Comment by onion2k | Hacker News Reader

Comment by onion2k | Hacker News Reader

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Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish".

Google and Facebook both have the problem that their business model is predicated on having thousands of small advertisers bidding on ads. That's what they leverage to generate profit. In any market that's dominated by a single entity that smaller companies won't compete with for ad space, both Google and Facebook lose the ability to make money.

When the majority of people who want to buy nail varnish bypass search entirely and go straight to Amazon, Google and Facebook have a huge problem. The same is true if developers go straight to Stack Overflow, people looking for rooms go straight to AirBNB, people moving around cities go straight to Uber, etc, then Google and Facebook will have no one to sell ad space to any more.

I'm not about to suggest Google and Facebook are doomed; they both have talent enough to think of ways to meet these challenges. I would however suggest that they are not too big to fail.

Of all the things that might happen, users going directly to websites rather than through google/facebook is by far the least likely.

Whats more likely to happen is that someone will come along with better search with less advertising (just like Google did), or someone might build a better social network with less advertising (just like facebook did). There's as much precidence for these things reoccurring as there is for users increasingly searching rather than using the url bar.

Rather than using the URL bar, I think it's more likely that people will just open their Uber app, flight booking app, shopping app, etc. I don't think that is an unlikely development.

Facebook is trying to head that off by having app integrations in Messenger. The whole new bot craze too. Wonder if Google will jump on this train via Hangouts.

There have been rumors that Google is planning a new, entirely separate messaging service, with bot integrations etc.

http://venturebeat.com/2015/12/22/google-is-reportedly-devel...

I've been down on Hangouts due to it's bugginess but pretty much have to use it due to Project Fi. I they came out with something as rock solid as WhatsApp but with bots I would be on board again.

Same here. I'm forced to use hangouts, due to having Project FI. But google hangouts drops calls, and also does annoying little things like compressing images sent via SMS.

Brace yourselves, Google is launching something social again...

This is why I have mad respect for Zuckerberg. He's willing to place gigantic bets (Instagram/WhatsApp) when and where it matters.

There are a ton of thing I hate about Zucks but have to respect his foresight by making very timely and smart purchases to expand his brand.

Android is a great asset to Google in this case.

I agree. Here's what Steve Jobs had to say about this, in the context of mobile search: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JC8LR9cryG0

If we assume that different search queries are better served by different engines then I wonder if it's not possible for someone to develop a "thin" search engine that would do semantic analysis of the query and then redirect it to one or more sites, or show results side by side...

I believe you're referring to metasearch engines, like Dogpile.

If they already have the apps installed they're "converted" customer who don't really need advertising anymore. But how to get them know the app and install it in the first place? Ads impression is a common way beside recommendation from friends.

Additionally, most advertising are about pushing people to buy product like snacks, beer or cloths. I doubt many people really install a Zara or Gap app or put the website in their bookmark.

Most of the time, people seem more likely to Google for "amazon nail polish" than actually visit the site. Of course, company-name keywords usually mean that the ad and the first hit are both Amazon.

I disagree completely. People trust sites like Amazon and prefer them if they have already registered an account or are Amazon Prime members. When you want to buy a new CD, do you just google for the band name or do you head to amazon.com (or your preferred music site)?

I observe people doing this all the time. Especially people who are less technical than you or I.

Convenience trumps accuracy and people want a list of offers they perceive to be competitive, not a list of search results. Millions of people look on Amazon first, or Cheapoair, or Hotels.com, the list goes on.

>> Whats more likely to happen is that someone will come along with better search with less advertising

and no one will ever find out about it, cause GOOG owns the OS on billions of devices.

> I would however suggest that they are not too big to fail.

Nothing is. Ultimately, everything fails.

>When the majority of people who want to buy nail varnish bypass search entirely and go straight to Amazon

Do you even do this? My guess is the majority will never do what you're setting out to believe. Strictly speaking of Amazon, they don't even have the best prices these days.

I use DuckDuckGo hash bangs - !auk nail polish

If a purchaser is really price conscious then they'll turn to price comparison websites, everyone else will go directly to their favourite store, where 'favourite' is driven by services like Amazon Prime that add value rather than being anything to do with brand loyalty[1]. Either way, Google is not part of the equation.

[1] I have a Prime account because having it for Amazon Video and Amazon Music is far cheaper than paying for Netflix and Spotify. The fact I now go to Amazon by default to buy things because I get free, quick delivery is a bonus for me, and a big win for them if I'm paying more than other places for things I guess.

I constantly do this, so does my wife. Even if we don't end up buying from Amazon, we'll read lots of reviews and often figure out what to buy from there. And for me, if I don't buy from Amazon, I usually end up going straight to eBay after that.

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