Google Buzz is brilliant, Facebook just lost half its value
calacanis.com
calacanis.com
Let's assume Google Buzz is undeniably better than Facebook.
Let's also assume no one is really invested in the 90% of Facebook functionality that Google Buzz doesn't address.
Hell, let's assume any user who tries Google Buzz will instantly declare eternal allegiance to Larry and Sergey and immediately delete their Facebook account.
Even with all those dramatically dubious flamebait claims, how the hell is Google going to get everyone to try Buzz. Since when do better products automatically win in the tech marketplace? If Calacanis is going for pageviews then I say well-played, but if he actually believes this tripe then he's dumber than he is arrogant.
I presume they'll have a standalone Buzz application at the 2.0 or something similar. That will let an established gmail-only social graph generate lots of activity and use, seeming enticing to yahoo and hotmail (and all third-party email account providers) users that can now join/be invited in on the social-web-2.0-sharing fun.
I mean, I might be exaggerating, but among my friends I can name at max 10 people who don't have a Gmail and a Facebook. I'm guessing that the true proportion lies somewhere between the extreme situations we're in.
Most people associate facebook with procrastination\lols.
More people prefer to procrastinate\lol than to work.
Therefore more people will prefer to Facebook than to Buzz.
100+ people like it. ~200 comments from quality people.
This is game over for Facebook for everyone who doesn't play Farmville.
I've never seen pickup like that, and that is with just 2,000 followers.
I have 25k followers on my fanpage on Facebook and 5k on my normal facebook page.
in fact, i've never seen pickup like that on my blog with 250k uniques a month.
the only thing close to that i've seen is Twitter, but those responses are limited to the 90k followers i have and 140 characters each.
Also, it's not just this thread... scoble is having the same experience: more activity than ever.
it's a targeted network: people you've spoken to + 100% reach for your comments with that network since they HAVE TO go to their inbox.
this really is unprecedented: the reach of email with the power of social networking.
But that's not the same niche as Twitter, and it's certainly not the same niche as Facebook.
Your right about facebook though, it doesn't seem the kind of thing that will pull in the less tech inclined. Although some people would have said that about facebook, with it's plain unchanging layout compared to all the things people could do on myspace.
My Android phone email alerts me every time someone comments, likes, or writes on my page on FB. This is not unprecedented.
don't know of anyone ever doing that...
I really can't agree with your assessment. You and Scoble - and I like you both a lot - are in a vastly different position than the people Google made Buzz for.
You guys are pundits (not in a bad sense - you're thought leaders).
Google made Buzz for end users and enterprise. I really don't think it's useful for end users at this point. Too many are reporting problems and dissatisfaction with the UI. As for enterprise, we'll have to see what they end up rolling out.
I appreciate that Buzz has worked well for you so far, but I feel you're being overly enthusiastic about the product.
Right. The day when every bored geek in the valley gives it a spin.
Mark my words, a year from today Facebook will be in no weaker position than it is today, and Buzz may or may not be relevant, but it certainly won't be dwarfing Facebook—not by a long shot. If you disagree name your metrics, and I'll do a writeup a year from today and whore it up here on Hacker News.
Typically I don't consider you to be as much of a koolaid-drinker as Scoble, but man you really went off the deep-end this time.
Of course they don't always win, but this is what everyone said when MySpace was on top of the world. If Buzz is genuinely better then Facebook needs to be worried. Google has every other ingredient necessary to win.
To answer his questions:
1. Have you used Google Buzz? Yes, I think I'm perceived as a target user. Tried it, quit it. 2. How is Google Buzz better than Facebook? It's not. 3. What advantages does Google Buzz have over Facebook? That it lives in Gmail, but that's still not compelling. 4. What advantages does Facebook have over Google? My friends/social graph algorithms/news feed 5. Did you see this coming? Sure, why wouldn't Google try this. They have 20,000 employees. This maybe took 5 weeks and 3 dev guys to hack up. 6. What do you attribute Google’s recent string of AMAZING products including: Chrome, Android, Nexus One and Buzz? Nexus One has a nice screen resolution. That's about the only good thing.
People seem to want Buzz to fail for some reason. I feel like people saw Wave, decided "Oh, Google failed, they can't possibly make a new product right", and are now trying to pin that on Buzz too.
