SpaceX plans to debut Red Dragon with 2018 Mars mission
nasaspaceflight.com
nasaspaceflight.com
I used to watch the live-blogs and then livestreams of Steve Jobs when he delivered his keynotes. It felt like seeing and hearing the future. Every new announcement was thrilling and exciting.
These days it's SpaceX's launches that gives me a similar feeling. A feeling of seeing and being part of something truly important.
If another company communicated in the exact same way it wouldn't be the same, because the story and the sense of importance just isn't there. I could imagine something similar being done in AI, robotics, prolongation of life, clean energy. But to be as great as SpaceX is, I think the mission needs to be something that resonates with us as being profoundly important.
Maybe someone wants to call me out and say that Apples products under Steve Jobs were not that important. But I'd say they were. iPhone, iPad - they changed our world. It's just now we've gotten used to it. I hope we'll one day get as used to people living on Mars! :)
It's hard for me to see it as important though, except as marketing for science education. Is that what you're thinking of?
I guess I'm asking because sometimes people seem to act like SpaceX is of humanitarian importance and I just can't see that. Not compared to like 10 other immediate existential threats to humanity anyway.
Ah but once Earth is no longer the single point of failure then the Sun becomes the single point of failure :)
I'm very excited about all things space and I hope SpaceX pulls it off
Saying that the thread is about SpaceX and Mars and all I can say is "GO SPACEX!"
Hell, Zuckerburg, Yuri Milner, and Steven Hawking are already planning it:
http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/04/yuri-miln...
Maybe. What if it's an artificial plague? What if any other number of catastrophic events cause the collapse of the civilization here?
Having multiple settlements elsewhere is insurance.
And, while Mars is one interesting place, there are other rocks we could easily settle and mine for resources. I don't think Mars should be the first we tackle (I'd go for the Moon first) but I'm perfectly fine with humans spreading all over the solar system.
Unless you are talking about bottom as in 10 metres down. That won't protect you in case something goes seriously wrong.
Speaking for myself I believe there is something incredibly unique in the way humans devote incredible amounts of energy to aspects of life that aren't inherently necessary to survival but nonetheless add to the richness of our lives. Art and music are examples of things that while not required for life, certainly make life more interesting.
The human drive to explore the places beyond the horizon and to expand our knowledge are things I would certainly describe as of profound importance, even if they don't have immediate direct benefits, although often times they do.
In the end I think JFK put it best in his 1962 speech at Rice:
We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win…
I guess the danger is if we see Falcon 2020 that is the same as Falcon 2019 with new voiceovers...
This seems to be a trend with Musk-run companies. Do they really attract people that are that dedicated to the mission? Or do they get a lot of people padding their resume, then jumping ship to somewhere that compensates more fairly with work/life balance?
It's probably like any other successful company of its size... a few really hardcore people pull a lot of weight, in terms of both getting things done and defining the company's reputation, while some others just hang on for the ride.
Good management consists largely of identifying those few supercontributors and making very certain that they remain very happy.
http://www.geekwire.com/2016/payscale-ratings-rank-spacex-te...
Yes. Working for and with people who want to change the world is, in many ways, its own reward. It's definitely possible to get burned out, and you do work hard, but there has never been a week that went by where I thought to myself, "I'm not doing anything worthwhile here", or even, "I'm not contributing positively".
I used to work for a financial services company. I made 150% of what I make at SpaceX for at least as many hours a week. The difference was, at the end of those weeks, I would look back and realize that if I did my job right, I was doing nothing other than making rich people richer.
I'm working in Antarctica right now and my story echoes yours almost exactly. Worked for a large finserv company in a very comfortable position (telecommuting allowed, great benefits, etc) and took a 30% pay cut to come down here. But here I feel my work matters, supporting research that matters, where at the other job it was just a paycheck at the end of the day.
In my experience, it wasn’t so much the long hours that wore thin on employees but instead it was the unreliable scheduling that prevented many people from making plans to enjoy their limited time off. There has been progress made in this regard as we have grown and gotten a better handle on some of our critical processes.
I should add that much like with anything else it’s difficult to please everyone all the time and not all of these changes have been well received by everyone. Overtime work for hourly employees is much more regulated and carefully watched now than it was a few years ago and I fall into a camp that isn’t exactly pleased with this. While I think the new changes are better for the overall well being of most employees there are many of us who specifically prefer an environment that skews more heavily towards work in terms of work/life balance.
