After WikiLeaks Revelation, Greece Asks I.M.F. To Clarify Bailout Plan | Hacker News Reader

After WikiLeaks Revelation, Greece Asks I.M.F. To Clarify Bailout Plan

nytimes.com

119 pointsrandomname218 comments

If you're interested in Greece and how they've been screwed b the ECB, I recommend a video[1] I posted[2] a few days ago. It's a discussion from about a month ago with Mark Blyth (prof econ at Brown) and the former Minister of Finance Yanis Varoufakis. They discuss "negotiating" with the ECB, brexit, and the "least worst" ways to save the EU.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMk6aVsl8Rs#t=66

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11398625

(If you think Greece's economic situation is anything other than a bailout for the major banks of the EU, then you haven't been paying attention)

This is a superb economist, and from what I can tell he lectures widely and is well respected. I happen to agree with his outlook (largely) fwiw. (he's essentially a social democrat)

This is a common leftist propaganda we see here in EU - that others are guilty for Greece's situation, and that poor Greece is a victim of shady capitalists (banks). The reality is somewhat different: they have put themselves in that situation by overspending since mid-70s. Not only that - they have been systematically lying to the world about their financial situation: fist when they were entering the EU and then in 2010 when they "discovered" that they are in a much worst situation than previously reported to the creditors (read the part about Eurostat trying since 2004 to improve reliability of Greece-provided financial figures).

You should read the facts by yourself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis

Also to debunk the biggest lie, the one where Greece's economic situation is basically bailout for EU banks, let me state this facts:

1. In 2011 there was about €46bn in Greece debt held by EU banks (excluding Greece internal banks), of which €9.4bn was held by French and €7.9bn by German banks. By 2015, Germany, France and Italy held roughly €130bn of total €323bn debt. So EU state members lend Greece about 5x the money that their banks had been exposed to in bad Greece debts. Hardly an EU-bank bailout. 2. Also, in 2011 EU states required commercial lenders (including their own commercial banks) to accept a 50% write-off, before they started using taxpayer money to start refinancing and extending loans to Greece.

What really pisses me off is that Greece expects other EU-countries to provide free money to them (by writing off debts or providing well-below-market debt refinancing), while at the same time they only collect half of their tax revenues due. If they only collected the same level of tax revenues as other EU-member states, they would be in no trouble.

> What really pisses me off is that Greece expects other EU-countries to provide free money to them

This is how every functioning federal system works today. Surpluses are recycled from the higher output regions into the lower output regions.

If you're going to reject one biased and oversimplified explanation of complex, multi-faceted situation like the Greek debt crisis -- and replace it with another, equally superficial and misleading one -- then you aren't doing much better than the "leftist propaganda" sources you're trying to scare us into disregarding.

https://wikileaks.org/imf-internal-20160319/

tldr: International organizations refuse to take responsibility for the failure of the measures they imposed, but in the fear of BREXIT in June postpone GREXIT after July. In the mean time every party blames the others, leaking information to the press.

Tsipras' response to the leak:

https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/716400800499679232

Mostly the Greeks take offense to the IMF, per Bloomberg [1], "considering a plan to cause a credit event in Greece and destabilize Europe."

Also: "Acc to #IMF leak, conf call was held March 19, when Velculescu was still in Athens, Hilton Hotel. Makes you wonder if Hilton is bugged." [2]

[1]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-02/imf-discus...

[2] https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/716226465910665216

I really wonder what would have happened if Yannis Varoufakis had had his way and a Greek default had happened last year.

Like I have literally no clue, but some part of me wonders if it would have been better than the drawn out mess that was sure to ensue once bailout was agreed upon.

I think the bigger question to be raised is whether or not spying on all parties involved in diplomatic or fiscal "negotiations" is an activity that the free world should be partaking in

That may be so, but once the cat's out of the bag, there is no putting it back in.

Additionally, it wouldn't bother me to submit political authorities to more stringent standards of transparency regarding the office they hold.

'free world' might imply that such negotiations are in public interest since they affect lots of people and therefore have to be made available to the public, so they are not to be held in secrecy to begin with.

Greece actually wants the IMF to leave, but i'm pretty sure that's not a good idea. Not sure if this "leak" is of any big surprise to anyone.

Can anyone explain to me why it is in the IMF's interest to see Greece, and as a result the EU, collapse? They spread to want to bankrupt Greece, but truly don't understand the logic.

The IMF want to get the countries they work with on a "sustainable" path. This typically involves burning bondholders, writing down loads of debt, and privatizing everything that isn't nailed down.

Because what has happened in the EU is a mish-mash of the euro area governments, the ECB and the IMF, they have not done things the usual way.

Hence, they see that Greece's current debt is unsustainable and want to write down loads of it to allow the economy to grow again.

The Germans fear that doing this would cost them lots of money, and encourage prolifigate behaviour in other states (like Italy and Spain).

Hence, the memo and these fights (which have been going on since before the last bailout).

The IMF does not want to write down Greeces's loans in the least bit. The IMF is normally the first creditor to be repaid and Greece is the only first world nation to miss a payment.

>Meanwhile, missing the IMF payment will cut Greece off from new loans from the organization. http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2015/06/greece_become...

According to the leaked conversation the IMF understands the Greek's will not be able to repay their debt with the current agreement and lack of economic growth. Unfortunately for the IMF the Greeks do not seem likely to accept futher concessions, without an 'ominous event'...

>THOMSEN: But that is not an event. That is not going to cause them to... That discussion can go onfor a long time. And they are just leading them down the road... why are they leading them down the road? Because they are not close to the event, whatever it is.

VELKOULESKOU: I agree that we need an event, but I don't know what that will be. But I think Dijsselbloem is trying not to generate an event, but to jump start this discussion somehow on debt, that essentially is about us being on board or not at the end of the day.

THOMSEN: Yeah, but you know, that discussion of the measures and the discussion of the debt can go on forever, until some high up.. until they hit the July payment or until the leaders decide that we need to come to an agreement. But there is nothing in there that otherwise is going to force a compromise. Right? It is going to go on forever...

VELKOULESKOU: They are not getting close. What is interesting though is that they did give in...they did give a little bit on both the income tax reform and on the.... both on the tax credit and the supplementary pensions. They are doing something but it is very small...

https://wikileaks.org/imf-internal-20160319/transcript/page-...

The IMF is scared of setting a precedent to loan out more bad money when other countries in Europe are soon to face the dilemmas of Greece.

Members of the EU itself have begun to question the IMF's role in the Troika governing the EU, made up of the European Commission, European Central Bank and the IMF.

The Banks are not your friend

i have to say. i actually have some respect for the greek people putting up with the shinanigans tsipras, that clown, is pulling off.

Greece is right, it should follow the steps of Ecuador or Iceland since the debt does not seem to be legit.

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