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Comment by areyousure | Hacker News Reader

Anything written. I'll be particularly happy with higher "quality" sources -- books, quotations in newspapers, etc. -- but honestly, I'm not that picky and will accept an anonymous comment on a random forum.

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"Fotland, an early computer Go innovator, also worked as chief engineer of Hewlett Packard’s PA-RISC processor in the 70s, and tested the system with his Go program. “There’s some kind of mental leap that has to happen to get you past that block, and the programs ran into the same issue. The issue is being able to look at the whole board, not the just the local fights.”

Fotland and others tried to figure out how to modify their programs to integrate full-board searches. They met with some limited success, but by 2004, progress stalled again, and available options seemed exhausted. Increased processing power was moot. To run searches even one move deeper would require an impossibly fast machine. The most difficult game looked as if it couldn’t be won."

http://www.wired.com/2014/05/the-world-of-computer-go/

The article then goes on to discuss how Monte Carlo was the real breakthrough.

Thank you for the source. I believe this is a good written example of how conservative estimates were as recently as May of 2014.

Nonetheless, the quoted estimate in the article (mentioned twice, including in the second sentence) is "I think maybe ten years", ie 2024, which while inaccurate is probably "in our lifetimes".

There are a lot of quotes in that article though. And a number are in the vein of not being sure how they were going to get from where they were to better-than-human. Not my field in any case but I think it's fair to say that there was a lot of skepticism about even the general path going forward even relatively recently.

It seems unlikely that a computer will be programmed to drub a strong human player any time soon, Dr. Reiss said. ''But it's possible to make an interesting amount of progress, and the problem stays interesting,'' he said. ''I imagine it will be a juicy problem that people talk about for many decades to come.''[1]

Not quite what you are after, but it's pretty clear that he didn't think it would be beating the world champion in 14 years.

[1] NY Times, 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/01/technology/in-an-ancient-g...

That was before companies like Google were building datacenter-size computers for fun.

"Experts had predicted it would take another decade for AI systems to beat professional Go players."

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/have-we-hit-a-major-ar...

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