Anyway, I'm using it, as are a bunch of my friends. People are already using it in my social friend graph, and enthusiastically, too - which is much more than could be said for Wave. I'm not saying it's going to be a huge success, but I think it's silly to just brush it off as crap so quickly.
Funny - due to gmail integration, I'll never use it.
It feels to me like an issue of kool-aid. If you accept the assertion that everyone uses gmail, and that everyone loves the gmail interface, and that people keep gmail open all day (or at least check it fairly often), then Google Buzz seems like a great idea - a social network tied into all the services you use every day.
It breaks down when you start breaking those assertions. If you're not in Gmail every day (e.g. if you use an IMAP client), or if you don't like the interface (but you have to use it, e.g. Google Apps), or if you don't use gmail at all, then Google Buzz becomes a huge hassle to use.
I'd love to love Buzz, because I like awesome things, but it seems to me that the Buzz team just assumes everyone loves Gmail as much as Google does, and that's not going to pan out. They might think Buzz will be a draw to Gmail, but in reality Gmail will be a barrier to Buzz.
What exactly does Buzz offer that Facebook doesn't? What kind of recognition will it have?
This is all very interesting, but it's _far_ too early for this kind of hyperbole.
It has been done before. Do you remember Prodigy? CompuServe? AOL? MySpace?
For that matter, how often do you use the search engines Excite, Lycos, AltaVista, or whatever Microsoft's search engine was before Bing?
Users go where the user experience is pleasant. Advertisers look for click-throughs, and try to estimate eyeball-minutes for the major sites, and Google has a fair chance of beating Facebook with Buzz. Not overnight, but steadily. Many of my Facebook friends haven't seen the Google Buzz roll-out yet, but they have seen the new Facebook homepage roll-out, and they don't like it.
AFTER EDIT: And it occurs to me that Calacanis's main statement, that Facebook lost value, is hard to test while Facebook is not publicly traded. But Google's value is easy to track in the stock market. If this move looks stupid to Google investors, their behavior will show that.
Me-too or even evolutionary won't cut it for draining Facebook of its users. It's got to provide signficantly more value immediately upon signing up. So far, it doesn't.
The Facebook social graph is established by people you meet in person and who decide later to send you a friend invite, or people you knew at some point who saw your picture on someone else's friends list. The strength of the connection is determined by Facebook based on how often you interact with or stalk that person.
The Gmail social graph is people you actually communicate with, and is more dynamic in the sense that you probably communicate with more people on a day-to-day basis then you interact/stalk with on Fb.
The question is, which of these makes for a more relevant following system, and for what kind of user?
Perhaps one way to think of it is that people who are all about sharing pictures will prefer Fb, but those who are all about sharing ideas will prefer Buzz. Which target demographic has more income?
A very good question. That's about what I'm thinking as I consider making Buzz my primary channel for interacting with my friends. I'm considering "ideas" more than "income," but I'm not looking for games or cute pictures.
AFTER EDIT:
As I just posted on Facebook, in a thread discussing the New York Times article about Buzz, "rebuilding a whole social graph is a bother. But MIGRATING a social graph to a site that is at least as useful and less annoying might be something much easier to do. I am glad to see some thoughtful competition in this space, the better to kee Facebook honest."
I see some other comments on my Facebook threads and here on HN along the lines of using Facebook to first establish a network of friends, and then using the Next Great Thing in Social Networking to winnow that group of friends to get a dense network of closest friends. That might work for me.
I think it'd be interesting to see how many NEW social network users Buzz will bring in, just because of the simple fact that it makes setting up a brand new network easy as pie (vs FB and having to build up to a nice little community of friends).
Also, in general, no one ever likes facebook UI updates, yet they never leave.
Yeah. Or Friendster. Of course it could happen, but my point is that it is too early to tell what impact Buzz will have.
"Google has a fair chance of beating Facebook with Buzz"
Agreed. But that time is not now and the hyperbole is unwarranted. As you say, steady gains are a possible -- and most likely -- way for Buzz to unseat Facebook.
I may be wrong about Buzz, but my first impression was not good.
Another thing (but that's very imho) is that Google applications still look and feel like Excel. They are certainly very good, but also feel like work.