Venezuela to Shut Down for a Week to Cope With Electricity Crisis
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
The company rushed to get every American out of the country before the military showed up and seized control of the factory.
But as it turns out, making glass is hard and requires constant tuning and adjustment. None of the new Venezuelan managers had the expertise needed to continue glass production at anywhere close to the same levels of efficiency and quality. Thus the factory started to lose its ability to produce glass bottles at all.
I can imagine a similar lead-up to this in Venezuela's power industry. Nationalization -> loss of expertise -> loss of efficiency -> national crisis.
I've noticed shareholders are more aligned with letting heads roll than politicians and voters unless it hits extremes. Most corporations would nip it in the bud early or die trying.
But what is happening here is because of massive corruption at every level of the government. They only nationalized one of the power companies (Electricidad de Caracas, only deals with power in the capital).
The rest simply succumbed to corruption. Companies with ties to the military and government officials that sold a bunch of overpriced, refurbished power plants that don't work. The price per MW of the power plants built here is the highest in the world.
I know because I used to work for a small Power Protection Systems contractor and we saw this from the inside. That and the reduction of the morale of even the lowest employee that saw the destruction and corruption from the inside.
You have never spent much time in the former Soviet Union have you?
The Soviet Union could only survive because of its reliance on natural resources. They could not export exept to people they keeped under millitary controll and all of those tried to get western stuff if they could.
The Soviets themself always imported lots of tech from the west, with the exeption of select industries like space they were behind. Read:
- Western Technology and Soviet Economic Development 1917–1930 (1968) - Western Technology and Soviet Economic Development 1930–1945 (1971) - Western Technology and Soviet Economic Development 1945–1965 (1973)
Internally the Soviet economy never functioned as claimed. The only reason it could survive at all is because illegal market makers would travel around and exchange resources between different factories.
Edit: In for a penny, I suppose: why is this getting downvoted? I don't think "why is this getting downvoted" is a controversial question.
The article indicates that Zimbabwe went from being an exporter of food to requiring food aid to prevent starvation.
Zimbabwe just recently took over all diamond mines. Which sounds sorta OK in theory, but I can only imagine it's going to result in less official output and more corruption. Seems like they'd be better just insisting on very high fees.
The state relies on hydro-electric power, and last year sold off a lot of its "excess" power to Victoria via the Basslink cable at a huge profit.
However we're suffering a fairly bad drought, and the dams are at historically low levels. Worse still, the Basslink cable (which allows the state to both export and import electricity) failed on December 20th 2015, and the repair ship has been unable as yet to actually locate the fault in the cable (it's a 270km long under-sea cable)
Apparently the repair ship costs are running @ $100,000 per day, and it could take months.
On Friday they severed the cable in order to begin testing to locate the fault, and half of Tasmania's internet went down. I was unlucky enough to be with one of the ISPs who didn't provision enough backhaul connectivity on the other network cables, so my 100mbit fibre internet now looks something like a 1998 dialup connection
malby@peep:~$ wget ftp://ftp.iinet.net.au/test10MB.dat
--2016-03-14 16:07:41-- ftp://ftp.iinet.net.au/test10MB.dat => `test10MB.dat'
Resolving ftp.iinet.net.au (ftp.iinet.net.au)... 203.0.178.32
Connecting to ftp.iinet.net.au (ftp.iinet.net.au)|203.0.178.32|:21... connected. Logging in as anonymous ... Logged in!
==> SYST ... done. ==> PWD ... done.
==> TYPE I ... done. ==> CWD not needed.
==> SIZE test10MB.dat ... 10000000
==> PASV ... done. ==> RETR test10MB.dat ... done.
Length: 10000000 (9.5M) (unauthoritative)
100%[===============================================================================>] 10,000,000 6.82K/s in 43m 41s
2016-03-14 16:51:24 (3.73 KB/s) - `test10MB.dat' saved [10000000]
I mean, I feel bad complaining about my internet speeds, because in 6 months times if there hasn't been any rain.. well, it's going to get a lot more serious.
