A year after launch, it’s now clear that pretty much no one needs an Apple Watch
qz.com
qz.com
- Concord Mariner
- M&Co. "10-5-1"
- Apple Watch
It is not news to me that a watch is a luxury item. It is jewelry. Now that being said, it also does some lightweight fitness stuff for me. It provides unobtrusive notifications. I have made and taken a very small number of calls with it. It is more convenient to start and stop Strava with my Apple Watch than with my phone, and that saves me buying a dedicated bike computer.All together, I say it is jewelry that happens to provide some handy-dandy reasons for rationalizing my purchase of jewelry. What is the problem here?
Now if Apple isn't selling a metric fuck-ton of watches, is that a failure? No. It is only a failure if Apple is not selling watches, but Samsung is selling watches, and Google releases a Nexus watch, and so on.
If "Smart Watches" become huge and Apple Watch is squeezed out, Apple could one day discover people buy a watch, then purchase a phone, tablet, and laptop that are compatible with the watch, instead of purchasing a watch that is compatible with their iPhone, iPad, and Macbook.
Thus, Apple may say they want to sell a bajillion watches, but what they really need to do is sell enough watches and have enough credibility that if smart watches disrupt smart phones, Apple already has a seat at the table.
The DeLorean Effect.
I thought maps/navigation were the killer app for smartphones - for many other things you could use a laptop instead, but being able to use your phone to navigate was just so damn useful that you'd be a fool not to buy one if you could afford it. Neither Google Glass nor the Apple Watch seem to have hit on a magic thing that they do so much better than a phone, so far.
There are lots of reports of people swimming with their Apple watches. I shower with mine on all the time. But Apple is simply not quite ready to guarantee that you can swim with your watch.
You'd figure it would have some level of waterproofing, as any sport device is expected to handle a lot of sweaty athletes.
But Apple doesn't promise it and it would void your warranty. It's a question of if you're willing to risk $400+ on people's anecdotes or not.
I was considering writing my own app for laps, and I do believe there was a story shortly after the watch came out where someone else worked on an app like that, but obviously it would not be allowed on the store. :(
If Apple can displace the swiss watch I used to wear from my wrist, they're moving in the right direction in my opinion.
The question is - does anyone really need a watch when they have a phone in their pocket? No.
However, do I feel properly dressed if I go out without a watch? No.
that's what the top commenter fail to realize. nobody needs expensive watches, but the communicate that you have disposable income and maybe good taste. an apple watch communicates you're a nerd. which may be quaint in some parts of San Francisco.
I respectfully disagree.
Like all objects, watches hold different meanings to different people. For you, it sounds like they are a social signalling mechanism - but not for everyone. For example, if you collect watches you'll appreciate many aspects of these wonderful objects. Take the Omega Speedmaster 105.003 - it's vintage, it's probably expensive, and it looks like your grandfathers watch. I could care less what it signals to others, for me - it's the watch NASA sent to the moon. It's mechanical. It's an object that I love! I wear it because it pleases me to look at it.
However, having said that - I now wear an Apple watch for a completely different reason - it's functional. It's more useful than the Omega.
Wearing a watch is not about social signalling for everyone. Some people just like watches :-)
An interesting example. If they had been assembled under license by a little-known NASA contracted-company in Illinois, would you still be as keen on it?
Until 1979 Soviet cosmonauts used their standard pilot-issue Strela watch, including on EVAs. In the West it was branded and sold as Sekonda[0]. Without the cachet of a luxury brand and extensive marketing it is almost unknown despite being just as functional as the Speedmaster.
http://www.netgrafik.ch/russian_space_watches.htm
[0] The Sekonda trademark was later sold and today has no connection with the original watch
Yes, the brand doesn't hold a lot of meaning for me - in any case (no pun intended) it's not just Omega. Arguably one of the most important parts - he movement itself, wasn't actually designed by Omega. It's a Lemania Calibre 1873 (Omega branded this as Calibre 861).