Pay also tends to be lower than the industry average, especially considering living expenses in LA/Socal, but from what I’ve seen while introductory pay is low it tends to ramp up rather quickly once you hit the 3-4 year mark and is much more aligned with competitors at that point. This probably is at least partially related to the relatively high turnover here which means promotions and advancement can come quickly if you can stick it out.
I should make clear that my experience is coming from the perspective of an hourly technician that is compensated for overtime, unlike the salaried engineers, although in talking with many during the course of my day they seem to have a similar experience.
I have some good friends that work for $unamed_spacex_competitor and their claim is essentially that spacex is considered a "bad" job in the industry. They talk about it like it's a sweatshop.
Honestly, I think it's just jealousy. If you meet somebody and tell them you work for spacex, they think you're a rockstar. If you meet somebody and tell them you work for Boeing, they say "oh, I didn't know Boeing made rockets, you should go work for spacex!".
It does sound like SpaceX is long hours and hard work...but a lot of people really enjoy that sort of thing.
The work is long, hard and rewarding. But it's clearly not for everyone. And they're pretty up front about that.
Sadly, whenever these discussions about employees leaving SpaceX come up, some commenters invariably come to the false conclusion that anyone who leaves SpaceX is a loser or somehow couldn’t hack it here. This is obviously not true.
Priorities change and work being the number one or singular focus during one period of life doesn’t make it so perpetually. People get older/more mature and some decide they want to start a family, travel more, want to own a home (not an easy task even as a well paid engineer here in LA), or any number of other good reasons that may lead to leaving SpaceX. None of these reasons should reflect poorly on those who leave.
With that being said, I find it incredibly annoying when new employees come in, some with very impressive backgrounds, and within a few weeks start complaining about the work environment despite it being made abundantly clear to them at every point in the hiring process. I was first hired for a job consisting of extremely low skill manual labor and even for someone in my position it was made very clear what was expected of me from the very first phone screening.
SpaceX is an excellent example of how culture comes from the top.
I used to have a boss who complained that his employees turned up late or not at all for meetings. He would often turn up late or not at all for meetings.
I had another boss who used email excessively. His team used email excessively.
Elon Musk is mission-driven, work-oriented and puts in very long hours. Thus SpaceX is mission-driven, work-oriented, and people put in long hours.
It's all a matter of choice, I admire Musk and SpaceX whilst also appreciating many people want to spend more time with their family.
Just an observation to think on next time your employees don't exhibit the culture you'd like - the answer can often be found in a mirror.
I would also add that in general I think many people tend to think the grass is always greener on the other side. I’ve known both engineers and technicians who have moved on to “greener” pastures at more established aerospace/defense companies only to later tell me that they weren’t all that green afterall. I have a good friend who joined a large aero/defense conglomerate out of state to be closer to family and while the the pay pump was a nice feature at first, its luster wore off after a few weeks when he ran into some bureaucratic issues that he probably wouldn’t have had to worry about here. I also work closely with a fairly senior engineer who has a decade plus experience at JPL and Rocketdyne and flatly states that working here has rekindled his passion largely due to the relatively flat structure. He was absolutely worn out by all the middle managers he had to deal with previously. I think, and this is especially true at the more senior engineering levels, not necessarily for us lowly techs, having the ability to walk over to Elon or Tom Mueller and voice your concerns directly is pretty empowering for most and makes working here very unique in an industry that tends to put massive layers between engineers and management.
I’ll add a counter point so that I don’t come off sounding like a complete SpaceX shill and say that I also know people who have left and are very happy with their decision and their new workplaces, although many, in my experience most, still look back at their time here fondly.
I would also note that the space launch business inherently requires long hours due to its complexity and unpredictability. If you work in space launch, and are responsible for any flight critical operations, you will work the occasional 60, 70, or even 80 hour week, there is simply no way around it and it even happens at places like ULA and Rocketdyne.
This isn’t to excuse SpaceX’s sometimes poor planning and management which end up requiring more of these long weeks than should arguably be necessary, but sometimes it’s just a fact of life in this industry. Hopefully as the company matures hours and schedules continue to stabilize, it’s always frustrating to lose good people because they have to make the choice between spending time with family or work.
