The $2 Trillion Project to Get Saudi Arabia’s Economy Off Oil
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Usually when an inexperienced, reckless and spoiled brat succeeds in a corrupt and undemocratic political system, it's likely the final chapter of that system because the new power holder/grabber would wreck the house beyond repair thinking that he's instituting reforms when he's really undoing all the hard work done by his tyrannical but savvy predecessors to keep things together.
Kudos to Mohammad Salman and I wish him all luck in his endeavor and that he outperforms the likes of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi or King Farook of Egypt in destroying monarchy in their respective lands.
Also, it's very intriguing that there was not a single political item on his "reformist" agenda and yet Bloomberg managed to portray him as some kind of a visionary man that will emancipate women by finally granting them the right to own and drive cars as in other neighboring reactionary countries like Qatar, and restructuring the economy away from fluctuating oil revenues to another rent-seeking investment banking venture to finance the lavish lifestyle of their family, House of Saud.
I guess those IB fees and pending privatization deals do make wonders to Bloomberg's editorial policy. Money talks, bullshit walks indeed.
This. For example, every post-Stalin U.S.S.R leader. The watering down started with Kruschev [1] and culminated in Glasnost. What followed was the period of humiliation, poverty and looting at "the end of history" ie the 90's.
This is key to understanding the popularity of Putin.
I went through the article, hoping to discover how the prince got his education.
* "His father is an avid reader, and he liked to assign his children one book per week, and then quiz them to see who’d read it."
* "His mother, through her staff, organized DAILY extracurricular courses and field trips and brought in INTELLECTUALS for three-hour discussions."
'
His mother's practice of matching intellectuals with her kids supports John Holt's theories of proper child education.
'I have never let my schooling interfere with my education.' -Mark Twain
"Education is what remains after one has forgotten what one has learned in school." - Albert Einstein
As for his mother's actions, I believe children who are exposed to more adults (especially experts), grow up to be quite confident and unencumbered by their age or perceived inexperience.
From my view, those who put the prince in trouble with the previous king were less annoyed by the changes than the fact that a 26 year old BOY (prince) was causing changes.
In 2007, Prince Mohammed graduated fourth in his class from King Saud University with a bachelor’s degree in law
Many of the Saudis who would take a different opinion on women's rights etc, do not live in KSA.
Here in this country we had some guys that went to Yale and managed to get control of the government and felt they had the right to torture people in secret prison camps.
Happens I guess.
http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/tree_map/export/sau/all...
I guess this signals interesting times ahead for tech, biotech, and clean energy entrepreneurs in S.A.
Look at the corruption that EU projects have ...
Innovation and technology just doesn't thrive in an illiberal society.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_in_the_medieval_Islami...
After all, Christianity to a long time to become central in Europe. In 300 they where only something like 10% of the Roman population. Not to mention looking very different from 'Modern' Christianity.
It could be said of the salafi sect of Islam that rules/controls Saudi Arab. But Islamic practices are as varied as any other religion. Unfortunately the percentage of conservative Muslims could be higher, than perhaps other religions (or practices), which managed to evolve. But I dare say, a lot of the stagnation is due to the geo politics of the region (or simply Oil economy and vested interests of US). Which wanted just strong allies, which could ensure stability and flow of Oil at cheap enough prices.
> Remember that Islam is not just the book, it is the people that practice it.
But even within Islamic cultures its so varied, if you look at people in Saudi Arabia, to those in Iran, to those in Turkey, to those in India/Pakistan, to those in Indonesia.
So lets look at history of Iran, which under the 1st Shah brought in lot of modernity. And was about to settle into a British like monarchy, when Mossadegh was democratically elected in 1952, and 2nd Shah was playing a retired monarch's role. Unfortunately Mossadegh was too ambitious and wanted to nationalize Iran's oil, and CIA and MI contrived to plan a coup and forced Shah 2nd to come back. Which later on resulted in 79 Islamic revolution.
So that single incident set Iran back by perhaps 50 years, in terms of reforms and modernity.
So some facts (like your terse and singular classification) may actually be not so, but be a lot layered and complex .
It also feels to me that Islamic society is lagging behind Christianity in a few regards, so some of what we may now perceive as bad or even evil traits may just vanish over time anyway.
