The death of the web design agency
medium.com
medium.com
The articles pulls examples of top agencies and then goes on to talk about services such as Shopify eating into the low-end. As if the top agencies sustained themselves on low-end work.
The article also makes the case that talent is difficult to come by and expensive.
TLDR: Running a business is hard, especially one which has lots of competition and employs a lot of expensive talent in a fast moving industry. You need to adapt. At times adaptation goes well. At other times not so well. But there is no shortage of work for talented developers.
Open up some archives and follow any big company. One year it's a star, the next year it's in trouble.
Also I've spent several months of development time over the course of my life designing and implementing dashboards in angular 1.x and just the other month I googled "angular dashboard templates" out of boredom and frankly I could've saved weeks implementing $10 solutions that ultimately were better then what I came up with on my own (superior responsiveness, better styling, whatever).
Oh and finally all the start-up design jobs are tied to start-up funding. If the funding goes south companies in the Bay Area will be much less willing to drop $5, 10, 20k on design work.
Consider that it is so easy and fun to create a facebook page for your firm. So convenient to maintain it. On the other hand every time a change is required the firm will have to go through the agency route to update its website. Also if you look at the supply side there wont be as many agencies to take up the work for mass markets considering also the delivery and cost parameters.
On the other end of the spectrum, small business owners (<$1M revenue) who used to hire agencies now simply hire in-house. Web design isn't a niche occupation anymore, so its possible to just put out a listing and hire someone who will give personal service to you.
I know of some web design agencies in the area that are currently in hiring mode, but they're all new brands and they're servicing external markets. The rest are long existing, and not really growing very fast--either in terms of client base or staff.
If you consider updating your website quite often you would want that expertise in house and maybe turn your web site into a web application. At that point, I feel that design cannot be decoupled from engineering. Engineers need to understand principles of UX so that they can design good user experiences and designers need to know the constraints of what is possible with the current state of the art and the amount of resources available.
Maybe design and engineering is merging into single role and is causing the effects described in the article.
Engineers need to do a lot of things these days, they are expected to be DBA, ops, network administrators,server administrators on Linux and Windows, graphic designers, UX specialists, HTML integrators, data analysts, security specialists, do sells jobs,customer support and what not. They are required to know 10 languages with all the frameworks and libraries, with 5 years of experience in each language...
Of course, each of these domains used to be a full time job itself, but now, engineers are asked to wear all these hats at the same time.
That's how businesses end up with people who know Angular but barely know Javascript, who know Bootstrap but don't understand CSS box model, who know Mysql, Postgres, Mongodb without basic understanding of data modelling, who know framework X,Y,Z but would be incapable of writing an application secured with a basic authentication system from scratch, who know Docker and AWS but wouldn't be capable of setting up a basic local linux server. but that's not the fault of these engineers, that's what businesses ask, jacks of all trades without any craftsmanship.
The first time I had to set up a highly available service I had to do everything from the ground up - replicated block devices for generated configuration, a master-master MySQL setup, a floating IP address, and monitoring to know when to fail over. If I had to, I probably still could.
Now I just click a few buttons in the AWS console and I've got an S3 bucket, a replicated database server in two different data centres, a load balancer which can do health checks, and a small cluster of EC2 instances running my application. I could do it in a few hours, leaving me the rest of the week to work on the application itself.
The same is true for other parts of the stack, I've got application frameworks dealing with all the boilerplate I used to write, front-end frameworks helping me build responsive UIs, and CSS frameworks to make it all look nice. I could do all of those things from scratch if there was some reason to do so, but why would I want to waste my time reinventing the wheel?
The end result of all this is that yes, I now do a job in which I do many things, some of which have previously been the entirety of jobs I've had, and I find it fantastic fun.
Although if you would like to hire someone who knows JavaScript, understands the CSS box model and data modeling, has written several application frameworks from scratch, and can build a local Linux server from a blank hard disk and a distro image, my email address is in my profile ;)
We get so much queries from the small business owners why their site doesn't bring any new customers. It's all because of "templating". They end up pretty much with an "online business" card. The whole thing is a screw up from the ground up. It takes us months to get their website anywhere where it can be seen...most of the time it would be better to just do it from scratch. And at the end cheaper.
If you're serious about your business you will hire a team that can do the design, copy and SEO so that you can actually bring new clients at your door.
Y'know, an organised approach the beating the competition
Similarly the web has become more complex and involved and expectations have increased, small scale web design doesn't work any more IMO.
Next up is going to be mobile app design.
Additionally every other person in Silicon Valley is in a coding school or graduating from one.
Salaries are going to drop.
Programmers are the new lawyers.
It's more like white collars in general are the new blue collars.
Why would you, and how would you do it better, once robots can cheaply and perfectly do almost all the current blue collar jobs?
So many businesses (and other walks of life, like governments, public organisations, etc) can benefit from software that currently don't, making programmer-time more affordable will increase the amount of software they can get custom made for their needs and automate a lot of drudgery/improve efficiency.
Personally I want to do high-quality work for people who know what it's worth...
So its good that a lot of help is available at sites like stackexchange. We completed the stuff ourselves.
I suppose you paid the salaries for the person(s) doing that work in-house. Assuming your programmer's salary cost (~1.3x their gross salary) is $5000 per month and the median month having 20 work days, that price is about the equivalent of 1 day of work for your in-house programmer.
So that price needs to pay for 1 work day for the outsourced freelance programmer+overhead/profit margin for the company itself...Sounds reasonable to me.
Below a certain threshold it doesn't make sense to put in the time/effort to get a new client.
It is quite literally not worth my time to get out of bed for less than 500$ unless the client is a frequently recurring client.
So even a cashier in the supermarket or a street cleaner earns about that or more.
EDIT: I guess the situation is different in India (just saw you're based there from your comment history), although I remember reading that even there developer salaries are slowly closing the gap with their western counterparts.
Take a few per year. They'll enjoy the experience. And when mentioning niche areas, take them in skill-sets the team don't have, and have them teach the team. Example, for an engineering team: Graphic design, marketing, languages, etc..
It's not like these big name agencies employee hundreds of people. It's not like GE folding. So I don't think it's fair to judge the state of the industry mostly on the status of those companies.
"Web designers" were an anomaly and stuck in the past. "Web design" of 1998-2010ish was mostly designers used to paper trying to translate it to the web (think complex use of huge tables to constrain presentation). Photoshop was the chief mockup tool tells you how out of touch they were.
The fact is that magazines had converged on a number of useful core ideas like black text on white pages, page numbers (mostly), text width constrained, breaking into multiple columns if necessary, etc. People who deviated too far from this ended up with "art" rather than a magazine. A lot of designers thought the web would allow them to go bonkers, yet at the same time had a command-and-control mindset that was straight out of paper-land (they'd tell you what size to make your browser in order to read their web page, for crime's sake).
So we ended up with some more conventions and are starting to have online (not just web) design that fits the medium -- e.g. finally we have reactive designs that aren't rigid table layouts that model paper so at least work to some degree on different sized devices.
Good riddance to those old fashioned losers. Anybody can now do an OK job using templates, and there is still room for experimentation. Hell, theres more experimentation, and a lot of it involves UI research, something anathema to magazine and poster designers!
A downturn? The article reaches a conclusion then supports it own conclusion with anecdotal evidence.
Maybe the amount of money spent in the design agency industry has increased but it's being spent at bigger firms.