We are talking about a company which intends to send people on Mars. Really ?
:-)
Normally I would be critical of that type of workplace, which is how I feel about Amazon when the stories of that workplace are aired. But I give spacex a pass because they are aiming for something no one has done before. Busting some amazon coders balls to raise the profits of the company is a piss poor reason for stressing people out, going to the red planet however.
The fantasy is that work should be engaging, fulfilling, fun, and yet only moderately challenging, doesn't take too many hours, has you surrounded by ideal colleagues, with policies that fit you perfectly... you get the idea.
Reality doesn't work like that and it's so silly that people keep pretending otherwise.
And it IS possible for a freelancer to charge way more and get way better clients than an average salaryman, but that requires being able to deliver superior results. That's a responsibility that few people seem to be willing to take.
The central thing about either side of the fence is– nobody owes us anything, and it's up to us as individuals to negotiate for the conditions that we want.
I wish. Most other companies can't do that simply because they have no grand goal worth talking about. It's understandable. I don't want my local bakery to talk about feeding the world, because I know their sole purpose is to provide for people working there in exchange for bread customers need. Most companies are like that, and it's OK.
Personally, I value honesty. I despise of companies that try to pretend they're doing something grand, or working towards some idea, when in fact they're just in it for the cash. Not trying to fix the world is totally fine. Pretending to do it for a marketing boost is not.
Letting a spider out of the house is a profoundly important goal. People just need to embrace their immediate work it is of the utmost importance.
And as I said, it's fine. But the most important way in which SpaceX is different than most is that for Elon and his company, Mars and space are terminal goals, while profit is only means to get there. It's exactly the opposite to how most companies operate.
Still, I have to point out and ask, what the hell is the financial incentive for SpaceX to go to Mars? This is still a private business, with investors! What money will be made from this?
Another early revenue stream will be science done and paid for by governments, universities, etc. There will eventually be a Martian economy, and SpaceX will be well-suited to earning money from the colonies [2]. There will be lots of ways to make lots of money if you have a thriving Mars colony with millions of people moving there and a constant supply of materials going both directions.
[1]: So that's people that will be able to afford to go in 20 years and who also want to move to Mars.
[2]: How much value has America created since it was a colony? Sure, Britain didn't actually earn that money itself since there was a war over it - but establishing colonies in "new worlds" does seem like it could be a very profitable venture.
Knowing you'll be confined to a closed space for years (assuming no return capabilities on the initial mission), even the awesome research you'd be doing will probably start to look very bleak.
Just send robots and control them from Earth...
> Just send robots and control them from Earth...
This idea makes me feel isolated and sad. What a dystopian future that would be, with everybody sitting on a single planet at risk of disease, nuclear war, asteroid impacts, global-scale climate change, all without a care, while you look into your VR headset and see the realistic landscapes of other planets. So sad :(
I'll take Mars any day over that. And I'm also confident that return trips will be frequent if anyone wants to leave - that's the whole point of reusable rockets, afterall.
>What a dystopian future that would be, with everybody sitting on a single planet at risk of disease, nuclear war, asteroid impacts, global-scale climate change, all without a care, while you look into your VR headset and see the realistic landscapes of other planets.
Have you done any reading on the habitability of Mars? I will guarantee that once you truly comprehend what life on Mars will entail, you will be BEGGING for the luxuries of disease, nuclear war, climate change, and all the other great things that life on Earth bring.
Mars is a brutal, senseless struggle against a guaranteed DEATH.
I recommend going to live in Antartica first, and see how long you can last there. Followed by building a capsule on top of Everest. Then by living in the ISS. Then by living on the Moon. ONLY THEN, would you have any idea of what Mars living will be like.
But alas, even then it will be far, FAR more challenging than living on the Moon. The transit time between the Earth and the Moon is childish compared to Earth and Mars. Once you're on Mars, there will be no coming back for a LONG time.
I'll take my VR tour of Mars any day, thank you.
You would get resupply missions once every 2 years [0] instead of 10 times a year, but in general they share most of the downsides but Mars has soil, gravity and an atmosphere.
When things go south on Mars, you die.
