The signal detection thing is just dumb. Signals quickly fall in strength to background noise levels, so you need to broadcast a huge amount of power in a tight beam to overcome that over any significant distance. So basically, you're arguing that just because no ETs have bothered to pour a lot of resources into 1) finding us and learning of our existence, and 2) building a gigantic, power-consuming radio transmitter and directing it at us, that they must not exist.
The probes thing assumes that the ETs actually want to talk to us. That's a pretty huge assumption. We've had civilizations here on Earth which had no desire for outside contact (namely the Chinese during some of their dynasties). What makes you think the ETs are so intent on pouring resources into making artificially-intelligent probes to establish communications?
By that logic, WE don't exist, because we haven't bothered to do these things either.
You're assuming that there aren't other spacefaring civilizations out there who are opposed to these probes, and that don't actively seek them out and destroy them.
You're assuming that the galaxy and nearby vicinity is old enough for one of these civilizations to become this advanced and to build these probes and for one of them to reach us. Who knows, maybe there just aren't that many really old civilizations around yet. Just look at how long it took us to evolve to this point.
For anything more than 10^6 km away and less than 10 metres in size, we just wouldn't see it. We have only just noticed some enormous lumps on Ceres, and it seems a whole planet has evaded detection until now.
I don't think it's particularly likely we will find a vN probe. But to consider their non-detection to be of statistical significance is, I think, an overestimation of our technological capabilities.