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Actual gathered statistics say you're wrong. Profile guided optimisations can easily add 20% performance or more. And for that to work, the easiest path for the developer is a tiered JIT. More concretely, you can disable the tiered JIT on the JVM and find out what it buys you (and there are people who have done this).

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The fact is that before the JVM has a chance to optimize the code, the app already restarted by the user unless it is some long running server process. On the server side, JVM is so heavy, normally there is only 1-2 heavy JVM running for web server and database driver on the entire machine. On the client side, Java is a joke. Though users now have more choices: Swing, AWT, JavaFx. Every one of these is hard to use comparing with C# or Qt. Most native platform developers hate Java, including OSX developers.

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