not supposed to be politicians anymore, they're acting much more like a board of directors.
* There's no such thing as a government / opposition split in Switzerland. In theory it could happen, but it never plays out this way. Instead, the four largest parties present their council candidates to the national assembly, who then vote for them one after the other. If a candidate doesn't please them the opposing parties form coalitions to vote in a counter candidate from the same party. That's the most spectacle we get. So even a socialist will vote for conservative council members - because the conservative party will do the same in return. It's a political truce that works like this since 67 years [1].
* Council members, while not immune to being 'deelected', in practise tend to stay in office for as long as they want. While there is an election cycle it doesn't really matter the way it plays out.
All of this together creates tremendous stability in the Swiss political system. The main instability comes from people's initiatives, which I tend to see as a good thing, since that at least reflects the viewpoint of the majority.
Really, sometimes I wonder how they came up with such a well oiled system in 1848. Maybe it helped being able to learn from the first gen. modern Republics and their mistakes (USA and France).
The German Wikipedia says Swiss engineers were at fault (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hochrheinbrücke#Konstruktionsf...)
You can take the Porta Alpina dise-project as an example (which wanted an underground station midway through the tunnel connecting to ski resorts).
Despite strong political lobbying, the project was deemed uneconomical and canceled.
If you compare it with the new span of the SF Bay Bridge, the difference is clear: there was far less political involvement in the technical details of the project in the Swiss case.
Without public money even...
So for a project of this scale and timeline, they managed to use up exactly all the budget... (I assume it would say under/over budget if it was a significant amount off).
What are the odds of predicting correctly the cost of a 20 year project especially given the volatility of markets over the last 20 years?
I suspect either some corners were cut, or some contractors started padding out the bills towards the end...
http://maps.vasile.ch/transit-sbb/?hms=08:40:00&day=2016-06-...
Edit: we will be looking at journey times of about 170 minutes from Zurich to Milan AFTER the tunnel opens.
The article says "... the journey time for travellers between Zurich and Milan will be reduced by an hour to two hours and 40 minutes."
I cross-checked that with http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/switzerland-s-gotthard-tra... ("reducing the journey times between Zurich, Switzerland, and Milan, Italy, from just over four hours to two-and-a-half hours") and http://content.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,2026369... ("the journey time of three hours and 40 minutes from Zurich to Milan on the Cisalpino tilting train will be cut by an hour".)
You can see these all give a time of over 150 minutes using the tunnel, not 111 minutes. They all agree it's a savings of about an hour.
http://www.24heures.ch/suisse/Le-tunnel-de-base-du-Gothard-r...
BTW Make sure to open the video in Chrome or Opera, the 360 thing does not work in Firefox
(Saying this as someone from a region that would have had an immense benefit of the Porta Alpina station)
Porta Alpina ("Alpine Gate") was a proposed railway station to be located in the middle of the Gotthard Base Tunnel in southern Switzerland. Intended to promote tourism and the economy in the region of Graubünden, the project was put on hold as uneconomical in 2007, and then indefinitely shelved by the Swiss authorities in 2012.
Porta Alpina would have been the deepest underground train station in the world at 800 metres underground, outclassing by far Arsenalna Metro station at 105.5 metres.
The station was proposed to be located near a crossover between the northbound and southbound tunnels and to be linked to the surface by the world's highest elevator, using shafts built near the village of Sedrun for the construction of the tunnel. Construction costs were estimated at 40-50 million Swiss francs, with annual operating costs of 2.5 million francs. It was initially projected to be opened in 2016 after the Base Tunnel was scheduled to come into service.
Is this solely because of the pressure or is there something else (say water?)?
Also, I think they forgot degrees (°).
1. Ok most :)
"The flow of heat from Earth's interior to the surface is estimated at 47 terawatts (TW) and comes from two main sources in roughly equal amounts: the radiogenic heat produced by the radioactive decay of isotopes in the mantle and crust, and the primordial heat left over from the formation of the Earth."
Most of the heat flow from the thicker continental crust is attributed to internal radiogenic sources, in contrast the thinner oceanic crust has only 2% internal radiogenic heat.
In the Swiss alps most of the heat is coming from local radioactive decay.
http://seattletransitblog.com/2016/03/24/st3-draft-plan-over...
Mining through solid rock is not really that expensive these days. But when building metropolitan transit, arranging traffic around of an existing population is not easy, and building transit stations is an expensive business.
Making a tunnel through solid, hard rock is in any case cheaper than making a tunnel through non-solid earth which needs to be supported for every inch all the time.
Regarding cost of mining solid rock: in fact, where I live, I think in the construction of underground train line, the actual cost of mining is pretty much offset by the price for sale of rock matter, which is then used for claiming land from sea to construct new housing. It is fairly silly over here because we have a low population and lots of land, but when the city claims new land, it can build there and sell it without purchasing it from existing owners, and all the increase in land value from zero (in fact no land at all) goes to the pockets of the city, and the pockets that the city chooses.
(Being a bit unfair here, because the tunnelling cost is probably less than half the cost - the other half being rebuilding half a dozen massive underground train stations while keeping them operational.)
So that 26 miles counts the tracks both ways. Well, it's not a short way, 42 km is a marathon.
If there would have been only solid rock the swiss would have build this tunnel centuries ago. There was a lot of slippery rock in between.
Any chance that you are living near https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drammen_Spiral ?
I would have dismissed your claim as totally absurd had I not read about this gem of an improbable building project before!
Forty percent of the nations mass transit use occurs in NYC. Its even gone down everywhere but there. The cost per mile to install is staggering, but worse is that many systems are deferring maintenance and even worker pensions. Also while fees to ride are subsidized most don't understand that all maintenance has to be subsidized too. Throw in the silliness that is streetcars whose existence seems to only be to subsidize those who make them and we are just throwing money away
If you want to know how many ride the government can tell you. Go to http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml, do an advanced search for B08519
The percentages aren't good
Although on-time or early and within budget, it is still a dangerous job to do. That is 0.346% of the total workforce (2600).
Also, while those nine deaths are tragic, we've come a long way from the roughly 200 lives the old 15km tunnel took.
And a German article about the nine people who died: http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz/standard/die-toten-arbei...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-30/swiss-made...
And important as well: likely more friendly to the environment. It's not all about economics.
EDIT: Answering my own question...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_transport_megaprojects
and
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9f/SHM_evol...