Supporting the survival of six people on the ISS also costs billions of dollars a year. Even if you cut launch costs by a factor of 10, it's still going to be north of a billion dollars. Supporting the survival of a viable colony on Mars would bankrupt the world twice over.
Once you've got enough people and supplies, you can build farms, which means less food needs to be shipped out, freeing capacity for other goods. Presumably a lot of the infrastructure will be shipped out long before people are, so all they need to do is collect things from the supply drops, then assemble and expand.
Get the Mars colony to self sufficiency and the cost to Earth will trend to zero.
Fixed that for you.
Inside the core of the Earth seems as bad or worse.
For some that desolation is part of the appeal. For others the challenges. For others the opportunity to be pioneers.
Finding volunteers for colonisation won't be a problem.
Just thinking about some small things, such as going swimming, or riding a bicycle on a path through the woods. Or hiking / camping, or driving a sports car along a twisty mountain road.
Which sounds fine until you remember you'll have a ping in the realm of 4-24 minutes. And you thought you had trouble matchmaking in some games now...
Honestly the VR scenario here isn't so bad and you get exercise from it too :)
What young rich kid wouldn't want to play video games and colonize a new planet?!
Besides, Musk can offer free trips back trivially. [see WaitButWhy's extraordinarily long post about SpaceX]
I don't know the details of what he suggested, but, when we talk about 'families' I think most parents would hesitate to subject their children to the rigors and risks of an early-stage Mars colony, even thought they might be keen themselves. Retirees, the childless, and people without plans to have kids soon would be a safer bet for early colonists
The comparison to America is terrible, if you ask me. If the american continent was looking anything like Mars, people would have never settled there and the value you're talking about would be very close to zero.
If seems dishonest to me to compare mars with the American continent, especially considering that if we want to compare mars with the discovery of a whole continent, there is one that looks much more like mars : Antarctica. There is no record whatsoever of any long-term human occupation there. That has to prove that humans tend to dislike living in cold deserts.
By comparison, the american continent has been inhabited for thousands of years, and its discovery by Europeans has brought many extremely appreciated plants and animals.
What is there to bring from mars that there is not on Earth already? Apart from vast areas of rusted rocks and dust, not much, except perhaps for the possibility of fulfilling the fantasy of people who have read or watched too much science-fiction.
I mean, a settlement on mars can have value, but it will only be the value that you'll bring there. For instance if you build an hotel or casino there (as I personally believe tourism is one of the very few business models that make sense for mars), then the fact that it is on mars will not bring much more value than the intrinsic value of your hotel or casino itself.
This is actually true for most countries. America's economic strength lies in the fact that it creates software, micro-chips, manufactured goods, entertainment, etc.
Tell me, where in the ground do you dig up a micro-processor? Or a hollywood blockbuster? Or a Tesla Model S? Or the source code for google's search engine?
Economic value is primarily created by human activity. Once there is human activity on Mars there is the potential for economic value there. And once human activity on Mars is relatively self-sustaining, which we can achieve through building up the local industry combined with certain technological innovations, then that human activity will indeed provide things of net positive value to the rest of human civilization.
It seems so hard now, but in fifty or a hundred years we'll look back and it'll just seem normal and possibly even natural.
We tend to discount the truly incredible and jaw dropping amount of labor and ingenuity that has gone into building the prosaic world we see out the window every day. Even something like providing water to New York City is itself a herculean effort beyond the capability of even the entire human race only a few centuries ago. What we've done to network the world together digitally, to build engines of mass trade of manufactured goods across and between continents, to travel across land/sea/air from point to point with minimal overhead beyond the raw requirements imposed by the laws of physics, all of these things are awe inspiring creations when you give yourself the opportunity to look at them in whole. And many of them are vastly more difficult and in some cases more questionably of long term value than colonizing Mars.
[1] http://shitelonsays.com/transcript/elon-musk-at-mits-aeroast...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OneWeb_satellite_constellation
[3] http://www.techinsider.io/elon-musks-spacex-is-backpedaling-...
There's nothing to start the process off on Mars. Mars is intractably expensive to get to in a way that America was not. It is expensive to live on in a way that America was not. It has no basic draw that can bring thousands of people there despite the cost.
