Tell that to tweens and teens. Yes, they are on it, but they don't spend time browsing it. They are social in other apps.
Edit: It is important to note that Facebook has the "identity" aspect down like no other.
Facebook's (et al) business model success is correlated with the amount of time you are under their umbrella.
Snapchat, Vine, and other networks are not under that umbrella, meaning it's still a zero sum game. These companies are competing for your attention, for which there is limited supply.
[1] https://31.media.tumblr.com/106e7e5598f02c6017fb6e146dea465f...
Which is also Facebook.
Then they'll be on Oculus (the OASIS from Ready Player One), also Facebook.
That will continue, Facebook is bigger than just Facebook now.
The Rift looks like a serious misfire. The Vive is already eating its lunch with real VR controllers and roomscale.
I also dont see image conscious teens wearing big honking tissue boxes on their heads. I think FB's foray into VR is in jeopardy. The types of people who want this experience are not really the types of people in love with Facebook or the social media experience.
>That will continue, Facebook is bigger than just Facebook now.
Well, as long as the stock is overvalued, FB can make all sorts of purchases. But that simply won't last. The ROI on its purchases are fairly poor. The second there's major growth bump or income dip, investors are going to start asking tough questions.
Instagram is a big exception to this, Facebook made out like bandits. It was bought for $1b without any revenue and after massive growth and a trip through the Facebook advertising machine it is bringing in cash hand over fist. Current analyst reports peg it at over $3b just this year.
But yea, it will be a while before they earn back the cash for Whatsapp or Oculus.
As for kids, they will be using mobile VR. Think Samsung Gear.
Yes, it's big on your face but it has a big appeal for kids... you can't see your parents while you are wearing it and it allow you to "leave" you small room when you don't have a car yet / have a curfew.
Of course its an issue! You have 6 months of a terrible VR experience without them and then the sticker-shock of buying them when they finally comes out. Perhaps $200 for both. Then you have developers shying away form making games that support these the way the Vive does, so we'll see a lot of half-assed support for games designed primarily for xbox controllers.
If they plotted the growth over time then you would be able to determine if it's a myth or not. In fact, I'm willing to bet that snapchat has gone up and facebook down (y axis) relatively over the last two quarters.
But really, at that point, it's common knowledge. Kids these days are on Instagram and Snapchat. Take a look at this article. It's really light, but it should refresh a bit into how tweens and teens consume social content: http://www.buzzfeed.com/benrosen/how-to-snapchat-like-the-te...
They've already started monetizing and seem to be doing pretty well. The "Discover" channels are pretty expensive and drive a LOT of traffic (Buzzfeed gets 21% of it's views from Snapchat[1]). Additionally, ads are inserted into "live" stories and you can buy extra filters as well. As far as I can tell none of those steps have alienated their userbase. Of course, the teen/tween crowd tends to be pretty fickle, so we'll see if they can pull it off long term.
[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/buzzfeed-gets-21-of-its-traff...
Facebook has and always has been targeted at adults. It was for people post high school. It's for connecting to people not in your immediate geographic vicinity. Facebook was only ever "cool" for kids because the barriers to entry dropped and they could suddenly see what they were barred from. It was always a utilitarian tool that is what you make of it. Follow cool people and groups, its cool. Follow people who share debunked myths, it sucks.
It doesn't really matter where kids are as long as they sign up for facebook when they graduate highschool. The people using snapchat as their primary address book to stay connected to each other, are the people facebook will have a hard time winning over. to them, facebook will always be social network #2.
Zuck made it for himself and it has aged along with him. It's possible people will always sign up for it, but it's also possible that it becomes grandma's photo sharing site.