Nothing stops capital from rushing into non-luxury housing, acquiring it, and then renting it at new "market rates".
You will need to swamp SFBA with housing (tens of thousands of new units a year) in order to drive down market prices.
Everything I wrote presupposes that all housing is rented at the market rate, including the non-luxury housing.
I suppose you put quotes around "market rates" as a form of sarcasm, but aside from rent-controlled units, all housing rents at the equilibrium market rate determined by supply and demand. If someone jacks up the price of older apartments and is still able to find tenants, all that proves is that those apartments had been rented out at a price below the market rate before now. The market rate is quite simply the amount people are willing to pay.
Hence, my quotes around "market rate". The tech industry can afford to keep pouring salaries into employee pockets, therefore, tech workers will always be able to price out non-tech workers seeking affordable rents in the bay area.
You will never be able to outbuild what Facebook, Google, and the like can pay their workers. Zoning is not the issue, a slanted labor market is. And the tech labor market will continue to soak up whatever housing comes onto the market.
The high salaries of developers in the Bay Area are a reaction to that feedback loop. The companies you listed offer lower salaries to workers outside of the Bay Area, using what they call Prevailing Market Rate to determine pay bands.
I don't really understand why Apple, Facebook, Google, et al. spend so much money on hiring in the Bay Area instead of hiring aggressively outside of it in cheaper regions. Are they benefiting from the network effect anymore? I can understand startups needing to be close to VC funding sources, but how does it benefit the larger players?
Unless its more financially advantageous to train new engineers then keep paying the ones in SFBA? 7 billion people? Its not like only the brilliant ones are in SF.
So more than you think in fact.
None of those companies are going to restructure their engineering cultures just to relieve housing pressure in SF. Just like the rest of the mainstream, they probably see the problem in SF as one of artificially limited supply, not demand.
"Never" is a long time. Mature companies don't continue with gangbuster growth, and eventually company management has to look around for savings. San Francisco isn't immune to what happened to the rust belt cities.
NYC 1921-1929 (prior modern zoning): "The total of 658,780 new dwellings averaged 73,198 units per year, a figure ... In the most prolific year, 1927, 94,367 dwellings were built"
https://books.google.com/books?id=AS1bGTRSggYC&pg=PA122&lpg=...
Heh. Okay, let's not even try.
Or just wait ... what, another year or two ?
Every 5-8 years you have an opportunity to buy SFBA real estate at fire sale prices. If all of the activists and hand-wringers and bloggers[1] spent half as much time doing some simple financial planning instead of bemoaning the end of SF as they know it, they'd all be owners instead of renters and the "character" of the city (as they understand it) would be saved.
Or is it different this time ?[2]
[2] No, it isn't.
Ok, when do we start?