People want to live on Mars, for lots of reasons. Mostly Mars colonization is about getting the activation energy lower than the latent resources available for doing it (which are substantial, make no mistake).
But absent any return on investment, the available resources today are orders of magnitude too small to make a go of it.
In any foreseeable world, any kind of substantial off-Earth human presence (more than say 200 people) is going to require a substantial practical value to justify it. Pure science or "just because it's there" or fulfilling the childhood sci-fi dreams of various people are not going to cut it. Which bums me out too! I have childhood sci-fi dreams.
If there's a path to large-scale (or even medium-scale) human presence off Earth, it's something like solar power generation or asteroid mining.
You are talking about current american economy that happened literally centuries later.
> Economic value is primarily created by human activity.
Precisely. If economic value depends on human activity and not on the location it takes place, then why spend hundreds of billions to do it somewhere else? What exactly can you do on mars that you coud not do on Earth for much less money?
What will you do if you're on Mars and the company that supplies you food, spare parts, and medical supplies goes out of business?
The Americas worked as colonies because they could become self sufficient in a very short period of time and had enormous quantities of valuable resources. The trees alone were priceless to the parent countries where every tree was spoken for. Even then some of the colonies failed.
What does Mars have that you couldn't obtain more cheaply on Earth?
Except, of course, that Mt Everest would be childs play compared to Mars.
Government contracts are often quite profitable, not to mention the technology and reputation gains SpaceX would realize from such a mission. I would expect investors to be thrilled with this announcement.
With first stage reusability well on its way, and SpaceX being the only launch provider to have it, their margins for every launch are going to become huge.
You don't have to be a public company to be beholden to shareholders.
The goal of the business is to increase profitability and cashflow, to allow SpaceX to build its Mars colony.
In more traditional terms that could equate to:
The goal of the business is to increase return for shareholders. The shareholder happens to want to use those profits to build a Mars colony.
The effect is that it can motivates staff, who want some greater purpose that just their own wealth.
Long term there will probably be a significant monetary RoI from various projects and technological advancements along the way, as well as being able to sell people (and governments) tickets to space and to Mars. But the company is set up so that even if that doesn't work out getting to Mars will still happen.
The Moon on the other hand: it's orders of magnitude closer, and there's actual profit potential for tourism and possibly other things (producing fuel to deliver to low Earth orbit, for example).
Is Musk on record anywhere about 'ownership', 'rights', 'obligations' of those exploring, colonizing and profiting from Mars?
A law or treaty is only as good as its enforcement mechanism.
"International law identifies Antarctica and outer space as two of four global commons (the others being the high seas and the atmosphere). Both have been defined within international regimes as spaces outside the territory of nation states and beyond the normative inhabitable zones of the human species. In both instances the current governance regime were outcomes of the International Geophysical Year (IGY) (1957-1958)."
http://phys.org/news/2015-08-antarctica-key-space.html
Specifically in the Antartica treaty:
"No acts or activities taking place while the present Treaty is in force shall constitute a basis for asserting, supporting or denying a claim to territorial sovereignty in Antarctica or create any rights of sovereignty in Antarctica. No new claim, or enlargement of an existing claim to territorial sovereignty in Antarctica shall be asserted while the present Treaty is in force."
Unfortunately, the environmental protection protocol is open for review in 2048. This will probably roll back the protections in place for the environment of Antartica :(
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protocol_on_Environmental_Prot...
They didn't cancel it yet because for now there is currently no activity there with a profit, and they are not sure how to divide it. But once there is a way to gain money, don't expect that the treaty will last too much.
It would be a classic Mexican standoff, but the group with access to orbital and inter-planetary platforms would win. You could try to starve them out, but you couldn't keep them from obliterating you while it was happening.
At which point you have become the worlds most wanted terrorist, and will have to watch your back for the rest of your life while large portions of the worlds security apparatus tries to find ways of taking you out (not just the US - everyone else will worry they are next).
Only you're not on this world... Interplanetary games of brinkmanship have new rules.
Seems to me that the first entity to get a real foothold in space will be the de facto ruler of Earth.
Anyway, I meant economic dependence; if you have investors that are on Earth, they will expect you to do what it takes to get them their returns. That means complying with governments. So in that scenario, dependence is simply needing that investment.
