Personally, I see Wordpress as a library for implementing Wordpress themes, and it follows that Wordpress themes must be distributed under the terms of the GPL. (Wordpress could easily fix this problem by making themes data, not code. But they didn't implement it this way, which leads one to believe that the authors intended for the themes to be GPL'd.)
Also, it may not be clear at first glance, but the author of this article and several of the commenters are lawyers.
True, and their analysis of the law is very good (well, it sounds good to me, anyway). But their analysis of the software is not so good; I think they decided on my first scenario, even though the code does not support this.