Extreme temperatures, vibration, pressure, acceleration, shock and so on; the 1873 enclosed within an Omega case survived all of this with +- 5 seconds per day accuracy. Moreover, it outperformed the qualification conditions against other well-funded, experienced watch makers. For me, this is impressive.
If the same watch was built by a little-known company out of Illinois, I'd be even more impressed!
P.S. Thanks very much for the information on Soviet watches, I'm really interested to learn more about these models. Thanks again!
And that is the difference between Apple-with-Jobs and Apple-without-Jobs. Apple with Jobs didn't worry about "if smart watches disrupt..."; Apple with Jobs built products that DID disrupt.
Anyway, disruption doesn't happen in a year with the first version of a product in a brand-new market category. But when watches do become capable enough to disrupt phones, Apple is well-positioned to ride that wave.
That's a fine strategy followed by many companies. It's not usually Apple's strategy though. They pride themselves on being a huge company with a very limited product range. Even in the product ranges they do have they're not usually the first one out with new products. iPod/iPhone/iPad were all very polished products launched into markets that already had quite a few products but still took over. They have a few niche products but the watch seemed to be another of those big bets which is why people are looking at it attentively.
The problem with the absolute numbers is that wearables as a whole is a new market (in the Lean Startup) sense. You can't rush adoption in a new market: no matter how much advertising you throw at it, it still takes time for people to assimilate what the product category can do, to identify why they'd want one, and to make the purchasing decision. The best you can do is to establish a dominant position within the market so that as it grows, you grow along with it.
A good mechanical watch lasts you for life. The life of an iPhone is 3 years. Who really needs more items going obsolete every 3 years?
People forget how long it takes a new platform to develop. It took Android about a half a year to sell even a million units (Apple Watch is reportedly at 11 million). The first phones were frankly not very good: it wasn't until the Motorola Droid and Samsung Galaxy that Android started to get significant market share (see http://imgur.com/nPgiS39). New platforms always develop in fits and starts.
So what am I excited about, with Apple Watch? Think about the health implications of 11 million people wearing heart rate sensors:
1) About a quarter of all strokes are caused by abnormal heart rhythms, which are easily treated but often go undiagnosed for years. How many lives could we save just by building an algorithm for just this one problem?
2) Heart rate variability is correlated with everything from stress and depression to sleep apnea to dangerous heart rhythms to irritable bowel syndrome. Can we build tools to help us understand our inner world in as much detail as photo sharing apps have helped us map our external world?
3) We spend about a third of our lives sleeping. How much more productivity and creativity would we unleash if everybody could use data to get a good night's sleep?
4) The world is full of advice on how to exercise (should you get 10,000 steps? High intensity interval training? Yoga? Crossfit?), but what really works? More importantly, what will work for you?
5) About a quarter of Americans have pre-diabetes, but only 4% have ever been told that by a doctor. Medical research has shown that your pattern of heart rate variability shifts in the early phases of insulin resistance. Can we prevent the next generation from developing diabetes?
Those applications will take time to develop, and Apple Watch is quite clearly a first-generation product, so I can see why people are disappointed. But I think it's worth remembering that even with the iPhone, it took Apple two years to go from the first version to the iPhone 3G.
Where it really shined, I had my car in the dealer getting repaired. There was a lot of back and forth, and they used text messaging. So I could read the issue in about a second and dictate my answer and hit send. Each exchange happened in seconds compared to minutes that it would take via voice.
If Apple could that, I'd buy one and empty out my overstuffed pockets. But at the moment, I don't see any reason to buy one. Fitness tracking and the grocery list app mentioned in the article sound nice but not nice enough to buy another gadget.
Edit: Someone please, please find a way to make a watch that can replace everything in my pockets. You'll be my hero.
Edit: Convenient = it's right there all the time, you don't have to reach for anything or hold anything.
However, those same locks would be awesome if the manufacturers released a Watch app so you could manually lock and unlock the door rather than relying on proximity.