Anyway you can rig the asteroid with explosives in the center of it, and just blow it to make a still dangerous giant meteor rain.
The rather hard sci-fi book series by Jack Campbell/(non alias name is: John G. Hemry) by the name lost fleet is full of scenarious where planet dwellers are rather fucked against space forces.
Spoiler: Giant block of metal is all you need to do planetary bombardments from space, just send it off and Newton will do the rest. Good luck stopping the many many tons of a single metal object "dropped" from space.
Automatically track every object in the solar system large enough to make a boom-boom on Earth? Yes, please! I'll take 3.
What makes me SUPER uneasy about what SpaceX is trying to do with Mars is the 100% private nature of this, at least from an ownership perspective. Is SpaceX trying to claim ownership to Mars, or a least a part of it? Who or what gives them the right to make this claim? Wouldn't humanity as a whole be better served to see Mars the same way we see Antartica?
Additionally, why does SpaceX get to say who goes to Mars and who doesn't? Shouldn't we choose who gets to go on missions to Mars based on expertise in technical and scientific fields vs how much one can pay for a ticket? Why should the ability to go to Mars be based capital? Does a little child who wants to be an astronaut also need to be a billionaire? Ultimately, what gives the super rich the right to leave this planet for a colony on Mars while the rest of us try to figure out how to survive on the planet that they had a large hand in destroying in the first place. Why should we, as a society, even support a colony on Mars that will take many years to be self sustaining in the above configuration.
Hopefully our international bodies wake up and start taking the privatization of space seriously and at least start enacting and enforcing some guidelines, regulations, and treaties around space and bodies in our solar system.
This post sounds to me like sour grapes. "I can't go, so I don't want anybody to go unless we all can." I hope I'm wrong, because that idea terrifies me a bit.
Its not sour grapes. When Neil Armstrong went to the moon it was for all Americans and all of Humanity. During the space shuttle missions there was a public effort to try to select a broad representation of cultures, backgrounds, educations, nationalities etc to be astronauts.
However, if the only ultra rich get to go, which it sounds like the case since that would be the only way to fund a private mission, why should everyone left be ok with it? Why should the richest people in the world, most who have had a incredibly large role in environmentally destroying the ONLY planet all of humanity can live on, just leave everyone else to clean up the mess? It would be the ultimate FU to the rest of the 99.9% of humanity.
http://www.theverge.com/2015/11/24/9792854/neil-degrasse-tys...
You are missing the point. Capital funded the moon missions as well - just in that case it was the capital of the community you belong to, let's say your nation, so you feel involved. Nowadays NASA can't even put a human being into orbit any more - and that's not the fault of SpaceX.
As a "public Common", everybody should be allowed to go there. That's not the same as to claim ownership, which indeed should be publicly and very well regulated.
Oy vey... that might be a sentiment which befits an established enterprise, but it is no way to reach for the stars.
Do you think Magellan or Columbus tried to be inclusive when they were looking to crew their expeditions? Of course not, they selected on whatever capabilities or vices they deemed necessary for their purpose. Did the Vikings go for a multicultural crew when they tried to reach Vinland? Nope. What about Genghis Khan, did he choose his troops by looking at the colour of their skin or their cultural heritage? He probably did, the criteria being 'just as long as they look and talk like me'.
Trying to be culturally sensitive and inclusive might work when trips to Mars are organised by the UN, based on technology and experience from pioneers like the current crop of 'commercial space access providers'. This is not where we are just now, however. Right now the selection criteria are altogether more practical: can you afford it, cope with the stress, have the right capabilities, can you function as a crew in a cramped environment for an extended period, can you handle the possibility of being left 'stranded' on a planet hostile to (our) life?
> can you afford it
Now, if all was fine and dandy on Earth and some rich people want to take the risk of starting a Mars colony with the idea that most of us will be able to travel back and forth in a hundred years go for it.
The problem is, there is an asteroid on a collision course with Earth. Oh, and the asteroid was created with help from some of the people trying to now escape. The asteroid is global warming. I can go into great detail on how global warming is going to make things incredibly challenging for the 9+ billion of us around on Earth in 2050. At least to Elon's credit he's doing some things that might make living in a warmer world a little more sustainable before he jets off to Mars. Most people that will be able to pay the price won't be doing so.
