Missing Malaysia Jet MH370 Weeks Away from Keeping Secrets Forever
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
A plane crashes in an area with no landmass and we lose it. We've overfished many species to near-extinction because we completely failed to understand exactly how many fish there actually are. The sea acts as a natural eraser for human habitation, sometimes wiping out all evidence of entire communities within hours. We lose all kinds of cargo into the ocean and haven't the faintest clue where it goes. We're only beginning to figure out how to convert seawater into potable form effectively. The majority of our planet is covered in something we can't even figure out how to build habitats on top of without piling up dirt underneath.
The belief that we have any mastery over this planet seems to humbly disintegrate when looking at our relationship to our oceans
A town of 5,000 people that is situated on land will usually also import loads of fuel and food. So a cruise ship isn't really the same thing as a town, but it has quite a bit in common with it if you look at the town as a habitat.
And let's be thankful for that. We need it.
You don't need to master something to wreak it.
Sadly, our ignorance is doing both.
That is symptomatic of our child like relationship with the environment. We are deeply dependant but have little understanding or agency.
It is obvious that high fish stocks will allow more catches than near extinction levels. Catching 1% of 1 billion is better than 40% of 1 million. Yet we continue to treat fish as a short term commodity to be exploited.
We may lack mastery of the planet, but that is no excuse for burying our head in the sand. We have a huge impact and we cannot just opt-out of that.
It doesn't even have to be governments, Sea Shepherd do some good work and show what can be achieved.
The other problem is poor countries not able to secure their own territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zones. For instance in West Africa many navies and coastguards have ships with endurance measured in days. If you're up to no good you just wait for them to come alongside. RUSI are currently floating the idea of giving them proper offshore patrol vessels paid for from the aid budget to enable them to actually patrol and secure their waters.
Tourists seems quite shocked that there isn't more that could be done. Everything in a city is very safe, it's pretty hard to accidentally kill yourself. It stands to reason that we should put up some more signs, or have someone stop them from doing something silly.
We had storms last week. A car was found in a car park next to a beach. The guy was working somewhere near the beach. He was never seen again. No one knows what happened. The search and rescue do a days search, but where do you look?
Recently: http://www.mercurynews.com/central-coast/ci_29405514/san-jos...
http://abc7news.com/news/pacifica-man-drowns-trying-to-save-...
Or this one from 2013, in Lisbon (college hazing gone wrong) http://news.sky.com/story/1183112/portugal-five-students-mis...
Lost light house keepers at Flannan Isles , 'Eilean Mor', 1900 ~ http://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofScotland/The-E... and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDqhQ9wlQxQ
Just last week there was a lot of fuss in the news about how reckless the tourists are becoming, and then the very next day after the news hype, a tourist was sucked out into the sea and drowned.. and this happens despite there being lots of other people nearby.
It's gotten to the point that some tour guides have just stopped going there because people just don't listen to warnings or understand the danger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSgSMZsMh4A
They all were rescued later, btw. But it was clearly a close thing.
I skimmed the article and still can't figure out why we're weeks away from a point of no return. Is the search going to be called off? Is there a transponder that's going to give out? Why can't the journalist just put the important information up front, instead of a bunch of irrelevant crap about someone's sleep deprivation?
4 billion years = 208 billion weeks, right?
What do you like in this format? I genuinely don't understand how it can sell, but if it does, there must be something?
Plus, like a stick of gum, sometimes you just have nothing to do and it fills the time.
[0] http://archive.wired.com/politics/law/magazine/17-04/ff_diam...
It's an intentional lie because "How the MH370 Search is Going" or whatever won't get clicks.
In the old days, they'd buy your paper if they could scan all the stories and get information easily. Now, the reader is only looking at one story referred by a search engine or blogpost or link farm.
Once I discover it's in fact a long-form article, I will space bar-skim to see if there is any merit, and stop reading in 99% of cases.
At least clickbait spam content has the class to let you off the hook after 5 seconds.
You click on an article about MH370 or the Paris attacks or something, and the fourth paragraph is "Jean-Denis lives in a quiet suburb of Orlean with his two children and their dog, a basset hound golden retriever mix named Harmonie." Good god! It's the slow, lingering death by a thousand cuts.
"But Jean-Denis didn't always live a comfortable life in the suburbs. The first seven years of his life he grew up with his grandparents in Transylvania. The potato crop wasn't always good, and the long winters taught him about patience. A trait he's been needing in the search for the MH370."
Actually, one question I used to like to ask people: "In bookshops, what qualifies a book to move from 'fiction' to 'literature'?" (yes, you can get poetry and whatnot in the literature section, but it's primarily fiction-based)
literature ⊃ literary fiction
There's plenty of literature that is not fiction.This is exactly what I've wanted but never known how to express it ... is there such a thing? I would love to browse a list of news stories distilled to factual bullet points. Sigh. One can dream :)
I consider it to be interesting information. And the author has chosen to tell you an interesting story instead of just a fact fact.
