Indeed, I think many tech people forget they are in the vast minority of computer users.
For example: how many people use Microsoft Excel at least once a week? 100 million people? 250 million? It's certainly a large chunk of the computing public. These are sophisticated users of desktop software, and I can't imagine they'll be putting down their Windows PCs in favor of iPads.
Lately, HN-types have been suggesting that there are two classes of users: the sophisticated software engineer, and the unsophisticated masses. This is both insulting and wrong.
I can see home user switching to ipad like devices simply because if their covenience.
For example, over 50 million Nintendo Wiis are installed in homes around the world, but nobody is clamoring for "Wiimote" apps at work.
The iPad surely has the potential to change the way casual home users interact with their computers... but I believe pg's comparison to microcomputers in the enterprise is a misplaced analogy.
Paul, if you're reading this, I urge you to spend a few days observing the 'knowledge workers' at a bank, claims processor, hospital, or real estate developer. Watch how they have memorized all the shortcuts and quirks of their custom line-of-business apps. You'll discover a class of users who want power and control, not simplicity and ease-of-use.
Doesn't "quirks" already imply that it's non-optimal? Shouldn't we think of applications and user interfaces which don't make someone remembering all shortcuts a "professional"? As stated by others before, simplicity and ease of use aren't strongly correlated to power and control.
That said I think you are right about other professions, e.g. anyone who works in IB for a large firm isn't allowed a mouse because it is much more effective to become efficient with the shortcuts.
http://events.apple.com.edgesuite.net/1001q3f8hhr/event/inde... [starts at 1:05:40]
Only if you consider the fact that both are computers and theoretically capable of running any arbitrary code.
Also factor in the new way of using a computer (via touchscreen). Will that work out? Consider the fact that Apple has a tight control on apps and development. How will the amount of innovation fostered by each system compare?
When you consider those things, you'll realize the argument is not on whether or not the iPad is capable of replacing the software but on whether or not the iPad's design and platform can be a viable alternative to the way we use computers. Because, theoretically any computer is capable of replicating software capabilities.
Consider the Mac vs PC battle. The Mac is capable of doing pretty much everything your PC does, but why does it have less market penetration? Consider the various factors to that.
Yes there is. Apple seems pretty intent on keeping their policy of forbidding interpreters, plug-ins, virtual machines and the like. To really be as sophisticated as Excel, a program must include a scripting language and extension mechanism. That's not to say that a spreadsheet without those features isn't just as useful to most users, but it certainly isn't as sophisticated.
Apple may, of course ignore the rules it requires third-party developers to live under when building its own software.
They won't be putting Windows PC's down in favor of iPads, they'll be picking up iPads in addition to using using Windows PC's.
I agree with pg's suggestion that something organic is going to evolve from the new form factor. I also think it's really hard to imagine exactly what that will be until you are using it and developing for it.
Fact is, we have to design for smart non-technical people AND dumb non-technical people.
Pretty much everyone uses a computer at some point nowadays, and most people are not intelligent educated professionals, ergo most computer users are not intelligent educated professionals. I would suspect fewer than 1% of Facebook users even know about that incident.
Also many people specialize in certain softwares, Excel being a great case in point. I know some accountants who can do things in Excel that baffle me, but still have to call me to set up their Wi-Fi network password for them. They are educated professionals who spend most of their working hours in front of a PC, yet are still not at all sophisticated computer users.