For the third scenario, "it appears" can be useful, or if more justification is required, "it appears from the (server's behavior|available data|documentation I can find)." Then when you have to correct yourself later, it wasn't you who was misleading, but the situation. I find that this can be used in a completely honest way and often gives non-techy people a more accurate impression of the situation. It helps them understand both the tentative nature of your diagnosis and the obstacles you're struggling with. Win-win.
In that scenario "I think" is not to do with opinion but uncertainty (it can be used for both).
The definition of Linux is an established fact so if you know what it is there is no need for "I think".
So, you agree Linux is just a kernel and the whole operating system should be called GNU/Linux, right?