Wouldn't be more ethical to focus on saving the one planet most of us and our kids will live on? Lets say the Mars colony is successful. So successful that you and your families chances of surviving are actually better on Mars vs Earth. What gives you and your offspring the right for that greater chance of survival? Because you are rich? What about executive XYZ who lead company ABC for 20 years and used our air and water as a dumping ground for pollution. What gives them the right to leave? What gives them and their offspring the right to survive and thrive on another planet while us on earth deal with the cost of that pollution. As I said, it would be the ultimate FU to 99.9% of us.
I think a spaceship designed for and by those who have the means and will to design such will work just as well for those who lack either, or both [1].
[1] After all, the Golgafringians managed to put their entire middle-management layer, not to mention their telephone cleaners and hairdressers, on one...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_spaceflight#American_d...
Since so far everything is done for NASA I don't have a problem with it. NASA, like any giant government agency subcontracts out a lot of work to various parties. The whole "Military-industrial complex" thing. In the case of LEO where it's NASA controlled but privately contracted SpaceX is awesome because they are bringing down the cost of launches to LEO. This saves us, the US taxpayer $$$.
The frikin Mars mission is different because from what I understand SpaceX is going with or without NASA. That's the difference between an Apollo mission, where the Saturn V was developed by Boeing and others, and Boeing just going alone.
Personally, I think this legislation is a bad idea and is a direct attack on a global common. It will be interesting to see how this holds up internationally. Its almost like the US saying to the world we open up waters in the middle of the Atlantic (international waters) for resource extraction by any of our corporations. Try and stop us.
The US doesn't have to do anything for that to happen, since that's the current status quo. Fisheries in international waters are in crisis due to overfishing in part because they are global commons and access cannot be restricted.
http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/ia/permits/highseas.html
http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-2/fisheries/deep-sea-fish...
Status quo seems to be not good enough on the enforcement end, which leads to illegal overfishing.
In the real world, the only thing that matters is who has the bigger stick to backup whatever terms they dictate.
No NATO treaties or US treaties would have any weight without the backing of the largest military force on the planet. So in regard to space, it's all meaningless, because there's nothing of value on Mars or the Moon that is economically worth sending a military to enforce a treaty over.
Common sense isn't so common sometimes...
Economic worth is not what wars are fought over. They are fought over the prospect of losing face. It all boils down to dick-waving, even over the vast expanses of space.
I mean, who would object to a limited tactical strike with no boots on the ground on a radical (possibly insane) terrorist controlled (I hear they abuse children) space-pirate-fortress?
For anything a martian colony could realistically move in a shorter timescale, even if it hit Manhattan, it might kill a few thousand people.
A much smaller boulder dropped into the Martian gravity well would kill the entire colony.
The Martian independence play is to just put a bunch of fragmentation grenades into LEO, rather than mess around with nukes. Nobody who expects to keep living on Earth would ever do something so foolish, but if you wanted to cut ties with your homeworld in a hurry, without killing anyone directly, that would certainly do it.
Anyhow, it's premature to even be worrying about ownership rights until some person actually lands there, and even then, there's ample historical precedent to guide us. If you're seriously interested in this topic, spend some time with exploration-age history, because space is likely to look a lot like that, only without the ethical issues associated with ignoring the natives, which at least our local space doesn't seem to have.
(And even if it does turn out Mars has some bacteria, well... Earth-bound conservationists are unlikely to hold back the progress for very long once it becomes a real possibility. It's really easy right now to posture about how we can't afford to colonize Mars if we would so much as tousle even one microorganism's precious little cilia, because the choice isn't real yet. When it is, someone's going to go.)
I guess a response would include Musk's well-known fears of AI, though I don't recall him stating he is afraid of out-of-control private interests with respect to interplanetary exploration and colonization.
Reminded me of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O5h4enjrHw around the 2:30 mark.
On the other hand we have a chance to save the tens of billions of people who will live and die in the 21st century and experience genocide, starvation, disease, child abuse, imprisonment, other violence, etc. We're already doing it -- it's achievable. It can't wait for a Mars colony!
i don't follow. why do you think those horrible things wouldn't happen on an extraterrestrial colony?
Any opinion you or I have about how long Earth will remain viable is irrelevant. There's nothing else. Mars and every other body are not viable at all and we have no way to make them so.
