He's 17, hasn't finished high school, and you want to know if he can build the next Facebook? Why isn't it enough to just let him grow and be whatever is he was meant to be.
Why does it matter if he was lucky, if he has hacker skills, can be a "social theorist"? You write as if you believe he's this millenia's greatest young thinker.
Or will he be a has-been by 2011? What does that even mean? Are you buying into media hype that badly?