I'd love to get something like that too. The problem is that it is mostly impossible to build today... and is completely impossible to build one that sends all your data to the cloud, so the big players that could look into it won't.
I only really use it for 'glance' like interactions, when I get notifications and calls, it's nice to be able to review them or dismiss them without having to dig my phone out of my pocket, and obviously it tells the time.
Battery life is fine as well, 3-4 days between each charge.
I don't need another smartphone strapped to my wrist!
I'm not going to ever want to charge two devices when I go to bed so battery life of a watch needs to be in the order of many months.
I also regularly break my watch by banging it on things or lose it because the band breaks. But the watch is cheap, so no matter.
I guess I'm just old fashioned and out of touch :-)
Yes, it's nice to respond to a call on your wrist, and yes the health tracking (esp. the heart rate monitor) is kind of cool, but it just doesn't add that much value overall.
And there are downsides:
- The cost
- I always felt a little embarrassed wearing it for some reason; probably my own issues but I didn't like the idea that I was broadcasting "I spent $400+ on this not-that-useful watch"
- I often went running without the watch, and then it would complain I didn't do much exercise that week
- It's another "thing" to manage: charge it at night, take an extra charger with you on trips, something to get lost, etc.
I think the fallacy here is that Apple tried to create a mini iPhone plus a few extra features. But then it's not adding much incremental value, and it requires an iPhone anyway.
I'd rather the Apple Watch go in a direction that opens up new frontiers, which I think is all around the health tracking and minimizing or eliminating everything else. I'd love to get biofeedback, sleep patterns, stress level measurements, heart rate graphs throughout the day, pulse oximetry, echocardiograms, and other cool insights about my body.
My iPhone can't do any of that (without extra's), and that could make a real impact on my day-to-day.
They still took a ton of market share. Even if it's not a big market.
Frankly, I don't have any desire to own one, at all, and I use a lot of Apple products. If they could put some effort into bringing Siri to OS X that'd be nice.
As for myself? All tech conveys two qualities: cost and utility. Having emails buzzing on my wrist would likely cost me much more stress than any utility than the device could possibly hope to provide. No thanks. Smart watches are incredibly niche.
iPod HiFi? Ping? G4 Cube? Xserve?
Apple has a lot of failures, it would be almost impossible for something to be as successful as the iPhone.
Now it's just a bit thinner then the Apple watch, but the new Apple watch will be thinner then this Pebble. Will the new Apple Watch be waterproof, have GSR monitoring, headset and keyboard pairing, wifi, gps, a camera and match the weeklong battery-life?
I'd be tempted, but how developer friendly is the platform compared to Android Wear and Pebble (C and/or Javascript)?
The iPod had a slow start as well and I remember the first responses to the iPad. The time of smartwatches will come I think, question is, just like in the article what will be the killer feature?
The product has many issues but it wasn't those that made me dislike it. It's the fact that to get value from it I should wear it all day (to get accurate health tracking for example). But it made me feel like I was ALWAYS connected. Sure I can disable notifications, put it in airplane mode etc. but it just felt like too much technology. Unless it starts doing really incredible things I cannot do with my phone and cannot live without I don't see myself ever buying one again.
It's a cool product and I think they've done a good job, but wearable technology is a step too far for me.
Now I don't wear a watch, my phone is just a phone, and I deal with email in batches only once or twice a day on my laptop. I know a lot of people would go into tech withdrawal if they gave up their smartphone, but for me it feels great.
Though the voice recognition interface on some of them is kind of ok, it's not private or exact enough to make it actually useful.
We have the technology - we can built it - but why? There's still not a "killer app" nor a "killer UI" for a smart watch.
I've never understood why someone would buy a "watch" that doesn't display the time at all times. Isn't that the main point of a watch? Getting notifications and responding to texts are secondary features. A watch that doesn't tell the time is a paperweight strapped to your wrist.
Neither did I, however I found over time I got used to it.
p.s. Your photo looks awesome - is the screen really that bright?
