I assume Wright is sane and clever. His "magic" (as in "smoke and mirrors") presentations, a sample of which we saw online on his blog clearly demonstrate his talent and the invested time to research, plan and organize the events. The only thing he underestimated is the speed with which the old and existing signature was recognized to be part of his public "proof." Without that if would stay long at "he said, she said" which would perfectly suit him. He planned that kind of development and he knows very well how he'd use his status of "claimed but not-fully-confirmed Satoshi."
An example:
"About six months ago, before he was publicly outed in the technology press, he approached Andrew O’Hagan, a Scottish novelist who wrote an “unauthorised autobiography” of Julian Assange, the founder of the whistle-blower site WikiLeaks. Since then the author, whose most recent novel, “The Illuminations”, was longlisted for the 2015 Man Booker Prize, has had complete access to Mr Wright and his family, as well as to his research and business colleagues. Mr O’Hagan is writing a long article for the London Review of Books(2) on Mr Wright and “his journey towards revealing his work.” (Mr O’Hagan, too, has come to be convinced that Mr Wright is Mr Nakamoto.)" (1)
1) http://www.economist.com/news/briefings/21698061-craig-steve...
2) http://www.lrb.co.uk/2016/05/01/andrew-ohagan/the-search-for... "Online exclusive · 1 May 2016: The full, long-form account will be published here later this month." "In a world exclusive for the London Review of Books, Andrew O’Hagan spent many months with Craig Wright, the man responsible for what Bill Gates has called ‘the technical tour de force of this generation’."
I can't wait reading O’Hagan's story. He should publish it even if he understands that he'll thus show how credulous he was.