Lyft gaining on Uber as it spends big on growth
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If you take a truly long-term view, the marketplace for on-demand drivers will become obsolete once autonomous driving becomes good enough to be adopted everywhere. At that point, Uber's biggest edge -financing and supply-side field logistics- will erode very quickly against companies that own vehicle production (auto giants) and AI (autonomous driving)
Uber knows this, and that's why they have been investing a lot of money on robotics and AI around their partnership with CMU. However, they still do not get the kind of data Google can get from their Maps and Waze (It's interesting to note that Lyft and Waze partnered) to enable their AI researchers.
Uber is still going to be a very successful company in the next few years: For technical and legal reasons, self-driving, on-demand vehicle services will be at least a decade out. But I'm not as sure about Uber's survival in, say, 20 years.
Keep in mind that AARP is excited about driverless cars because for millions of seniors, losing their ability to drive means losing their independence. Also, by age 50, everyone knows somebody killed by a human-driven car. AARP's members vote at very high rates even in non-presidential elections, so they are a very powerful lobby.
http://www.aarp.org/home-family/personal-technology/info-201...
There's also the psychological issues: elderly people don't want to be a 'burden' or rely on strangers, and autonomous cars neatly solve both issues.
There seems to be so much positive traction among political and industry players that this might turn out to be one of those rare technologies who's progress doesn't get crippled by vested incumbents. But experience has taught me to be cautiously optimistic at best.
It'll be "Cash for clunkers" redux. Much amplified is my guess. Human-driven cars will be ilegal on public roads in very short order.
The way cultural currents are going, there's a lot of room for companies to make marketing headway through "we are nicer" and "we are not douchebags" public images. (Hopefully, fairly accurate public images.)
I mean, when it's been years since Apple has been parodied with a "We're mad with power" tagline, and when public shaming has become a way of life online, it's about time for nice.
I'm not holding my breath, it'll be a looong time (decades, plural) before driver-less cars work everywhere, in poor weather conditions, in areas with lots of cyclists and pedestrians, in developing nations and parts of developed nations with bad roads, bad or unenforced traffic laws etc.. Human drivers will have a reduced role, but they won't be "obsolete" any time soon.
Driver-less cars likely means people taking more trips, causing more congestion and more pollution on the roads where they can actually operate. I wouldn't be surprised if some cities ban them.
But you are 100% right that congestion will be the problem. Cars simply do not scale well, as the amount of sqft/passenger/minute is huge. We seem to be unwilling to devote the huge amounts of land to highways that we would need to in order to make congestion go away. And in cities, intersections can only let so many vehicles through per minute.
As another commenter said, traffic is a good problem, however it's only good until it stops trips. It's great for people to be moving about, but when traffic prevents that, it's bad.
Autonomous drivers give people back their time in the car to do with as they please, but they will definitely increase congestion.
Depends. In St. Louis, for example, a fully electric vehicle produces the same pollution (via the power plant) as a 36mpg car [0]. That's about in line with a highly-rated compact like the Golf or Mazda3 these days.
Electric vehicles give us the capability to reduce emissions by building cleaner electrical infrastructure, but that does not mean we will do so.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_long_tailpipe#Carbon_footp...
Additionally, pollution concentrations matter for cities, specifically dumping the exhaust out right next to people vs. dumping it at remote locations where it has more area to dilute before encountering people.
The long tail pipe hypothesis seems to be a bunch of people trying to desperately prove that electric cars are no better, but they have to resort to extreme cases to try to justify their positions. 36mpg which pollutants? Certainly not all them. CO2 from pure coal is something like a 50 mpg car. And as we get rid of these inferior and more expensive sources of electricity, electric cars will only increase their lead over gas vehicles.
And when there's a surplus of self-driving cars, where do they go?
There will be an increase in miles driven per passenger mile in order to get the self driving cars to where they need to be, when they need to be.
No one wants to own a single person car, because even a single person wants to be able to carry passengers if they need to. But lots of people will be making single person journeys all the time, so it makes sense for a taxi company to own them.
Until your kid gets asthma so people can have the privilege of spending 2 hours in a car commuting.
Not to mention making the roads less usable for everyone who isn't in a car.
At least the legal reasons are now moot at least in Germany, as all the laws required for self-driving cars have already been passed.
All the harbors and airports have been using fully automated vehicles for transport on their area for quite a while now, and the recent showcase where autonomous trucks from all european car manufacturers drove to the netherlands has shown reliability on streets as well.
At least in the transport market autonomous cars are less than half a decade out.
Google is invested in uber, why would they not supply them the data they needed?
From the VC side, Google Ventures invested ~$250M in Uber a few years ago.
How is it they're afraid of Google?
Isn't Google Ventures pretty isolated from Google?
Though what I do think will happen is an erosion of their lead where they go from the sole 800lb gorrilla in the west to being one of many with automakers coming into their own offering self driven taxi style service on what will probably be a subscription model (like how we have monthly payments for cars today).
Either this, or I could easily seeing aggregator apps, similar to the many that have popped up to manage multiple social media accounts, appearing to help drivers and riders manage both Uber and Lyft accounts.
You might already know that, but for everyone who doesn't live in a city where they're available... :)
GM also aquired Cruise which builds automated driving kits http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/...
