According to NIST, researchers are suggesting that a quantum computer capable of breaking 2048 will be available for less than a billion dollars within the next 15 years:

http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/drafts/nistir-8105/nistir_...

Also relevant is Frederic Jacob's analysis of the NSA's relatively sudden shift towards post-quantum cryptography:

"[It] says that it takes up to 20 years for algorithms to be fully deployed on NSS, and the equipment is often used for 30 years or more. NSA refers to “many experts” that predict a quantum computer capable of effectively breaking public key crypto within that timeframe and that it is important to address that concern."

https://www.fredericjacobs.com/blog/2016/01/27/NSA-QC/

yes.

(as in, the govts know, of course.)