The developments makes me feel somewhat uneasy since NZ is highly reliant on hydroelectric power and we have been shutting down thermal plants because they are no longer required. Whilst there is excess capacity now we have had problems during the droughts in 2004 so the risk of another shortage is real.
Also, why is the internet affected? Is the communications cable laid next to the HVDC cable?
I feel very sorry for you people down there. There's really no other way to route traffic that has enough capacity for the whole state. It's a great/terrible example of the part of the National Broadband Network that no one talks about - Australia simply doesn't have enough backhaul because we're so far away from everywhere.
Just for comparison:
Berlin is at lattitude 52°31′N.
Marseille is at lattitude 43°18′N.
Hobart is at lattitude 42°53′S.
So Tasmania is more similar to southern Europe in levels of insolation. Not as great as mainland Australia, which has some of the best insolation levels in the world, but still not too bad.
And yes, Tasmania also has great wind resources.
http://www.wattclarity.com.au/2016/03/some-thoughts-on-the-s...
WTF dude, if you need any large downloads let me know - I'm sure it'll arrive faster by mail boat :P
Does anybody live 'off the grid' where you live? What are your options for self-generating electricity, like solar or wind? Definitely a wake up call to me here in Canada. I'd be lost without electricity!
Best of luck, and I'm hoping the rain comes soon!
Shouldn't this be handled by the NBN? I thought fibre was supposed to be run by NBNco so we wouldn't have to deal with these issues ever again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_electricity_crisis
Strange times.
Preventing utilities from hedging... how could that ever work?
I had a gas bill of well over $350 one month for just water heating and furnace... and my thermostat was never over 62F, and on only 10 hours a day. (For local climate perspective, this is with an average overnight temperature never below freezing... it's not like the furnace was fighting blizzards.)
The Enron story was a great one ( even senior management could not control those traders ) but ... context. And I knew a couple guys from MCI. who had been absorbed by Enron and they weren't a part of that at all.
[1] http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/149949/power-cuts-i...
It's caused by too many plants being poorly-maintained and breaking down and insufficient investment in new power plants caused by corruption and incompetence. In other words, not regular localised reductions or transfers of load, but the same wide scale forced blackouts as being discussed elsewhere in this thread.
There has, thankfully, been no load shedding over the past few months, but only because the economy has slowed down sufficiently that the country's electricity demand has dropped below its regular levels.
Does the same happen in South Africa?
The pattern is simular, unstable supply leads to private infrastructure. Demand increases when supply is available, leading to more instablilty. Quality goes down because private infrastructure is usually second rate.
In egypt water quality is way down because of private storage in water tanks.
I have reason to be pessimistic about Macri's policies.
Compared to Kirchner's administration, Macri's waaaay better.
This is a sample of Kirchner's gov:
http://www.eltrecetv.com.ar/telenoche/impactante-video-el-hi...
You can see in the video, the son and the accountant of a major contractor from Kirchner's Administration. They're counting corruption money, and drinking a scotch to celebrate afterwards. Looks like a hollywood script. Reality surpasses fiction.
Complainers are usually Kirchner "fans" that can't stand that people were fed up with her and kicked her out
It's their strategy
I assume you meant her party was kicked out. Since 49% of voters voted for this party, and Macri's (somewhat fragmented) coalition only won on ballotage, I'd say it was a pretty close call... and now the country is highly divided.
Regardless, the political left doesn't like either Kirchner or Macri, and their criticisms are valid.
Alleged contractors corruption cases are a serious deal which should be investigated, no-one is denying that, but I don't think corruption alone is all that matters in a country. I'm more worried about disastrous policies. A perfectly honest politician can lead a country to ruin, and many of us don't think Macri is clean in any case.
Like the US, Argentina's decision to pay its debts will enable the country to borrow, which is useful if you want to invest in stuff which will improve your economy.
