I agree with you: there is a lot to dislike about facebook if you prefer to, but there is also a technological achievement there that is frustratingly difficult to deny. But I don't think they will go the way of AOL (at least not for many more years) for two major reasons: address book and photos. I know plenty of people who have two contact lists: the numbers in their phone and the people they are friends with on facebook. Sure, systems like the one Palm has let you download your contact list from facebook, but until most people are aware of that option, they will continue to use facebook as the way to keep track of people. And photos. Man, was that a killer app for that site. I personally know several friends who never wanted to sign up for facebook, but ended up having to do it so they could see their friend's wedding pictures or baby pictures or vacation pictures. And I also know friends who put their pictures on facebook and nowhere else, because they don't do back-ups or have a consistent place to store them locally and assume facebook will always have their pictures for them.

Until people can easily get contacts and pictures off of facebook and onto another accessibly sharing service in an automated fashion, they will continue to depend on it.