If the goal was to show you something that would satiate the need to be interested then I think the story does a much better job.
When someone says they'll do one thing but do something else, that's lying.
Interestingly, back when I was an intern, BT used to charge an exorbitant rate for those distress calls. I once wrote-up the whole internship thing http://williamedwardscoder.tumblr.com/post/17282439831/an-ei...
"I was pretty uncomfortable when I found that mayday calls were being charged at the highest rate - £8 per minute if I recall correctly - even though Inmarsat itself explicitly carried those calls for free. I remember the manager I asked about that, when I found those calls in real logs, not meeting my eyes as he talked distantly about why that was."
Basically why can't we use the Inmarsat network for more than distress but any and all planes report to some tamper proof system every minute?
(Yes I know how many flights there are, but you don't need to store the data once a plane has reached its destination successfully)
Any yahoo with $250 and a shipping address can have one of these, yet two years later we still don't know where this Malaysian flight went to?
Are you saying 100% coverage is not the case?
Another complication is there's almost no such thing as a "backport" in aviation. The equipment a particular plane model is certified for is the equipment it has for life, save for some software updates. And this isn't in the category of a software update, it's new physical equipment. The easiest part is a new weight and balance for every airplane getting the new equipment. Harder is wiring the thing in, and getting it space in the cockpit - that's often quite difficult. If it requires integration of any sort, very difficult. There's extremely low willingness to substantially alter certified aircraft. There are individual systems that make up a whole, change any one part, you change the whole. The liability is too high for the return, these kinds of lost plane events are rare.
Aircraft have whats known as a Supplementary Type Certificate, which permits changes to a certified aircraft. Even a major upgrade from radial engine to turboprop has been authorized for some aircraft, including DC-3 transports made in the 1940s.
Another example is Southwest Airlines. The 737-300 series jets have glass cockpit upgrades for a common configuration between a 737-300 (Classic) and a newer 737-700 (NG).
If the ICAO mandates upgrades, it will happen. It might not be cheap, but its quite doable.
Considering Southwest currently has 122 737-300s in service, they wouldn't upgrade them if it wasn't available at a reasonable cost:
http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Southwest%20Airlines.htm
Cockpit upgrades for 737s:
http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/issue/feature/Product-Focus-...
Cockpit upgrades for C172 type aircraft:
Actually, not that many. There are less than 20,000 commercial flights in the air at any given a time.
- Giving family members (maybe a few thousand people) closure.
- Understanding what happened, and potentially making a few improvements to plane safety as a result.
Given the very slim chance of them even finding the plane and learning anything useful out of it… I don't see how the search justifies a 9-figure price tag. (I don't mean to be insensitive)
Honestly, $130m is not a lot of money to an industry such as that. I'll bet the majority of it was covered by insurance anyways.
Well Wikipedia says a Boeing 777-200ER costs $261.5 million[1]. That's about double the cost for the search. If it's possible to prevent even one future mishap as a result of learning anything the cost is justified.
Besides closure is important for the families and friends of the passengers. Especially with crazy articles saying the plane could have landed in Kazakhstan[2]. Imagine the suffering people must be going through thinking their loved ones are 95% dead but 5% possibly maybe caught up in a crazy conspiracy. Even if it's 1% or 0.001% likely it could be enough to keep one awake at night.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777 [2] http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/02/jeff-wise-mh370...
It sounds like Inmarsat is now making basic ping location available for free:
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/182223-inmarsat-now-givin...
edit: though I guess that fact that you are connected to a specific tower leaks location information
A post I saw here a couple of weeks ago suggested a simpler method of reducing location tracking than ones I had been thinking of:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10985599
You would add extra RF spectrum overhead and a little bit of latency for making and receiving calls.
In general the basic thing that should happen to recover location privacy in mobile services is completely decoupling payment, device identifiers, and routing. Right now they are all linked or trivially linkable (your carrier sees you register with your IMEI and IMSI, and it assigns you a phone number -- rather than registering with a random per-session IMEI, paying for the service with a blinded digital payment token, and getting a phone number, if you want one, from a third party VoIP provider).
This: "Yeah, I know what quotation marks mean..." It comes off as snappy.
The question persists simply because its answer continues to be "yes". The plane is somewhere, and you didn't look there.
It could be found in a few years or in a few decades. Although reading the flight recorders by then could be problematic.
It's not the first time anyway, a British plane disappeared on the Andes in 1947 (after sending a cryptic Morse message BTW) and was found 50 years later, so I wouldn't despair.