When traveling for work I often use Uber and recently there was consistent surge pricing. The first day it made sense since it was raining. But then the next few times I used it there was surge pricing - not much, like 1.1x or 1.3x. I agreed because it wasn't too much more and I needed to get to my meetings and it can be expensed. I mentioned to my Uber driver there was a surge and he said it didn't come up as a surge for him. The next trip later that day the surge was 2.2x
But then when I got back home I noticed every time I've brought the Uber app up there is a "surge". Even during fine weather and non-traditional surge times. I look outside and there are taxis available (NYC) and I opened Lyft and there were plenty of options without any surge.
It was probably bad luck (I don't really think they'd get that greedy that quickly) but it made me try Lyft and I had the exact same experience as Uber.
I suppose this is the market at work.
I think most customers are initially averse to ever paying more than 1x, but once you've gotten used to paying 1.1x or 1.2x, you realize it's still typically much cheaper than a taxi. It's ultimately in everyone's interests for prices to adjust quickly and smoothly to demand.
Anyone know if these numbers from 2014 still holds up?
http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-vs-taxi-pricing-by-city-...
I have no idea why they'd assume that people will tip taxies 20% and not tip the Uber drivers (who presumably make less?) -- it certainly seems like an odd way to compare prices ("a is cheaper than b when you choose to give b more money!"). Does Uber have some kind of policy on tipping? And how would that even work, assuming you pay cash?
I do wonder how much of that lower price on Uber is due to tax evasion and dodging licenses and registrations etc.
I've taken both NYC taxis and Uber many times and always tip in a taxi and never in Uber.
> Does Uber have some kind of policy on tipping?
Yes. Uber does not encourage tipping and cash payments aren't allowed.
I'm guessing the smoothing you describe comes from the fact that the pool of uber drivers has grown dramatically of late.
I try Lyft first as surge pricing seems scarcer on that platform, but I always check Uber if Lyft has surge pricing or my wait time is too long.
I've heard Lyft pays them slightly better, so perhaps that's part of it.
The data is so mind boggling bad that I seriously doubt the self driving car will ever come to be. The mapping data is accurate, but the systems insist on sending drivers to the wrong spot. How are you going to tell the self driving car where to actually go?
Also, I've observed anecdotally that the Lyft passengers are nicer. I've talked with various people about why that is and there are various theories, but generally the idea is that it starts at the top. Uber has a history of dick moves and I think that reflects in the different clientele.
Plus in the Central Texas area, all of the drivers that I have used who work for both TNCs indicate that Lyft treats them better than Uber.
I uninstalled the app shortly after and exclusively use Lyft now.
Nonetheless I prefer doing away with tips for other reasons:
* It’s just one more thing I have to decide, and I’m tired of doing it. I don’t even do a good job. I often tip people based on completely irrelevant things.
* Tips don’t lead to better/friendlier service. Taxi drivers regularly get well over 20% tips but I’ve had very few good experiences in a taxi. Rather, they just expect a tip and get quite made if you leave a small one.
* Tipping is gamed by service workers who learn what to do to get bigger tips and then focus on those things. Other aspects of service are often neglected.
* In Japan service is far superior to America in all the ways I care about, but tipping is virtually nonexistent. Having spent time there, I just can’t get behind tipping.
I've always just set it to the maximum tip amount, because I figured (a) It's not that much, and (b) it would result in me getting better ratings, though after what GP said, maybe they have no idea how much I tipped :-/
I know my Lyft drivers likely drive for Uber too but in an Uber I don't expect a friendly driver so I never give them a chance. In a Lyft I try to strike up a conversaion and often enjoy it.
This is the case in most cities for brokered taxis with or without Uber/Lyft. It takes working long hours and good luck that your car doesn't break down to make a decent wage.
Lyft also sends training videos and material to drivers. Because of the possibility of the tip drivers are trying their best.
It's a good idea to tip to drivers that do a good job. They are low income people and deserve that extra $1 more than your bartender that usually earns a good chunk of money each night.
Lyft's mentorship process wasn't much of a process in my experience. I met a guy at his house, we talked for about 45 minutes, it was kind of helpful but I felt like Uber's onboarding was more organized.
Uber also has a number of training videos and I think they do a better job than Lyft at providing information to drivers.
I agree that the tipping thing is huge. When I drive, I get out of the car and open the door for the passengers, that kind of thing. I also make a point of keeping the car clean; at least vacuuming before I work a shift. I keep Armor All wipes in the car too so I can give a quick shine to the dashboard and the door frame (it gets scuffed up from people getting in and out and shows dirt quickly).
2) Uber is already investing heavily in its own self-driving cars and has stated plans to buy as many self-driving cars as it can if someone else beats them to the punch. So really the choice will be between owning your own car (very high upfront cost and maintenance costs) and using a self-driving car service. I think many people will opt for the latter.
I don't think it's quite that simple, though I don't see mentioned the rate of Lyft's growth in key markets.
"Meanwhile, Uber has been working to fulfill a promise to shareholders and employees that it would achieve profitability in North America by the second quarter of 2016, a milestone it says it has now reached in the U.S. and Canada."
The effects of this are being felt in engineering, there is a freeze on any new hardware purchases at the moment. You need a new server? Too bad, make do with what you've got. They've also reduced perks for new hires, and new hires are being stiffed in terms of compensation compared to what employees were getting just a few months ago, both in terms of stock and base salary and Uber credits.
The real survival struggle is against Apple, Tesla and Google.