This isn't about regular creditors, but about vulture funds, sovereign debt, ruining countries, and the never-ending cycle of incurring even more debt to pay for existing debt.
Many were naturally for paying what was due to soldiers, and against paying off the speculators who were "preying" on the situation. By paying it all off, Alexander Hamilton demonstrated the (a) the US would make good on its debts and (b) US debts can be can be liquidated bought and sold freely without exception.
Both of these points make it easier for a country to obtain new finances on demand at lower cost. Point (a) means the lender can be assured the country will not disown the loan. Point (b) because debt which can be freely sold gives the lender much more flexibility.
[1] http://www.historycentral.com/NN/economic/Hamiltontorescue.h...
However, am I right in thinking that, along with incurring new debt, Hamilton also recommended additional policies, such as taxation and protection of the industry? These are points of criticism of Argentina's new government: relaxation of import restrictions, and decreasing taxation of businesses and of exports from the wealthy agricultural sector.
But yes, there are debits that are impossible to pay back. Argentina is too big to get one of those in 90 days, but you may be in that hole - it depends on the details.
Also I'll disagree. Corruption is the single most important issue on LATAM today. It's the root of nearly all of our problems.
> Brazil also surrendered to vulture funds at the 90's, and paid it back with things running very smoothly
What was the impact of those policies on the population, especially on the poor? Honest question, this isn't a trick question -- in fact, I'll be honest and say my assumption is that neoliberal policies in Latin America hurt the poor and create the ground for the rise of so-called populist governments. With Brasil this theory of mine is made less clear by the fact that, if I'm not mistaken, Lula's PT continued many of the policies of Cardoso... I remember being very confused about that!
I don't have much idea if the net result of renegotiating the external debit was positive or negative. It was mostly a non-event, it is hard to find any impact anywhere. I imagine the magnitude varies with the actual debit size, and at the end of the day, our wasn't that big - despite politicians focusing their discourse on it for a generation.
Anyway, to the extent that it has any meaning, "neoliberalism" also includes focusing on extractivist industries. We didn't practice that part.
Also, there was some effort into fighting corruption and institutionalizing policy. I'd classify it on the poverty reducing side of the balance, so that it murks a bit the effects of monetary stabilization. But then, poverty continued to reduce even late at Lula's government, so I must conclude that the stabilization was more important than this fighting (that wasn't as big as what is happening now).
About the raise of PT, it happened in a period of worldwide economical crisis, and our economy took a hit. The party got very lucky that the world economy recovered fast, and got into a big period of growth, that only ended in 2008.
If it's primarily the bond deal, I would be sympathetic to the argument that Macri is just being honest and having the country take responsibility for the debts racked up by his predecessors. Another good sign is how he's cleaned up the government statistics office that Fernandez was using to publish ginned up economic indicators to make herself look better (which wasn't fooling anybody outside the country; I don't know how widely they were believed domestically). These sorts of moves pay off in the long term by restoring the goodwill of the international community and giving the government more room to maneuver. The fact that he's making them now, when they make his job more difficult in the short term, suggests a profound professional integrity that inclines me to think of him as a statesman.
Am I misreading your objection here? If so, I'd like to know more about your take on things. (Or maybe you could point me to some sources I could read?)
Let's not forget kirchnerismo (the party ousted by Macri) arose from the ashes of De la Rua's government, which was fiscally conservative and "orthodox", and who few would accuse of being populist. His reign ended in the 2001 chaos, with economic upheaval, a collapse of the banking system, a few deaths and the goddamn president flying away in a helicopter! Kirchnerismo didn't even exist back then.
EDIT: thanks for the replies everyone. sadness.
No, it wouldn't help. This crisis is not caused by lack of resources. It is caused by corruption, cronyism, patronage and, above anything else, gigantic incompetence.
If "first world countries" give some help it will probably only benefit the corrupt officials.
