>take the Monty Hall problem

It amazing how many people still don’t get the Monty Hall problem. Its lesson is that the probabilities do NOT change – until we make a choice!. That’s why it’s better to switch once we see the goat behind door 1. The probability of our having made a good choice, initially (1 in 3), has NOT changed even though there are now only two ‘choices’. But they are not REALLY choices because we’ve ALREADY chosen. The probability can only change if we make a NEW choice, because the ‘probability’ that we’re discussing is the probability that our choice, at the time it was made, would produce a result that we wanted. The iPhone 5 is clearly no less secure now than it was then. But we can switch.