The ocean is deep. Sediment drifting down from above layers the debris. Ocean currents disperse the light aluminum fragments that remain from the ocean impact.
An undersea landslide covers the fuselage or it slides down into an underwater canyon, separating and breaking apart.
I vote "forever".
Eventually (could be a hundred years but I expect less) there will be a swarm of autonomous submersible robots doing detailed scans. They will find all kinds of interesting things - including MH370.
What do you think "add[ing] it to Google Maps" would accomplish? What makes you think the data analysis is easily crowd-sourced? I.e, what makes you think that analyzing the data requires no special experience or expertise?
>there will be a swarm of autonomous submersible robots doing detailed scans
Why? What would be the economic case for doing this? Building machines that work at the extreme depths of the sea floor is incredibly hard. The search for a single lost airplane (and it really is just the one, not a single other commercial airliner is unaccounted for) certainly isn't going to fund this pipe dream.
Gold lost on sunken ships!
Give us better publicly-accessible seafloor maps for that bit of ocean?
>> there will be a swarm of autonomous submersible robots doing detailed scans
> Why? What would be the economic case for doing this?
Immediately? Who knows. He did qualify his statement with an "eventually/100 years," though. I can imagine such robots would be useful for environmental monitoring, mineral prospecting, and defense reasons. Especially if the cost decreases.
IIRC, there already are automated scientific buoys that drift with the currents, do programmed dives, and transmit their measurements by satellite.
Edit: here is a link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwater_glider
Edit2: here is a paper about installing mapping sonar in such a vehicle: http://www.physics.mun.ca/~bdeyoung/Zhou_Icebergs_2014.pdf
I have no idea what format the sonar data is in, but I highly suspect that it is not in the form of familiar imagery in which parts of a commercial airliner would be readily identified by untrained observers.
[1] http://www.sarawakreport.org/2016/01/court-case-opens-agains...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Shaariibuugiin_Altan...
[3] http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/7/28/malaysias-na...
[4] http://www.sarawakreport.org/2015/11/kevin-morais-drew-up-th...
[5] http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/kevin-mo...
[6] http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/true-stories/mala...
[7] http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/malaysia-...
[8] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/01/27...
[9] http://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/banker-murder-connectio...
[10] http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/zahid-de...
[11] http://www.theantdaily.com/Main/Lindsay-Lohan-Paris-Hilton-a...
[12] http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/12/29/fbi-probes-wolf-of...
So we assume for a moment that some organized group deliberately did something to this aircraft. Who has the motivation to execute such a scheme?
Government agencies I rule out - because of lack of a cover story. It does a government no good to leave a massive mystery open to the court of press speculation, especially for so long. It grows distrust in the populace and gives the perception of incompetence, which undermines power. Plus the political risks of being uncovered are too great. There needs to be a cover.
I'd rule out corporations or business moguls for the same reason - leaving mysterious loose ends is not in their best interest. Too much risk to reputation.
Terrorists I rule out as well - they are motivated by public gestures that further the cause. They'd have claimed it immediately and even if the plot was steal the plane and use it later, they'd have done it already.
So what nefarious organization is left? What group would be OK with leaving a mysterious unsolved disappearance out in the open? Criminal syndicates.
Professional criminals are in the business of doing bad things and getting away with it without a trace. To a career criminal, an unsolved mystery is a point of pride.
If there was someone or something of extremely high value aboard the plane, perhaps being smuggled, organized criminals would have the motivation to extract it, far away from law enforcement or even satellites, and bury the evidence without a trace.
But they would have a difficult time landing an aircraft of that size anywhere on land without detection. Eventually it would turn up.
So how about on water? Ditch the plane gently on the ocean, Captain Sully style, extract whatever is in the cabin and then let it sink slowly. Disappears without a trace. Do it far enough away from civilization and nobody will find it.
Pretty elaborate heist, and absurdly risky. But criminals aren't known for being overly risk averse. And even if they botched the job, we'd never know about it.
So that's my theory over who would be responsible. Definitely backed up by what you're saying about the level of organized crime in the Malaysian political world.
That plane was carrying some person or thing that a highly corrupt, well financed individual or group wanted very badly - either to take for themselves or destroy. And so far, they've gotten away with it.
http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/taiwan-mh370-pilot-mysteriou...
They looked into the North Corridor to see if the plane flew there. I don't think they found anything.
Talking say 10 years from now.
These articles go way beyond standard text/image content.
And likely more scary is the fact that once a nuclear submarine submerges, nobody knows where it is. We can't even find this plane. A moving submarine beneath the vast body of ocean even more so.
I wonder if it's possible to develop xray vision that sees through the earth's ocean.
We saw a confirmed example of such a guy almost exactly one year later (8 March 2014, 24 March 2015):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanwings_Flight_9525
The rest are just the details.