Reliably? Short version is no, and it is even more complicated. Two individuals eating the same food will gain weight differently, depending on a large number of factors.
Keywords if you want to look it up more: TDEE, 1 pound = 3500 calories, calorie in calorie out
Your metabolism level, and the percentage of calories that are actually taken up by fat cells, depend on many factors besides total calorie count.
A nice paper that came out recently: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/11/151119143445.h...
So, for example, person A can eat 3000 calories of cookies per day, but would gain weight on 3000 calories of rice. Person B could be the opposite. From the paper, it looks like genetics is a factor, though epigenetic factors and microbiome seem more important.
That's not at all what that paper says. It describes that blood glucose response to various foods can differ between people (and shows to extreme outliers as examples). Your interpretation with "3000 calories of cookies" vs rice is both not supported by the study, and also nonsense.
I'd look up the studies for this if I had the time, but: the actual correlation (relationship) between calories and weight gain/loss is extremely large, with the differences between most people of similar body types less than 200 calories/day.
Yes, it is well supported by the research, did you actually read it?
I actually had a nice phone call with the lab that produced this paper. You can explain a percentage of weight changes by calorie intake, but the factors that explain glucose curves (and thus uptake of calories) require far more data (like genetics, etc).
I read your link. It's about blood glucose. Not about weight. The crux of your argument is that blood glucose response equals uptake of calories, which is not supported by your link, and which is not true. If it were, you could eat 5000 calories of fat in a day, have no blood glucose response, thus not get fat.
Are you really trying to claim that the outlier participants of whom the blood glucose plots are shown in your link are unable to use any of the calories in bananas/cookies, because they had no blood glucose response?
Regardless, we can talk about metabolic pathways. If you consume carbohydrates, they eventually get dumped into your bloodstream as glucose (minus fructose, which is special). The level of glucose then absorbed into fat cells is regulated by insulin, and insulin production (while more complicated) is determined by the level of glucose in the blood.
I don't see what fat cells have anything to do with this either.
As for your rebuttal of my points, it does not seem sequent. I made the point that two individuals eating the same food will gain weight differently. You then made the very same point by linking to another paper which by the way does not support what either of us said - as it measured individuals individual glycemic responses to different foods, which is not correlated with the body's calorie intake on the food.
Here's the full paper in case you did not read it (and for others to read if they'd like): http://www.sciencedirect.com.sci-hub.cc/science/article/pii/...
As for the paper, the graphics used represent outliers. Plus they in one example compared cookies and bananas. Both which have different metabolic pathways. Fructose is handled in the liver and glucose is not. When they compared bread and glucose the difference was not quite as drastic even when comparing outliers. Therefore it seems more like it has to do with varying ability in people's bodies efficiency to metabolise fructose and glucose.