When measured by engagement, they all devolved to distracting ads and media. Facebook now looks like Alta Vista and Lycos used to look like before Google wiped them off the map. Google has one thing right - they continue to solve the core need that created them, regardless of monetisation. The next would be either:
1. The site/s that solve the human need behind Facebook cleanly.
2. Or the government partitioning/open-graphing Facebook for rigging and silencing republican news in an election year.
Well Facebook own Instagram, WhatsApp, Oculus and MSQRD (snapchat-like filters) so I think they have a pretty solid hold on the market.
If they can erode some of Snapchats market share with their upcoming Snapchat-like app then they will be doing well.
What is the unifying feature of this series?
They all started as non-algorithmic light-weight technology platforms which were more focused on duplicating the last popular social platform. (BBS'es -> Compuserve -> AOL) This is different from companies like Google for example, that started out as algorithmic-first.
A privacy-focused social network that people actually want to use. Peer-to-peer networks for individuals, groups and communities. With a monetization scheme that doesn't suck.
Disclaimer: I'm working on this.
Facebook could definitely go the way of myspace & AOL Instant Messenger! It doesn't have a "wide moat", or "margin of safety" like Google, that's for sure.
As Facebook is included, the question must mean "who's next to succeed" in the space.
Facebook doesn't belong in that list
Why not? It has more users than any of the others ever did.