Can the YC/Ron Conway investment strategy work for smaller angels?
gabrielweinberg.com
gabrielweinberg.com
I don't think there's anything wrong with keeping potential exits in mind, however it seems that most startups change the idea they're building over time, so betting on the team (pg style, and from what I know Ron does this too) rather than the idea or potential market/future acquisition might still work out better.
All that being said, I'm not sure how you would maximize returns, especially because of all the unpredictability.
I don't think, however, that co-investing by itself really increases the odds. Maybe if I co-invested with someone who picks better or gets better deal flow :). But without increasing the actual # of deals, I don't see how you get closer to those big hits.
As for ideas changing, the argument is not to bet against that fact, which would be silly, but instead to bet that the second or third idea will be similar to the bigness potential of the first. That is, if the founder can't come up with an initial idea that doesn't seem like it can realistically result in any kind of decent exit, the probability that they will random walk to one in the future drops. It's of course not zero, but I'm just saying you can increase the odds.
I personally think I bring a lot. Check out my Web site for more info (in my profile). I'm willing to be very hands-on and bring all my experience (both business and technical) to help the startup become a success.