That strikes me as bad math.
(and I guess then it comes down to "is he planning to attack me")
On this we agree. If there is clearly going to be an attack, then figuring out an optimal fight strategy is wise. But if there is an option not to have an attack, that seems even better.... even if you're confident that you have a 100.00% accurate ability to differentiate between superior/lucky and inferior/unlucky opponents.