I believe these things can and will change. For one thing, many, if not most Muslims will cease to believe/practice as strongly as they do now, and for another, I do believe that devout Muslims are able to modernize their interpretations.
Way I see it is a step in the right direction for the country and a good move, let us not lambaste it upon other area's and surely some praise for the good moves as well as lambasting the bad moves should be equally viewed. This is a good move, nothing to do with other issues and if anything only touches those other issues in a way that helps address them at the core.
After all people without money and jobs are people with time to ponder alternative avenues of life choices with some seeing them as the only way, that is how many get drawn down the darker paths of life. This helps prevent that.
Another way to view this is - what harm can come from this initiative and with that I have nothing to add. So it is a good thing.
Now fathers will teach their daughters, oh you don't have to drive (or even be allowed to ride a bicycle) because you can just take the train.
Right now, Saudi has a huge income from oil. If they divest well, they could have a huge income from investments. In either case, the lot of the poor in Saudi Arabia doesn't change. Unless they change how they allocate the money, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer.
The only thing aside from oil that they have is Mecca and Hajj.
Do they need anything more than oil? Many here pretend to be ready to crusade to save SA women, or install democracy or anything, but are they willing to impose a trade embargo to SA? Obvious answer is no.
We don't really need their oil that much. We could mend relationships with Venezuela which is closer (again, mend,not make a coup) and most of our production is local anyway with fracking being popular. So it is not like we don't have any choice.
I am disqusted with SA, over many things.
Also, to be clear, as someone who is not politician, I am just suggestion options, I wouldn't presume I know exactly what US government should do, but this can give you idea where I am coming from.
https://goo.gl/maps/8XXa4zSxHAL2 They've already got this massive farming operation in the middle of the desert. With 2 trillion they could desalinate so much water. Pricing is something like 1000 gallons of seawater for a few dollars, $2 trillion could desalinate a millionth of the ocean.
i mean, investing requires skill, and you can get burned if you're not really smart and knowledgeable and agile. All things in which many states ( not just oil states) are not very famous for.
I live in the Gulf right now, and hang out with investment professionals occasionally. The prevailing opinion appears to be that local investors are shrewd at a tactical level, but terrible at long term planning because of a tendency to go after flashy, high risk/high return prestige projects.
There is also the distinct lack of local sophistication: almost all investors are reliant on non-local agents for due diligence and investment lead generation. I guarantee that this is going to come back to bite them down the road: incentives need to be aligned, and right now, they simply aren't.
Is this for deals happening outside the Gulf (i.e. buying London or NYC property), or for all kinds of transactions, even within the Gulf?
I suspect that the same thinking that causes them to hire cheap migrant labor to build out their infrastructure operates at a higher form where finance is concerned.
It'll be interesting to see where these programs go over the next few years.
How do they find another $1.5T? $700M is 0.05% of that.
"Based simply on its oil reserves and using a conservative valuation of roughly $10 per barrel, Aramco could be worth more than $2.5 trillion." [0]
Then:
- $45/barrel (current price) --> roughly $11.25 trillion
- $100/barrel --> $22.5 trillion
etc
Thing is, where will the barrel price go? Any major or minor [1] event can move the price up or down.
[0] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/too-big-to...
[1] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilan...
[1] http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/02/03/465476188/episo...
What could possibly go wrong?
Is there another side to their story? [The Real House of Saud](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmSRWXCosxc) Abby Martin, (formerly with RT) conducts an expose.
No meaningful questions of 'marginal' topics like the pointless the Yemen war, the support of ISIS and other unsavoury organisations. And exactly why does the interview accept him has head of state at all? Why should the House of Saud govern, and not be replaced by a democracy?
That is a very, very naive question tho, don't you think?
eric001: That is a very, very naive question tho, don't you think?
Sometimes it takes a dictator to bring about democracy, simply because he dictates it that way.
How would that fix any of the issues that SA is facing right now?
Understanding the mechanisms the House of Saud uses to stay in power is probably a small first step in the transition to something better.
Switching to a democracy would mean nobody need pander to the Wahhabi sect.
See: http://clarionproject.org/analysis/islamists-using-democracy...
