Comment by tinbad | Hacker News Reader

Comment by tinbad | Hacker News Reader

I cant believe so many negative (for Tesla), yet sensible comments get down voted. I understand the tech community orgasms with everything that comes out of Elon Musk but, like many have pointed out, the low end luxury market is ultra competitive and has been dominated by the likes of BMW, VAG, Mercedes, Honda, etc for quite some time. These companies haven't just been sitting still in the last decade, and, besides having a century or so head start with actually building mass market high quality products they are also heavily invested in electric drive and other alternatives.

Unlike the markets for model S and X, cars in this segment rely on enormous volume to be successful both product-wise and financially, and, considering what we know about Tesla and how hard it is to mass manufacture such a complex product like a car, it's really questionable whether Tesla will be able to pull this one off. The relative success of the (niche) model S is no indicator here at all.

Unlike some here on HN may think, the automobile industry, especially in this segment, is already a hyper competitive space and the existing OEMs have not only the infrastructure and experience building high quality products that people actually want but also a far bigger war chest to battle it out with. I don't think anyone (including me) is hoping for them to fail but im certain that this will be a pivotal point for the company on whether they'll truly be able to become a mass market manufacturer or stay a niche luxury player they are now.

Did you read the article? The author is specifically discussing cars like the BMW 3 series, which sold 140k units in the US last year. I wouldn't call that anywhere near an 'enormous volume'...

As for all the vaunted experience "building high quality product people actually want"? If 150,000 or so people want an all electric car that's fun to drive and has a 200+ mile range, they'll be buying it from Tesla, not BMW.

The article is flawed with comparing the stats and here's why. The 3 series had a total worldwide production of over 500,000 in 2013 (and growing about 10+% YOY). Producing and selling half a million cars of just ONE model. Or consider this, BMW alone sold 2.2 million vehicles last year, many of which share many parts and components. That's the scale Tesla is up against, not just the 140k 3 series sold in US. Also, BMW sold almost as much of its semi electric cars in 2015 alone as Tesla did in all of its existence.

There are way too many Tesla (and Elon Musk) fanboys in this thread and on HN.

Because BMW, which is already ramping up electrics, and has been selling hybrids for years, is going to twiddle its thumbs for the next 1-3 years while Tesla outsells supposedly absolutely every other manufacturer....?

BMW just announced that their next "i" car will be launched in 2021 or 2022.

Yes, there are a lot of Elon fanboys here, but that's because people have been second guessing him for over a decade, and he's proven every time that he eventually does what he says.

A lot of BMW owners frown on the idea of electric car, which could be a reason why BMW is not so bullish on electric cars.

Tesla and BMW are selling to a completely different audience.

Tesla does one thing very well, and that is to make great electric cars. Unlike BMW, Tesla does not have 30 models and hundreds of trims / power-train options.

Right. That article ignored the single biggest difference - there is no competitor to the Model S in the luxury space, electrics, and very few, if any hybrids.

Go to the entry level luxury ('executive')? Lexus, Acura, even Cadillac all have hybrids, with outright electrics planned over the next year to two (and despite pre-orders being available soon, it's not likely we'll see the 3 before 2017 - and that's only on the west coast; good luck getting an 3 in PA before 2019 - and as soon as you do see a firm delivery date, all those other manufacturers now have a concrete target to aim at).

It's not all a matter of "well, the S sold well, so the 3 will conquer."

Not even close.

> Go to the entry level luxury ('executive')? Lexus, Acura, even Cadillac all have hybrids, with outright electrics planned over the next year to two

But they all lack the coolness factor. Even for entry level luxury that is needed. I am sure they will all have electrics at some point, but in that market it will be a "me too" thing. And those that want the real thing will want a Tesla. For luxury market brands are everything, and Tesla has that.

Others to compete will have to offer something unique -- self driving, much longer range, and so on to be noticed.

BMW, Mercedes, etc, don't have the cool factor for the entry luxury market? They own that factor right now, and already have hybrids, and could add outright electrics if that's what the market starts wanting. What would cause them to instantly lose the cool factor just because Tesla enters the market?

I have a couple of coworkers with Teslas. I have far more with cars in the same market range that come from Porsche or Alfa or BMW or Mercedes or...

But it is not Tesla.

Tesla is something parallel (so maybe someone into Mercedes or Cadilac will not like Tesla and would not see the point). Let's say I wanted to buy an electric car. Even if BMW or Cadilac had more features, longer battery life, and even cost less. I would not buy it, and would rather spend more but get a Tesla.

Also, to illustrate my point, imagine when you are a kid perhaps and you want legos. But your parents buy you knock-offs. Functionally they are the same, you can build stuff from both, but emotionally it is not the same.

I'm preaching to the choir, but the problem with other manufacturers, and why I would never consider a Bolt, is it's got a 0-60 time over 5.5 and it looks like crap. To me, it's a 3 series with a way better user experience.

For now, you may be right. But "cool" is a fickle thing. DeLoreans were cool too.

"It's not Tesla" is probably a good thing. The build quality and comfort inside the car is shockingly bad for something that has such a high price tag. Plasticy finishes, sub-par seating - let's fact it, the only thing it has going is a widescreen display mounted in the centre of the console and serious acceleration and range. But the inside of the Tesla is a joke in the luxury market.

I live in a high-end condo (not in the Bay area), and in a building of 400 units there are 5 Teslas on the first 3 floors of parking (8 floors total).

Not to mention, everyone I know with a Tesla is only considering Tesla for their next car.

That's pretty subjective. Especially for someone who just upgraded from an Altima to an Audi, not in part because of my partner's insistence that it was the coolest of options (and she has test driven an S - which is not to imply that the two are comparable, only that she is not particularly ignorant on the subject).

True, although you can say that (maybe indirectly) the model S is competing with the likes of S-class, LS, A7/A8, 7er, etc. and compared with those it hasn't done extremely well. It has done well yes, but it had the novelty/coolness factor going for it. Let's see how it compares 2 or 3 models from now. My guess is it will have a hard time keeping the novelty (and thus the sales), especially, like you mentioned, when others will catch up on the electric cool(if they haven't already).

> it had the novelty/coolness factor going for it

Yes. I think there is almost a parellel market for. If I had $100k+ to throw for a car, I would not buy a Mercedes, BMW or Cadilac. I would still be driving a Honda Civic. But I would buy a Tesla.

True, I know a few (here in SV, where else? ;) who went from a Prius to a Tesla.

I really recommend reading the article. I was surprised how small the quantities in this segment of the market is. Given that they're selling 50-80k cars a year at the moment, competing in a segment where the average car sells 45k units/year doesn't sound like a different game at all.

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