Trump presidency rated among top 10 global risks: EIU
bbc.com
bbc.com
This is something that the media have completely failed to address.
Take something like illegal immigrants.
You don't find a single politician in the US or in Europe for that matter who would ever say that they are ok with illegal immigrant. There is more or less complete political consensus around this subject yet Trump managed through rhetorics to make it look like there is deep political disagreement, simply by saying he wants to build a wall and make the Mexican government pay for it.
Everyone from left to right fell for it but when you look at it Trumps political are actually quite moderate.
Fundamentally he is for gay marriage, for legalization of some drugs, he isn't very religious, his taxation politics are fundamentally to lower taxes for small businesses but remove deductions, he is fundamentally in agreement with most of Affordable Healthcare Act (especially the part about preexisting conditions which is one of the most important parts of it) and he is a business man who basically need the common man to do well so that many of his enterprises can do well, hardly someone who wants to go to war. He is also against the trade agreements. Which is hurtigt average americans who don't get to benefit from globalization.
The real crime here is that the media haven't called his bluff and instead of giving us proper analysis they gave us the juicy headlines that he is in almost infinite supply of. Because that is what sells.
Trump rhetoric is vulgar and over the top but he is talking to a bunch of people who have never been heard and who have never felt like they had a voice. Trump give them that voice and thats why he is popular.
If he ever became president he would most likely only be running for 4 years because he would basically not do any of the things he's been talking about.
A real populist for sure but a global risk he isn't.
And provided he doesn't do his mass-deportation (which I think is an empty threat), there is nothing about him that is so extreme, except for his delivery.
"repeal and replace X" - he will replace X with almost the same exact thing
"build a wall" - there is nothing so crazy about a sovereign nation having a border
"not letting in refugees until we figure out what the hell is going on" - both sides have reasonable opinions in this one, but I guarantee plenty of those under the Merkelreich wish she had been closer to Trump here.
"blow the * out of ISIS" - we completely sat on our hands as children were crucified and buried alive. Our half-assed support for the ballsy Kurds was disgusting as they fought bunker-hill style. I understand we don't want to spend more time in the middle-east, but this definitely falls under you-break-it-you-bought-it.
"the Iran deal is the worst yada yada" - well any deal that doesn't get back hostages and lets them fire test rockets with "death to israel" written on them isn't the best deal out there.
So it's been fun, and I had no idea he was this skilled at political theater.
* liberal in terms of pro-choice, legalization, marriage-equality etc., but not a fan of the far-left direction things are moving in a la diblasio & co.
A real populist with an access to all sorts of red buttons (military, financial and political) is an excellent example of a global risk.
And keep in mind the current presidents use of drones killing innocent people just to get things in context here.
Who is not?
I dont live in USA, and I do not care about your internal politics, but Hillary would be dissaster for entire world.
You know what people with prejudices do? They keep distance.
When a person have a history of using force as a solution ("just apply more") - that's trouble.
If it is prejudiced and hostile at all, then every country is prejudiced and hostile to almost every other country. That includes Mexico to central American countries.
He almost did: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83
However, to his credit he learned from this mistake and decided to take a less confrontational line with the Soviets - a change that he deserves a lot of credit for.
Edit: See "Arsenals of Folly" by Richard Rhodes.
It also of course sparked youth protests all across western Europe; they were concerned that "warmonger" Reagan was going to use them as the battlefield in his chess game with the Soviets. Pentagon strategists talked of using tactical nukes to destroy Soviet armies.
Yes it was scary times, but we won. The Soviets are gone, and the 80s-90s were a period of unparalleled prosperity in the U.S. and much of the world actually.