So I think its wrong to say "above anything else, gigantic incompetence", its more like "above anything else, bad insentives".
Our problem is rampant corruption, populism and mismanagement derived from it.
Brazil is trying to get out. Argentina is out of it, lets hope is not too late. For Venezuela is already too late.
The causes for the problems in Latin America are complex, there is no single root cause that can be easily explained in an Internet forum, and keep in mind many of these countries -- well, I can at least speak for Argentina -- were historically owned and managed by decidedly non populist landowners which influenced the following generations of leaders (and some of these families still own portions of the country). So if populism was a reaction to conservatism and prior authoritarian governments, it cannot (alone) be the root cause of our problems.
Sure, corruption is a problem as well, but I think that alone it doesn't explain our problems either.
I think corruption and populism are more symptoms than causes.
In just three years, their inflation (the bolivar has lost 97% of its value) and economic contraction has taken their GDP per capita from ~$14,000 to ~$4,000. They've lost at least 70% of their economy, and it's not over yet.
Saudi Arabia's economic output is nearly five times greater per capita. Their median income and median household net wealth are both vastly higher than Venezuela. Saudi Arabia still has substantial capital reserves, while Venezuela has almost none.
Venezuela now has a $20 monthly minimum wage. [1] Most of the nation is struggling to afford food.
Saudi and Venezuela couldn't be any more different outside of being petro states.
[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-06/monthly-sa...
When isn't that true sadly.
> No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time
Churchill quoting one of his predecessors in his autobiography "Churchill by Himself".
The government can blame El Niño all you want, but they can't hide the fact that they stole most of the money that was invested in non-working power plants all over the country. I worked in 3 of those (one from Derwick, see below) and saw power plants from 1995 that were sold as new at 3x the price of a NEW power plant.
One of the companies is called Derwick. Run by some guys with ties to the government, some as young as 23 years old, with ZERO experience in the field. They are all now multi-millionaires.
You can read more here: http://infodio.com/021014/how/to/steal/70/million/one/day/de...
http://infodio.com/030813/jose/aguilar/derwick/associates/bi...
http://www.infodio.com is a site that tracks a lot of corruption cases. It is of course, blocked in Venezuela.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derwick_Associates
http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelan-energy-company-derwic...
https://cryptome.org/2015/06/ve-us-corruption.htm
More on the power crisis in general:
http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/160227/nation...
I can go on and on about this. But this basically boils down to massive, massive corruption that has penetrated Venezuela at every level.
Where I live, we've already had blackouts 2-3 times a week. Once this problem hits Caracas, the capital, we know things are going to get bad. The government has done everything possible to keep things normal there but they might not be able to for much longer.
It seems there are active in Venezuela: http://transparencia.org.ve/
I just discover them a few days ago, I don't know more.
I believe they'll be alright though. The one family I know owns a farm on the side of a mountain, so plenty of food, and they get fresh water from a mountain stream, so no worries there. They use a bit of electricity, but don't really need it to live.
The other one, the husband is a US citizen who does some occasional work online. He needs electricity, but he's told me before that he can get by on ~$130 a month, so he should be fine for a week.
It's hard to be a determined leftist nowadays. I moved off long ago. If you want better standards of living for people, it's high trust capitalism that's going to do it.
Probably, people will start using the portable power generators that everybody already have, because this is not the first time the power goes out, and it will become a gas-powered country for a week.
[1] http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=334115&CategoryId=...
[2] http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014241278873240007045783867...
[3] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/18/venezuela-presi...
There was an election to the National Assembly that the opposition won, but they did not have anything to do with the rise in gas prices.
Unfortunately not all countries are as intelligent as Norway.
Actually in Venezuela every power plant ends in disaster but disasters in nuclear plants have much more severe consequences.
And hydro power they have today is not reliable. So they would need to use coal or natural gas. And both of these pollute compared to nuclear.
