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Comment by Sam_Odio | Hacker News Reader

The article itself (despite the sensationalist title) is not extremely insightful - investors aren't expecting an auto-manufacturing startup to be cash-flow positive while quickly scaling production.

In addition the content at times even contradicts the title...

"RBC analyst Joseph Spak, who has a $180 price target, said strong initial orders for the Model 3 could help Tesla achieve positive free cash flow"

...

"In February, the company said it expected to be cash-flow positive in March."

A more accurate title might be: "High Model 3 demand poses growth challenges and an increased need for capital."

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> "High Model 3 demand poses growth challenges and an increased need for capital."

which is a good problem to have. Especially for a company with the popularity and positive image of Tesla -- they should have a fairly easy time raising capital from outside investors, if they so desire. It's a challenge, to be sure, but not as difficult as the headline makes it sound.

(After a nearly 3-year hiatus, it's good to have you back on HN.)

Preorders are also not binding. Depending how long it takes, impatient customers or those who need a new car sooner could look at alternatives.

By the time the Model 3 goes into production, it could face stiff competition from several entrants.

The Model 3 might not have a lot of competition today, but it likely will in a few years time and it remains to be seen how many of the preorder customers will stick with their decision if/when other choices are available.

This has always been the most laughable thing for me. Stiff competition.

As if anyone is likely to come up with a car this compelling in the same time frame. Like some mass-produced awesome car is just going to appear out of nowhere. Yes, the big manufacturers have some things like the Bolt in the works. Have you seen it? It's pretty meh. You wouldn't expect any of them to rack up hundreds of thousands of pre-orders before anyone's even gotten their hands on the car in person, non-binding or not.

Yet somehow all these internet analysts seem to think somehow all this incredible passion for the Model 3 will just magically fade away in favor of the exceptionally meh cars released by Chevy and Nissan and others. That's just not how things work. People have waited 12 years for this, you don't think they can wait two more?

I swear to god, even after Tesla is selling 10 million cars per year, you're still going to have people sitting here saying "But can they keep it going? Here comes the Tesla-killer~"

Extreme analogy, I know, but reminds me of Holocaust denialism. Some people are just determined to see past all available evidence to focus on one outcome which suits their personal biases.

I'm sorry you're just coming off as a rabid fanboy.

This is business, there are a number of realistic possibilites and not all are favorable for Tesla.

Holocaust denialism? Join the rest of us in the real world please.

In the real world, I've been listening to people like you predict Tesla's failure for ten million increasingly humorous reasons for 10 years, while I've watched my stock go up twelve times over.

Welcome to the real world.

"Extreme analogy, I know, but reminds me of Holocaust denialism. Some people are just determined to see past all available evidence to focus on one outcome which suits their personal biases."

-very extreme analogy to the say the least, seems someone else here has a strong personal bias to use a crazy analogy.

its great that you believe in a company strongly, but to downright shoot down any other possibility is bias.

personally not ordering model 3 as: -dont want to be driving first iteration

-contrary to your comment, alot can happen in 2 years.

-i dont think they can meet demand, probably 2-3 years realistic

-i will likely be in a comfortable spot (hope) to afford Model S by end of 2017

-too much unknowns for Model 3

A lot can happen in 2 years indeed. Can't wait to see what Tesla and SpaceX have accomplished by then. It's going to be nuts.

I am indeed biased: I focus on available evidence. That's my bias. And all available evidence screams that Elon Musk's companies succeed at the things they set out to accomplish.

I guess it depends on how you define success. Certainly it includes the word, eventually, because it's not ever happening on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd expected by date. The analysts do tend to be conservative but they're also advising on a lot more than $1000 buy-ins, so a lot of their hesitation is completely legitimate "show me the goods". Investing isn't exactly like gambling on chance you know?

Tesla is trying to bring a 70k great car down to 35k. Nissan is trying to bring a 35k meh car up to great.

Both have one of two boxes checked, why is Tesla obviously better a getting their second check?

Because Nissan cannot make a car as great as a Tesla. It's that simple. They are the wrong company. It's not different from Windows Phone trying to play catchup with iOS. It was never going to happen, and everyone knew it.

Tesla has already checked their box. The car is $35k. The price isn't going to magically change. Musk isn't going to be like, "Sorry guys, turns out it's $50k."

Nissan has not checked their box and there is zero reason to think they ever will.

If Tesla can't meet their production schedule, many of those pre-orders will evaporate. Tesla now has to get a huge factory up and running, and then learn to run it cheaply. That's not easy. Fast, cheap, good - pick two. My guess is they'll be a little late with the new cars, they'll be OK, and their manufacturing cost per unit will be higher than expected.

[1] https://www.teslamotors.com/careers/job/project-manager-gen3...

Either they have properly modeled the cost of building a car they claim to be able to sell for $35k, or they are another failed Kickstarter making empty promises.

Given they've already done it with the Roadster, Model S and Model X, I think we have to give them a lot more credit than just another Kickstarter.

I'm pretty sure they know what they're doing, given they made the highest rated vehicle, ever.

They know what they are doing with regard to expensive, luxury, low-production volume vehicles. The question is whether they know how to scale and make money.

It's a tough pivot from a high-cost, high-margin company to a low-cost, low-margin company. HP, SGI, and IBM all failed at it.

Unlike those companies, the low end has been part of the plan since day one.

The problem, as is often the case with stories like TSLA, is that the "investors" are often momentum chasers and unsophisticated. If you doubt it, go read some message boards in Reddit or elsewhere. Very little analysis is actually performed.

What do subscribers on a Reddit subreddit have to do with Tesla investors?

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