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Comment by fweespee_ch | Hacker News Reader

The problem with the low end "Luxury" market being compared to the "Lol, screw the rules I have money" market is simply one is grounded in the mass market realities while the latter is not.

I know a couple people in the former category who own multiple cars that cost 6 figures. They'd buy a Tesla just because they want one without cost considerations. They also have a Ferrari, a Porsche, etc. Pretty much any iconic brand of luxury car they have at least 1.

The low end luxury market are engineers, doctors, etc. and they will seriously consider buying a minivan or a SUV or whatever instead. It is a completely different market and one that [frankly] is just as likely to dip into brands like the Prius hybrid.

I'm sure Tesla will get sales but imagining some sort of dominance is silly.

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> The low end luxury market are engineers, doctors, etc. and they will seriously consider buying a minivan or a SUV or whatever instead.

I would say this is a big "it depends". I think I'm in that low-end luxury market. I paid 36k for my car, when all is said and done. I absolutely did not consider minivans or SUVs, and for one really big reason: I don't have kids. Kids aren't even on the horizon. When I look at minivans and SUVs, I think of mobiles that, while great people movers are, generally, not very fun cars to drive (there are some amazing Mazdas and Acuras in this collection, though).

I bought a Subaru WRX, because I like the way it feels; but, I am VERY excited about this new Tesla, and I completely believe that the next car I purchase, bar getting a huge amount of money that I can choose to not be practical with, is going to be an electric card, and is also probably going to be a Tesla.

I have a friend who owns a 90k Infiniti. He prefers luxury more than I do; but, he's 100% on the Tesla bandwagon and is very excited at the prospect of owning one. He'll be one of the first in line when they announce the price.

I have another friend, similar market. He owns an Audi ... A5? S5?

Barring my infiniti-owning friend, we are people that like cars and want a little extra. We definitely do exist, and I suspect many of us will be looking very intently at that Tesla.

> Barring my infiniti-owning friend, we are people that like cars and want a little extra. We definitely do exist, and I suspect many of us will be looking very intently at that Tesla.

Yes but is there 175k every year such as the article implies? I'm skeptical.

I can believe there is going to be 100k in sales but that isn't a market dominating product. I could even see it hitting 200k that first year due to pent up demand but it won't sustain it.

I don't know. I wrote up a longer comment; but, when I was typing it up, I realized that I don't know, I don't even have the beginning of an idea.

I think the BMW 3-series will hold it's buyers pretty well, though. There's just something, especially in the tech community, about owning a BMW 3-series. They might as well be the Toyota Corolla of some parking lots I've seen.

> I don't know. I wrote up a longer comment; but, when I was typing it up, I realized that I don't know, I don't even have the beginning of an idea.

That is all I was trying to say really. The article doesn't know either and you can't extrapolate markets like that.

>I absolutely did not consider minivans or SUVs, and for one really big reason

Minivans and SUVs are also handy if you do outdoor activities involving a lot of gear--including boats, etc. that go on the roof. A number of paddling friends I know actually consider minivans more practical than SUVs for this purpose.

Of course, said activities also often involve going to places where electric cars aren't practical--even if they didn't have gull-wing doors that preclude roofracks.

That said, I also have a small second vehicle. But then I paid $18K for it in 1998 or so and it's still going strong at 170K miles. (Honda Del Sol.)

Let's face it - most _garages_ these day preclude gull wing doors.

Putting a boat on the roof of a vehicle is dumb: it really kills your fuel efficiency. You can get a small trailer to put the boat on instead, and then you can get a small car with a trailer hitch to pull it (if the boat is light enough to put on the roof of a minivan, it's probably a kayak and weighs very little), which means you don't need a big, ugly, gas-guzzling minivan or SUV at all. Any small car can pull a 500-pound utility trailer.

To each his own. I do know people who use trailers for sea kayaks and it can be quite a pain getting into tight quarters. So putting boats on the roof may be dumb but it's what 98% of the people I know with boats do.

> I'm sure Tesla will get sales but imagining some sort of dominance is silly.

People said the same thing about the S. And now we have a car that's going to be $28k after tax rebate, before add-ons. Idk about you but I know a very large number of people who are willing to spend more than they ought to on a car they can only narrowly afford just because.

Tesla is the height of cool in the car industry at the moment. If people will buy a brand new ~$20-25k generic car, you don't think they'll spend a few thousand extra to get the hot new thing, the 2017 car version of what the iPhone was in 2007? Especially when it means no more paying for gas, and having autopilot?

> People said the same thing about the S.

I didn't.

> Tesla is the height of cool in the car industry at the moment. If people will buy a brand new ~$20-25k generic car, you don't think they'll spend a few thousand extra to get the hot new thing, the 2017 car version of what the iPhone was in 2007? Especially when it means no more paying for gas, and having autopilot?

1) I said it won't be market dominant beyond the first year, at most.

2) It'll have very limited self-driving features, that isn't the same thing as autopilot.

> People said the same thing about the S. And now we have a car that's going to be $28k after tax rebate, before add-ons. Idk about you but I know a very large number of people who are willing to spend more than they ought to on a car they can only narrowly afford just because.

I'm genuinely amused how quick you are to defend the fact people exist rather than trying to provide any kind of evidence they exist in such massive quantities.

> It'll have very limited self-driving features, that isn't the same thing as autopilot.

Do you have a source for this? Because everything I've read to date on the Model 3 indicates that it will have Autopilot.

Although, like the Model S/X, you will probably have to pay for the features to be enabled (the hardware is still present).

You have to define your terms. To the degree that autopilot = adaptive cruise control/lane keeping on highways, sure. But no one's claiming door-to-door dispatch and delivery anytime soon.

I'm clearly referring to the system that Tesla calls Autopilot.

This is not a Level 4 Autonomous car[1], as they've made clear repeatedly and why they use the term Autopilot.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Classification

How Tesla defines autopilot isn't how I would define it. It is why I use the lowercase version of the word rather than a pronoun.

A level 3 or 4 autonomous car is a true autopilot.

Tesla is level 2.

The reason Tesla used the word 'autopilot' is because the system is much like the behaviour of autopilot systems in Aircraft - they can handle throttle and navigation, and if you set it up right and in the right conditions/environment, it can land itself.

The Pilot is always required to monitor the systems and be able to take control - so the analogy to a Level 2 autonomy car system like Tesla's Autopilot is quite correct.

Anyway, my point is if you keep talking about Tesla's lack of autopilot - regardless of the case - you're going to just confuse most people, because clearly they do have that.

If you want to refer to Level 4 systems, perhaps 'driverless' or 'self driving' are better terms to use.

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