This is of course, ignoring the risks that the government claiming that they will take over the nuclear plant and put a high school dropout in charge.
What are you, a capitalist? That won't work in Venezuela's current political climate.
So for your solution to work the government would have to remove itself, and they want.
I'm a huge fan of nuclear power, but I do tend to think it would be a bad idea in an unstable country.
And take the risk of being "nationalized" by the state.
He has the chops.
What's even funnier, though, is seeing real life unfold in front of my eyes that matches it, almost so perfectly that you'd think the politicians were following it as a script!
It was staggering how perfectly the first third matches our current socioeconomic conditions, with the only difference in trajectory being the story having the productive rich bail out of society specifically to crash the "looters"' plans.
Not to say that she did not have some good observations on some of the things she was against. Her modern followers by and inlarge horrible idiots that I don't want to be associated with.
https://www.vice.com/read/atlas-mugged-922-v21n10
The eagerness of a different (but overlapping) libertarian cabal to court favor with the notoriously corrupt (and murderous) regime in Honduras to build their own version of paradise on the northern coast of that country (at the expense of the local Garífuna community) is also quite telling.
Her legacy would seem to cut both ways, we might say.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism
Of course radical libertarianism and authoritarian socialism, while both pipe dreams, are basically apples and oranges to one another, and can't be compared side by side.
But the point about the smaller-scale fiascos in Chile and Honduras is that it shows how farcical (and corrupt) that ideology can be whenever people do try to incarnate it in its purest form, out there in the real, actual world. This coming from people who claim to know vastly better about reinventing the world from the ground up.
"Glass houses, throwing stones", and all that.
Which is where the body counts, ecological toll and general misery -- domestic and exported -- of the two allegedly opposite systems tend to even out to a far greater degree.
I just don't think that being "horrified" at the excesses of only one extreme on the ideological spectrum -- whilst remaining indifferent (or willfully oblivious) to the skeletons in one's own ideological basement -- makes for a particularly useful or instructive view of the world.
At some point in time you have to deal with the reality that there isn't equivocation. I know some people have hard times dealing with it, and thus always pull the trick of "but look over here at this". It just doesn't work, but people don't seem to understand that it doesn't work.
But the opposite, shrugging one's shoulders in the face of the explicit, obvious failure of a mode of governance and saying "well, who are we to judge really, these other guys did something bad once too," has its own faults. Namely, if we can't point at how Chavismo has played out so disastrously in Venezuela without getting uselessly entangled in whataboutery, what rhetorical tools do we have left to use the next time a charismatic socialist with an authoritarian streak starts getting close to political power in a democracy?
(Any comparison with the current political situation in a large nation whose name rhymes with "Bunited Bates of Bamerica" is, of course, left as an exercise for the reader.)
The word I would use is Socialism. They are of course related.
If one prefers to believe that any particular -ism has some kind of a corner on the corruption market, as it were... well, that must be a nice, simple, orderly world they get to live in.
I can agree with "large-scale human endeavors" being where it thrives the easiest.
Also, even if everyone does as honest work as they can, the coordination problems in a gigantic top-down organization like this would doom it on its own.
Venal is more related to corruption as there are independent of any economic and politic systems, even the troll ones.
I hate getting down in the weeds on this, but its "not considered socialism" by those on the left who are embarrassed that the Nazis were pretty much a command economy and have socialism in its name.
I wouldn't pay much attention to the name of the Nazi Party, either. After all, North Korea is a "democratic" republic, it says so right in their name!
The understanding I've developed of socialism is of worker ownership of the means of production. The state at best can only claim to somehow speak for the workers in a top down manner, and I think that inevitably fails. (Which is not to say I'm advocating it here in a decentralized form but I'm much more sympathetic)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy
As you probably know, communism usually starts out as a mass-movement of ordinary people.