We have to face the reality here; if the "religious sect" is so powerful that it can challenge the absulotist monarch, then it's definitely powerful enough to play divide-and-conquer with different democratic parties.
SA's problems are plenty, but it shares the entire region's SPOF economy. Tackling that shouldn't be dismissed because we don't like the government. Suffering the hardest happens to the least of people, so making the transition to a post-oil economy as smooth as possible - House of Saud in tact - still prevents an incredible amount of suffering.
But yhere is a world of difference between a journalist asking critical questions, and bombing a country.
It's a journalist's task to ask autocratic rulers critical questions. The Bloomberg piece does not do this, instead raving "how comfortable meeting him was".
The target audience of this piece is the US population. The house of Saud invests a great deal of money in misleading the US population, so as to ensure that the US continues its support of the status quo, which is highly convenient for the House of Saud, but a disaster for just about anybody else. See e.g. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/04/20/...
The question how to engineer a peaceful transition away from the House of Saud to a meaningful democracy (or even a more enlightened dictatorship such as Dubai), is a deep and complex one, and I don't purport to have an answer. But it's good to understand how autocratic rulers such as the House of Saud manipulate public opinion.
That said, I can understand, to a degree "comfort" netting him, etc. It is a head of state, but more importantly, the whole government/ruling family is quite mysterious. You have no idea how practical his ideas will be, especially at that scale.
Still, though, you're right. Any amount of serious journalism here would have been welcome.
Not always, unless you are doing a hit piece. Sometimes it is also a task to simply gather information on a subject that people know very little about. Sometimes the process of gathering info is so sensitive that you don't want to do anything to influence the observations you make like cause discomfort and create moments of silence.
There were some important revelations in this article. It shows the leadership is trying to make changes. It highlights the stakes involved. It shows the geopolitical map of Saudi Arabia. That is not fluff.
No it's not. It is, as a whole, the job of journalism to do that, but not necessarily a specific journalist's job.
A journalist's job is to tell the truth, not necessarily the whole truth. There is often quite a bit of value in getting the perspective of a single person or entity on a specific subject without attempting to add full and complete context.
It's in Bloomberg's best interests to make the ME look less like a one-trick pony so general market consensus goes up (any volatility = TV going off mute + viewership retention & people going to their Bloomberg terminals, etc).
It's in the journo's best interests because he gets '8 exclusive unprecedented hours' upping his profile so his executive editor will choose him for the next interview with Bill Gross or whomever.
It's in the House of Saud's best interest for a wide variety of reasons. Everyone's got to get their pound (Franc, greenback, yen, ruble, or .. )
W/r/t having a nation with a PR/lobby in the US - I guarantee you every nation with a GDP of eh maybe half a trillion will have one. Look at the registered employee list of K-street firms and their clientele.
The closest thing you'll get to 'hard hitting questions' (and I'm not talking hit-pieces, I'm talking about Kronkite and Murrow) is the BBC Newshour (Lyse Ducette and Owen Bennet Jones -- though Americans find it dry, I couldn't love their coverage more, although it's a bit of a family love-affair), PBS Newshour (basically everyone on their staff), and to some extent Shane & Sooresh's VICE which has retained some of the best producers and on-the-ground coverage I've seen in recent news.
Yes, and it's largely because of Saudi Arabia:
"Saudi Arabia has maintained a high level of oil production despite the slump in crude oil prices, arguing it needs to protect its market share in an economy in flux because of the glut of U.S. oil."
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Industry/2015/07/13/...
Case in point: Here[1] is an article that spends a considerable chunk talking about how Norway pours money into Brookings Institution and Center for Global Development and others to influence US policy.
"The country has committed at least $24 million to an array of Washington think tanks over the past four years, according to a tally by The Times, transforming these nonprofits into a powerful but largely hidden arm of the Norway Foreign Affairs Ministry. "
Lobbying the US government is basically essential for any foreign power because of the outsize influence the US has on the world.
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/us/politics/foreign-powers...
I am not a lover the SA regime, but it's important that one's lack of geopolitical knowledge doesn't spread more misinformation.
By democracy, you mean dictatorship, right? The Shah and Saddam were both supported by Western oil, industrial, and finance interests and were hardly "democratic".
