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Comment by chvid | Hacker News Reader

Russia and China are quite different and in different situations. China benifits hugely by the drop in commodity prices and Russia does the opposite.

It is also much easier to understand the strategic goals of China:

This "dispute" will eventually amount to nothing; it is mere posturing showing the Americans that any military action will be too costly.

In a couple of decades; Taiwan will join China in a manner similar to what happened to Hong Kong and Macau. This will happen when the wealth of the average mainland Chinese is compareable to that of the average Taiwanese and China will be Taiwan's absolutely dominant trading partner.

When this happens China will for purposes have broken American control of the South China sea.

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This is one of the least informed posts I've ever seen on HN about cross strait issues.

Unlike HK or Macau, Taiwan is a fully democratic state and has been for decades. Also unlike people in HK or Macau, Taiwanese don't consider themselves Chinese.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/12/we-are-no-compatriots-of...

The only way China could annex the island would entering a war. That would be extremely ill-advised considering the US committed to defending Taiwan in that case (due to the Taiwan relations act).

>> That would be extremely ill-advised considering the US committed to defending Taiwan.

Maybe ten years ago, I would say it would never happen.

However, fighting several wars in the middle east, the Russian annexation of Crimea and the US not doing anything, let alone NATO not doing anything, leads me to hesitate to say anything would be done to stop it. Maybe this changes over the next decade, but if it were to happen soon, I have my doubts the US would have the moral constitution to do anything to stop it.

It certainly doesn't help that Europe, particularly France, has spent the past two decades selling China the weapons and tech to do the invasion.

That said, Taiwan is a country of roughly similar population and economic clout as Australia. Standing by and ignoring an act of war on that scale would be devastating to international stability (and US security interests).

I would imagine that the precedent the US would set with not honoring is defense agreement would have enormous repercussions for its relationship and bargaining power with both South Korea and Japan.

That would tip the balance towards US intervention.

If the US and NATO in general let Taiwan fall, it would pretty much guarantee Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand to start nuclear programs.

That's probably true. And if so, it means that it is probably not in China's interest to take Taiwan.

:-)

I was mostly referring to the what I believe be the strategic thinking of the Chinese communists.

"Also unlike people in HK or Macau, Taiwanese don't consider themselves Chinese."

That is not my impression. But it is hard to gage for me.

Polls on that very topic are a regular part of election cycles in Taiwan. Back in the late 80s there was a sizable minority of Taiwanese people identified themselves as Chinese and many others identified as Chinese and Taiwanese.

Now about 2/3 of the population identifies as Taiwanese, about 1/3 identifies as Taiwanese and Chinese and the percentage identifying as Chinese is less than the standard error of the surveys. The long term trend shows no sign of slowing down or reversing either.

If you're interested in the topic, Zhengda (aka NCCU) has an election study center and publishes their findings.

Nope

Victory for Tsai Ing-wen, head of a party promoting independence from China, will likely usher in uncertain relations between Taipei and Beijing

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/taiwan/121031...

Foxconn (Taiwanese manufacturer for Apple) decision to invest a whopping $5 billion in India has caused unease in China as it marks the first top international firm opting for India amid a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-08-10/news...

Taiwan GDP per capita $30,000

China GDP per capita $3,000

Mark Hart: The Yuan Devaluation Still Has 50% To Go http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/01/mark-hart-the-yuan-devaluat...

Your GDP numbers are wrong. The gap is factor 2-3.

If you Google the GDP numbers, The GDP for the Republic of China (Taiwan) is $31,900USD and China is $6,800USD. ~4.7x.

I don't know the history of China's takeover of Macau. But in case of Hong Kong it was mostly legal and diplomatic reasons (of the UK). Taiwan is an independent democracy, it's very unlikely they'd willingly agree to that.

Personally I'd rather bet on the CCP loosing/giving-up power than Taiwan joining the Mainland. And Hong Kong could possibly be one of the triggers.

Not to mention US loosing Taiwan [and South Korea] as huge allies would be almost as bad as loosing Israel. They won't let that happen.

Same for Macau:

"Shortly after Portugal's 1974 Carnation Revolution, which overthrew the Estado Novo dictatorship, the new government determined it would relinquish all its overseas possessions. In 1976, Lisbon redefined Macau as a "Chinese territory under Portuguese administration" and granted it a large measure of administrative, financial, and economic autonomy. Three years later, Portugal and China agreed to regard Macau as "a Chinese territory under (temporary) Portuguese administration".[17][45] The Chinese and Portuguese governments commenced negotiations on the question of Macau in June 1986. The two signed a Sino-Portuguese Joint Declaration the next year, making Macau a special administrative region (SAR) of China.[46] The Chinese government assumed formal sovereignty over Macau on 20 December 1999.[47]"

in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau#History

>Taiwan will join China in a manner similar to what happened to Hong Kong and Macau.

this is not a foregone conclusion. it could in fact (and probably will) remain independent like Singapore.

I think it is a foregone conclusion in the Chinese communist party.

Wrt. Singapore. There is a still a bit of unconquered land between that and the mainland :-)

China has too many nervous neighbors for any change in relationship between TW and CN to change the USs role in the SCS region. You have Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan all having disputes with China. So even if TW were to drop claims, you have quite a few restless neighbors left. Besides, Mr Ma the acquiescer is stepping down. And most young people prefer an independent identity.

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