"Want", however, is a different story. All of my family members "want" an Apple Watch but they have no needs for it. They never had a watch nor do they plan to start warning one. Their smartphones (either iOS or Android) act as a watch for them and they always have it on them.
Electricity is an essential, safe, and cost effective means of lighting. Radio/TV is a great way of receiving information about the world around you. A computer is now an essential way to get things done in the modern world and to participate in the market economy. A smartphone is a portable computer, it lets you do (almost) all the things you can with a computer on the go. It is quickly becoming essential. People need these things.
An Apple watch is just a useless status symbol, like all watches this day in age.
2. >like all watches this day in age
So, are you arguing that my $30 Timex is a useless status symbol? There sure seem to be plenty of watches of that sort still forsale.
This argument gets thrown out a lot and there is certainly some truth to it. However it is also a very sucky symbol as it is mostly hidden in sleeve and even when it isn't, most people can't tell a difference between a cheap ~200$ watch and one worth 100 times more unless it is laden with jewels or golden.
Apple Watch is certainly not useless even if you don't have a use for it. It doesn't fit my life either, but I can easily imagine a life in which it would.
I would say Internet is the essential way, not computers. Take the Internet out and the equation changes completely and you can't do much without it. Take the computers out, it still remains a valid statement.
You can use any devices you want to get on the Internet; computers, smartphones, tablets, and so on. It is up to you and you do not "need" any specific device, you "want" the smartphone because it is the most convenient portable device you can use.
Do everyone need computers? No, do everyone need Internet? Most yes, it may be the only way to pay bills for some, it may be the only way to securely communicate in an oppressive country, and so on.
You can use libraries to get access to the Internet without owning any of the electronics. So, no, people don't need these devices but they may need the Internet and they want the devices to make their life easier.
This will help against police brutality, false reports against yourself, etc.
Everyone needs one, yesterday.
And I do wear something on my face all the time, glasses. Something Google Glass totally ignored, real glasses integrated with the hardware.
This is already a decent little earner for Apple.
With arguments like this, I wonder why this article is on HN :)
b) an 5-8 million in sales (estimations go from a low 3.1 million to a high 10.5 million),
c) and 60% of its buyers saying they'll buy the next model too (just one year after they bought the previous one)? http://appadvice.com/post/most-apple-watch-owners-are-planni...
Sure, it's very "clear"...
Except if they mean "no one needs an Apple Watch" literally, in which case DUH!
But more importantly I wear watches because I enjoy wearing them. I enjoy choosing my watch based on what else I'm wearing that day. It's an accessory and fashion choice.
You've been wearing your watch wrong, I think. A watch strap should be adjusted to give a comfortable fit on the wrist, I bought a cheap GBP 10.00 stainless steel band for my LG Watch R (Android Wear) that I then got adjusted in a small watch repair market stall by a friendly Russian gentleman for another GBP 5.00 and my watch now fits perfectly. The watch works just like an analog watch with always-on time and is a useful addition to my smart phone...
Even before the Apple Watch no one who had a smartphone "needed" a watch.
it is a watch.
Wrist Activated Taptic-notifying Checking Heartrates!
Really a rather inexplicable product. There were already numerous iPod docks on the market when it launched, and was neither cheaper, prettier, nor more functional than its competitors.
I don't think Apple released any exact sales numbers, but it's safe to assume it was a flop. The iPod Hi-Fi was quietly discontinued about a year and a half after its launch, and there are less than a dozen currently being sold on eBay.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Bluetooth-receiver-for-Apple-1121-so...
I understand why Apple marketing thought it would be cool to wedge your phone in the thing at a 90 degree angle... unfortunately for Apple, normal people look at that, and just think "no."
Nitpick: iPod, not iPhone.
The iPod Hi-Fi was released before the iPhone was even announced, and was discontinued entirely just over a month after the iPhone was released. While I believe it was technically compatible with the iPhone (as both devices used the same dock connector), this clearly wasn't an intended use case.
(And in any case, the early iPhones weren't very good music players - they had very limited storage for music, and streaming services were not available until much later.)