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Effective transit is what makes tall buildings in Tokyo work.

SF would need to invest tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in transit in order to make Tokyo style densities work. Just digging out the sides of Embarcadero station to allow two-sided boarding for BART is projected to cost a billion dollars.

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If people who work in SF could also live in SF, wouldn't that reduce the demand for taking BART across the bay? Yes, that's oversimplifying things a bit, but the principle seems sound.

It's a chicken and the egg problem. If the population is denser, than public transport systems like light rail, become cheaper and more effective. If the amount of people within 1km (i.e. walkable distance) of a light rail system doubles, then people are closer to a train station and it's potential customer base has increased.

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