On TFVC:
> it sends way WAY too many files up and down constantly
It sends literally zero files anywhere until you interact with the server, as any sane server-based version control system would do. I don't know about your workflow but I don't know what you consider a reasonable amount of I/O to sync a workspace. You can elect "Local" workspaces since around TFS 2012 which can work completely disconnected if you choose.
> branching/merging is expensive as all heck
It's folder-based branching and can be done very quickly/cheaply if you don't store your entire company in source control. And how well does Git handle large files? Git is opinionated on branches and creates them cheaply/quickly; TFVC evolved from CVS-type systems where this was not the prevailing mindset, but again I don't know what you're considering "expensive." Maybe where you work?
> even Microsoft's internal teams are utilising Git and Github
Which isn't evidence of anything other than it's their current tool of choice. That has a lot less to do with future direction of their enterprise products than you're assuming here.
> Microsoft's own consultants
> Microsoft's internal teams
> the Windows team within Microsoft
Do you have insider info or are you just trying to sound like you do?