Hacker News Reader

Comment by encoderer | Hacker News Reader

Even if it's 50%... that's the risk.. what's the reward? Saving whatever cash you have on you?

He could've taken those odds and handed over the money. And then, if the assailant attacked, he could've sparred with him as he did.

This is a silly point to argue, though, because i'd be surprised if the story wasn't tweaked--even just a little--to the authors purposes.

View on HN

What if the odd's of disarming the guy are 95%?

P( fight | takes wallet ) = 50%.

P( no injury | fight ) = 95%.

P( injury | hand over wallet ) = P(injury | fight) P(fight | hand over wallet) = 0.05 x 0.5 = 0.025

So P(no injury | hand over wallet) = 97.5%.

good point :) However it makes a slight assumption that you still have 95% chance of winning if you hand over the wallet and are then attacked.

This is probably not the case as the attacker gains a reasonable advantage by being first (maybe only 2 or 3% in this case)

I also assumed the 50% was referring to the percentage chance of being actually harmed rather than having to fight. In which case your stats do break down.

> what's the reward?

Living life as something other than a coward.

while I dont know what I would do in this situation, I know I wouldnt ever call someone who handed money over to someone who threatened them with a knife a "coward"

I agree with you. I'm not calling anyone a coward, but I would certainly feel like one after being robbed. It's a very intrusive, violating event.

So handing your money over to an aggravated knife wielding robber, shouting at you in Portugese, makes you a coward.

Bravo.

The machismo from behind the keyboard is priceless.

There's more here than the calculus of survival. Consider your right to life and liberty. To surrender that is to become a victim. Some would honestly rather risk it than enter into that class. Its a personal choice. Americans used to be famous for their backbone. This thread leaves me wondering.

I was robbed at knifepoint many years ago. I gave up my wallet willingly.

I did so because I cared far more about being present for my wife and children than I cared about the fact that some assholes would enjoy the contents of my wallet.

At the time I was practicing both boxing and karate on a daily basis, so I probably had decent odds in a fight... but why bother? I can get another wallet and some more cash. I can't get my daughter a new dad.

If this makes you think I have no backbone... well I suppose we simply have different principles.

Crime problems are mostly social/economic. Regular people shouldn't have to fight robbers. Thats what police are for.

Responding to being robbed isn't an exercise in patriotism.

Actually, police have no duty to protect individuals. The Supreme Court and lower courts have ruled this repeatedly.

You mean movies have lied to me? :(

Police are for cleaning up crime scenes after the fact and trying to catch the people responsible. There's almost nothing they can do before a crime is committed. Even if a crime is in progress, they're more interested in protecting their own skin than in protecting yours. (Ever notice that a dead cop is a tragedy and a dead civilian is just another day at work?) I've known people who were attacked around the corner from a police van and the police did nothing, if they even bothered to notice at all.

I don't know how well this works, but this is how I was told to deal with robbery.

If you have anything substantial to lose, carry two wallets, one in an unconventional place. Put about $100 (with a few ones, so it seems like a real wallet) and some expired or fake credit cards in one as a dummy wallet.

Most robbers just want to get some quick cash, usually for drugs. So they get what they want and slink away, and you only lose $100. If you're traveling in dangerous parts of the world, the police are usually corrupt and you expect such random losses in the form of shakedowns/bribes.

In my family it's common to carry a wallet, and then a hanging pouch with your valuables (serious money and stuff you don't need everyday, though I don't keep my passport there) when traveling.

So even if you're robbed, you have something left (not as good as your advice, but it sounds like it works).

Reply on news.ycombinator.com