See the ADC for a pretty nice selection of examples which do actually rival Flash websites, often without even using JavaScript.
Right. Except that they don't always.
I'm not saying that Flash should be what we use for creating innovative content. Standards are slow. Video tag? We're just starting to see this implemented? After how many years has video been a demand on the web?
Flash will always do what the browser can't handle native. New demands for VOIP, Web Conferencing, h/w accelerated 3D will keep Flash alive as well an IDE (with mind crushing bugs, mind you) that brings everything together.
And if it doesn't live as a file format, that would be alright, too. There is a different experience with creating content within the Flash IDE. If Flash eventually outputted in native standards, that would be a great thing.