I don't think Trump is a murderous totalitarian (though I guess he could be), but fascism is actually an accurate label for his political ideas. He doesn't have a problem with state authority, he just thinks he could do it better, and would encourage nationalist social upheaval instead of SJW social upheaval. This is why the conservative movement hates him.
This is history that is mostly ignored or simply pased out of memory. Their was a version of socialism that was called 'Prussian Socialism' and the thinkers from this area had quite a bit of influence on the later devlopment of facism.
Many facists like mussolini were socialist that were pissed of by the socialist party. Hitler took a party with socialist elements and retracked it so that the socalist parts were neglected.
If you look at the original 23 points of the Nazi party, they look fairly simlular to many moderet socialist parties of the time.
The first chapter of Hayek 'The Road to Freedom' is an exploration of the history of thought. It was originally be intended to be part of a book on the subject (The Use and Abuse of Reason Part 1) but he had to no time and so he released it as a more populist book. Sadly this chapter did not get the attention needed and was removed in the version that became a best seller in the US (Readers Digest Version).
If you only associate corruption with socialism, that seems like an uninformed view of the world.
https://assets.weforum.org/editor/cYHll0JXGc8zJzpkmvOPzcTTjI...
Top 10, at least 5 are socialist (I make it 8, Singapore and Switzerland aren't).
Of course this is a perception study but I'd argue broadly accurate based on other metrics.
This "socialism bad, laissez fair capitalism good" thing gets old and largely seems to be a misunderstanding that Socialism != Communism.
It is unfortunate that political terminology is muddy enough to allow for this sort of confusion. If I think these 10 countries are capitalist and you think 8 of them are socialist, what is the likelihood of us having a useful conversation discussing capitalism and socialism?
A lot of people who cheer for socialism believe capitalism, in the sense of private property in the means of production, is a problem and should be abolished. Others, like yourself, are advocating fundamentally capitalist states with extensive welfare programs like Denmark or Sweden.
Unfortunately, the word socialism is used in both senses quite commonly, and it isn't always easy to tell the intent from the word.
(Also, I think sometimes the advocates of socialism aren't very clear on what they mean themselves. Which is unfortunate, as the difference between the two meanings is enormous.)
To be fair, it isn't just fans of socialism who perpetuate this. It does not help when right wingers insist on calling Obama a socialist.
Since the fraction of internet socialists who would actually like to try Marxist totalitarianism one more time is fairly sizable, I tend to assume the worst when I see people choosing that word for themselves.
I will say, if you care about distancing yourself from the totalitarian socialists, but you still like the sound of "socialism", making sure to describe yourself a "democratic socialist" does get the idea across. It's not my favorite term but at least it does suggest Sweden rather than Maoist China.
Their are some words that have many meanings, when you want to use those, you should provide the appropirate addition to communicat your idea.
The Nordic countries are pretty damn socialist.
Sweden and Denmark are probably more free market than the US.
They do have high taxes and extensive welfare systems.
Their are two well known economic freedom rankings.
- http://www.freetheworld.com/ (stupid URL, everybody knows) - http://www.heritage.org/index/
Check out the interactive map: http://www.heritage.org/index/heatmap
The US and Denmark are not for of from each other. The just get subtracted points for different things. Denmark actually had lots of 'neoliberal' reforms, but because it was done by a left government instead of a right one its not commonly mentioned. Sweden has been going in that direction since the 90s as well.
Interestingly I see some Venezuelans are turning to bitcoin against the the wishes of their government.
So what Venezuela does is straight out of the socialist revolutionary book.
Obviously, the politics didn't help.
Edit: who the hell actually downvotes without a response?
Recently, schools were hoarded under onem administrative body whp issues paper, chaulk, replacement chairs and everything. Even pays the gas bills on account of the schools. Guess what, schools have been shutting down because of unpaid bills and gas being cut in the middle of winter.
Whoever can find a job away from the country does and most never return. IT companies struggle to find good people because most there is now are tumblr dwelling mediocrity.
Same thing everywhere.