Edward Snowden thinks a global iPhone attack will happen this year

Let's analyze whether one is likely.

The FBI has stated that they cracked a single iPhone 5. Ignoring the possibility that they lie (which I give a small, but non-zero probability), we do not know whether that attack:

- works against all iPhone 5s, irrespective of configuration.

- works again newer iPhones

- works remotely (either directly or through a very popular application that breaks through the sandbox)

The first two will limit any problem that occurs, the latter is required for this to become a huge problem. Also, the "via an application that breaks out of the sandbox" route, IMO, would lead to a relatively small-scale problem because Apple will disable the application fairly soon, and because it is less likely to be a truly popular app in the Twitter/Facebook range.

The big problem is how to assign probabilities to these. My guess would be that one shouldn't worry too much. If there is a way to do this, it apparently already is on the market, and whoever has it for sale, will want to sell it ASAP, because exploits can become as good as worthless overnight.