Does it occur to you that the problem here is that Western-exported democracies aren't democracies, but instead puppet states? This has little resemblance to a real democracy founded by members of its own nation with their own cultural values.
There's a big difference between invading Saudi Arabia and setting up a banana republic, and journalism that criticizes the Saudis for their authoritarianism.
> Tackling that shouldn't be dismissed because we don't like the government.
No one is doing that. We can accurately describe all of Saudi Arabia's issues, including their authoritarian rulers.
https://geopoliticsmadesuper.com/2016/04/20/why-saudi-arabia...
In short: liberal democracy requires liberal elites to be present and not vastly outnumbered. Without this condition fulfilled what you get after a revolution is what you had before despotism: tribalism and sectarianism, permanent civil war and the likes.
If the elites are not vastly outnumbered, they kind of aren't elite anymore, they're just normal people.
It's an entirely Western colonist idea that poor people in developing countries can't handle democracy and therefore have to accept dictatorships (which just happen to align with Western interests).
Look, no one is able to "handle democracy" before being prepared for this. Isn't this obvious? Even the Tsar Peter the Great, who wanted to modernize Russia, went and for a couple of years studied technical skills in Holland (IIRC - I may be wrong on all the details here...) instead of simply saying "let's make our shipyards modern! now!".
I never said that the societies in the Middle East can't ever do democracy. I just said that if they tried right now the results wouldn't be pretty. Give them another two or three decades of successive education and liberalization and they will be able to build a modern, well-functioning democracy overnight!
I think the relationship between the West and western-supported regimes is a lot more complicated.
That's what I thought when I saw the bloomberg cover. I wonder if he paid the article or bloomberg really cares if SA does this or that.
However, Al-Saud family was heavily financed and armed by the British during 1900 onwards. People's allegiences were divided among the Sharif of Mecca Hussain bin Ali, the House of Rashid, the Ottomans, and the Al Saud-Wahhabi alliance. It is not hard to imagine that these forces would have evolved in different ways during industrialization, post-Colonial and Cold War times.
Besides, there have been external forces at play to further or curtail the direction Saudi affairs are going in during the times of King Saud and King Faisal respectively. So it is not as if the people have necessarily chosen the kingdom system of Saudi Arabia while the West has installed democracies.
While not democratic, I think Sharif Hussain of Macca, the Ottomans, and to a lesser extent King Faisal of the Al-Saud would have moved things towards a more representative system. King Faisal's efforts brought women's education to Saudi Arabia and added a little (if only a trickle) to scientific education in some countries in Africa and Asia through student financial aid programs.
So there are various contradictory forces at play locally and globally and nothing stays constant.
This treaty (and the subsequent Treaty of Jeddah in 1927) legitimized their control over their territory and allowed Ibn Saud to go on to create the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932.
The Arab people had no part in the creation of the Saudi state. It was created by conquest combined with the support of foreign powers (the United Kingdom).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Saud https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Darin
Someone should make a plugin that counts the number of times a brand is mentioned in an "article" and uses ML/crowdsources votes to show a "sponsored content" or "submarine" score. Even if there is some interesting point to be made, I hate being manipulated into reading longform ads.
Additionally I would love to see an investigation by "straight" or freelance journalists into the world of PR/submarines that includes the going rates for pieces like this, getting on the front cover of a magazine like Bloomberg business week, etc.
As to the substance of the article: want to move off oil? You're going to need to start taxing your citizens. Now that will be an interesting transition to watch.
Not all countries can handle democracy, its not a magic cure.
The truth is that you cannot bring democracy overnight to a place and expect it to stick. It seems that the people of said country have to fight for it tooth and nail before it sticks.
Not pointless if you follow the politics of the region. Those are all done for breaking Iran's expanding sphere of terror.
Might be paid propaganda, but it looked like the guy was much more worried about Saudi Arabia's future than making "the World" a better place. That self-interest looks pretty credible to me.
By whom, you?
Those down voting: it's valuable information to know what people like that guy are thinking. You can put as much or as little weight on that information as you want but the optimal weight is unlikely to be zero
https://amp.twimg.com/v/f72f7279-f0e4-4953-9549-d2243b49a20b