Interplanetary war between players that advanced would be a really fast path to extinction.
If Musk succeeds, and I believe he will, it will still be quite a long time, possibly hundreds of years, before there's any notable population on Mars beyond a single city.
They won't have any resources we don't have here, aside from Martian tourist trinkets, and the cost of getting resources from Mars to Earth would defeat any potential profit anyone could make. Musk has said this more than once. In scifi, this plot flaw is usually undone by having the alien planet possess a resource that can't be found or made anywhere else, like Avatar's unobtainium or Dune's Melange. But in the real world, that's not a thing.
If we're not fighting over resources, then what? So what if the Martian colonists declare independence? Independence from who, anyway? "Earth"? Because it won't be an extension of any existing country, it won't just be "US territory on Mars." It'll be its own entity, with inhabitants from a variety of the countries on Earth. And it's not like Earth is going to be demanding "tribute" from it, that makes no sense on any level.
In Heinlein's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress," the Earth demands grain shipments from the Moon to feed its overgrown population. But....is that likely, really? Are we really likely to be dependent on grain shipments from Mars? It's a fun scenario, but I doubt it. It seems more likely to me that they'll find ways to scale grain production with existing land, as they have done for decades and continue to do today.
In a century's time (give or take), being able to build sprawling, cheap (for certain values of cheap), polluting factories without having to worry about poisoning the local rivers or running afoul of environmental regulations might start to look like a decent deal.
i believe the point was:
"Weyland-Yutani is consistently portrayed as exhibiting the worst aspects of corporate profiteering, willing to sacrifice decency and life in the endless pursuit of profits."
And by the time it does, I'm sure there will be competitors.
The value proposition is that for a half-million you get to move to Mars, and you can return free if you decide you don't like it. (You still spent the half-million though.) So sell your house, move to Mars.
It be a lot easier to mine asteroids and build colonies in Earth or solar orbit. And potentially hugely profitable if they choose a platinum-rich asteroid.
See further: 'The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space' by Gerard K. O'Neill
'Mining the Sky' by John S. Lewis
Most of their customers do not need the extra payload / push of Falcon Heavy and so they're concentrating on making F9 itself work first. This is reasonable I think.
2018 with a Falcon Heavy is optimistic. The first flight of the Falcon Heavy isn't expected until 2017. Last year, the first flight was scheduled for spring 2016, but it's slipped to the "end of 2016", which means 2017 in SpaceX time.
Space-X needs to get those paid Falcon 9 launches going faster. That's the revenue generator. They're a year behind on launches, and they've been losing unhappy customers to Arianespace. The Brownsville launch site project is way behind schedule; they're building on sandy soil (what did they expect on the east coast of Texas?) and have delayed a year or two for soil compaction.
It's great to have an ambitious program, but the profitable products have to ship.
as was noted in another comment[0]:
“We’re particularly excited about an upcoming SpaceX project that would build upon a current ‘no-exchange-of-funds’ agreement we have with the company,” noted NASA deputy Administrator Dava Newman. “In exchange for Martian entry, descent, and landing data from SpaceX, NASA will offer technical support for the firm’s plan to attempt to land an uncrewed Dragon 2 spacecraft on Mars.”
SpaceX gets expertise and technical support, and NASA gets data. This isn't a normal contract where NASA is paying with cash.
There also was the idea to use it for sample return missions, not sure what became of that. EDIT: Seems to be planned for 2022 at the earliest, see http://www.space.com/30504-spacex-red-dragon-mars-sample-ret...
In the meantime, it's known that there's a high-performance methane-fueled engine in development as part of the project ("Raptor"), with some component tests already underway at test facilities, and several dropped hints about components (including rockets substantially more powerful than the Saturn V used for Apollo lunar missions), but not enough publicly released to determine much about how operations would work.
It'll be interesting to find out if the payload capacity of the MAV is actually enough for a crewed capsule to be launched to rendezvous with an orbiting vessel (a la The Martian), or if that would require a much larger descent vehicle in the first place.
[1] http://www.space.com/24984-spacex-mars-mission-red-dragon.ht...
Some background here: https://www.quora.com/Can-a-person-of-non-U-S-citizenship-ge...