Hacker News Reader

Comment by secfirstmd | Hacker News Reader

This is yet another fascinating step in the disenagement of the US from Saudi Arabia (pity it took so long to happen). Drip by drip stories are emerging which are preparing for it. The Saudi 9/11 pages in the report. Diplomatic spats etc.

It's fascinating to watch such a deal with the devil break down. The long term natural ally for US in the Middle East is Iran. It seems the Washington establishment knows this.

View on HN

Just because we made a deal with Iran doesn't mean they are our ally, and I'd hardly call them our "natural" ally; their regime is only marginally less bad on human rights than Saudi Arabia. Iran still funds terror groups, much like Saudi Arabia. They are just part of two different tribes and despise one another. Really the U.S. mission should be to do whatever it takes to prevent Saudi Arabia and Iran from going to war. They are already in a proxy war in several locations, Iraq and Syria being the two largest.

I think that's what people in Washington know, has nothing to do with being their ally and everything to do with stopping an implosion. If Iran got a nuke, it's not likely they would give it to a terror group (from what I see) it's just incredibly likely that it will push Saudi Arabia to get one too and then we'll have quite the situation on our hands.

Before the Iranian revolution, Iran under the Shah was the USA's staunchest regional ally. And before that, the British and Russians spent centuries wrestling over influence inside Iran. There are sound geopolitical reasons to court Iranian friendship, and undoubtedly the days of Anglo-Persian cooperation will someday return. Though perhaps after regime change.

I don't see the regime in London changing anytime soon.

> regime change

Irans's theocratic head of state (currently Khomeini) is elected, when the previous dictator dies, by a "Council of Experts" [1]. This Council recently swung liberal. Khomeini is 87 years old.

[1] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LVrtd7Ltk-4 Vox video on Iranian elections

> Iran still funds terror groups, much like Saudi Arabia.

The US itself also founds terror groups. The more interesting question is, when was the last time an Iran backed terror group blow up anything in the US or Europe?

The US doesn't fund terror groups so that they will commit acts of terror; it's usually much more complex of a relationship. I don't deny your claim, because it's true, but it has entirely different aims.

Iran is nominally government by the people for the people, including guaranteed Jewish representation in parliament(!) and elections that don't appear to be completely rigged. This makes them a considerably more natural ally in the Middle East than almost any of the other states.

The Jewish population in Iran is down nearly 95% in just the past two decades. And they the Ayatollah makes the real rules, the democratic side is largely for show.

I mean, this is a headline from just today out of Iran: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/17/world/middleeast/irans-har...

Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia it's illegal for women to drive.

Iran's not perfect but they're a good deal better than Saudi Arabia.

The religious arm in Iran is desperately trying to hold onto power. And sadly they do so with brutality. But talk to any modern Iranian with access to the Internet and they want regime change. The students tried recently and were brutally beat back. But it will change. It's inevitable. The religious side is going to try and be more and more extreme to exert their power until finally they fail. It's going to be a bit brutal, but ultimately it's going to be good news for the Middle East.

I've been hearing it's inevitable for all my life (my family left when I was 1 in 79). Who really knows and can say for sure? What's it going to take for minorities to enjoy freedom there, let alone any kind of regime failure as you alluded to.

True, I can't say for sure. I'm just very hopeful.

The question is, why does the U.S. need an ally in the Middle East? As oil becomes less and less strategically significant, and the Middle East region dries up [1], it will become less and less important. Do we desperately need an ally in Central Africa?

[1] http://www.climatecentral.org/news/middle-east-future-heat-h...

Reply on news.ycombinator.com