Does US$2000 per person for the energy to solve the potable water problem for 30 years seem like a lot to you? Compared to the cost of other survival necessities (housing, food, sanitation, heating, cooling —
http://resiliencemaps.org/) it's quite reasonable. 16 m² is also pretty small compared to the space customarily used for housing.
However, I made an error! It turns out I left out the coefficient of performance in my calculations. So it's actually 105 watts, 8 m², and about US$1000:
You have: (8 liters / day) * (41 kJ / mol) / (18 g / mol) * (1 g / cc)
You want: W
* 210.90535
/ 0.0047414634
You have: (8 liters / day) * (41 kJ / mol) / (18 g / mol) * (1 g / cc) / 2
You want: W
* 105.45267
/ 0.0094829268
You have: (8 liters / day) * (41 kJ / mol) / (18 g / mol) * (1 g / cc) / 2 / (13 W / m^2)
You want: m^2
* 8.1117442
/ 0.12327805
My guess of US$1000 for 8 m² is based on my guess that 8 m² is about 8000 watts of solar constant, and at 16% efficiency that's 1280 peak watts, and people quote PV modules as below US$1/watt, which I assume is a peak watt. The actual price right now is about US$0.55/watt, depending on where you are, so a more precise estimate is actually US$700:
You have: 8000 watts * 16% * $ 0.55/watt
You want:
Definition: 704 US$
My friend who's getting those 13 W/m² has her panels in England, though. So that's kind of a worst-case number. You'd need a fraction of that (like, say, 20% or so) in an equatorial desert.
If PV modules return to their previous price trend (they were dropping fairly smoothly by 36% per year in 2010-2013, but have been nearly plateaued since hitting grid parity in much of the world in 2013 and therefore having a hard time with capacity keeping up with demand) then they'd drop by another factor of 4. The Credit Suisse doc posted earlier today to HN https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?sourceid... about how we are now in a "solar manufacturing oversupply" situation suggests that something like that might actually happen. Like what happened to DRAM prices in 1996 after the price-fixing cartel collapsed and they went from $40 a meg to $10 a meg almost overnight.