RSA-2048 is definitely in "common use."
RSA-2048 is definitely in "common use."
RSA-2048 will be the small arms equivalent of a musket in 2040. Since the US government controls so much of the global brainpower for crypto, that's not a standard that is acceptable.
I am not saying that they won't be able to pwn you; just that they won't do so by directly cracking 2k+ RSA.
Even if RSA-2048 is secure in 25 years, it will almost certainly not be in the same place in it's lifecycle. Even today, NSA guidance recommends RSA-3072, or RSA-2048 with an accelerated migration to Quantum-resistant crypto in the future. (https://www.nsa.gov/ia/programs/suiteb_cryptography)
My fear is that there won't be an "AES 2", and the commercial/individual world will return to a place where we don't have access to quality, trustworthy crypto for communications and commerce. Without security, there is no trust, and without trust many of the advances in productivity and and collaboration that we've gained in the last 20 years will be substantially weakened.