Yup. And, as vc dollars start drying up and companies get pressure to become profitable again, employers will figure out where to go: out of San Francisco.
Of course, most of those profitable company jobs are in the south bay, not in SF proper, but hell, if I could buy one of those mini-condos in sf for a quarter mill, I'd jump on it.
I'm trying to say that I'm not sure that the vc-dependent will have as much effect on the market overall as you say, unless the slowdown progresses to the point where it starts pulling down the big guys.
(which isn't impossible. someone put forth the theory that a lot of the highest-margin advertising dollars come from said vc-dependent firms, and if those went away, everyone would pay a lot less for advertising, which would dramatically effect the big, profitable employers around here. I would rate that theory as plausible, but not certain.)
You don't have to many any assumptions about advertising dollars (the vast majority of which come from outside SV) to see how a startup slowdown will also have an impact on all engineering salaries.
Yeah. I guess two questions.
1. how much of the market for Engineers is vc-dependent startups? My impression is that they have an outsized PR footprint for the number of jobs there.
2. If I'm right that they get paid less, (which is my experience and belief, but I have no hard data to back up my assertion) are the engineers working at startups mostly just entry-level folks? (this is kind of my impression, or at least they seem to be way less experienced than folks you see at established companies, though again, I don't have hard data.)
I mean, inarguably, it will have some effect, but how much depends a lot on those two factors.
Based on my inbox, half the hiring is from startups.
> are the engineers working at startups mostly just entry-level folks?
No. Startup compensation is certainly less cash, but it's also more variable. At better startups, you'll find plenty of senior engineers including ex-BigCo people.
Also keep in mind that for top engineers there's also the competitive option of founding a startup. If funding cools down substantially, then that prospect becomes much less attractive and companies have to worry less about retaining talent.
In my experience, If you are not an 'executive track' type; I mean, if you don't have both the contacts and the business skills, you are generally going to make a lot more money as an Engineer at a big company. I mean, like most technical people, I used to think I was a lot smarter than my boss. I mean, I maybe still think that, depending on what you mean by 'smart' - but I tried, and I can tell you that business is a complex thing that requires a completely different skillset, and after trying it? smart or not, it's something I'm terrible at, or at least if you compare the "what a big company would pay for the labor in" even to my raw revenue, I apparently destroy a lot of value.
And yes, yes, you partner with a business person! But... you know how there are 10x programmers? the difference in productivity of business people is way, way bigger than 10x. And just like hiring Engineers, it takes one to know one... I'd argue that it's even harder to hire a businessperson profitably, because negotiation and perception management are core skills for the businessperson.
However, people (including very good engineers) are not rational and in boom times are attracted to the idea of founding a startup even if it's economically undesirable.